Patrick Copen
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
K%22.7%
BB%18.9%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 67% | 1.4 | 11.1% | 16.7% | -5.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 67% | 1.4 | 11.1% | 16.7% | -5.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 93 | 401 | 98 | 54 | 3 | 91% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 93 | 401 | 98 | 54 | 3 | 91% | 4.2 | 24.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 0.7% | 3.59 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 524 | 152 | 84 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.9% | 17.9% | 5.0% | 0.5% | 3.59 | 3.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 524 | 152 | 84 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.0% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 0.4% | 3.59 | 2.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 17 | 15 | 70 | 331 | 82 | 55 | 12 | 88% | 4.1 | 20.1% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 7.62 | 6.11 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 52 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.7% | 18.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 18.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 134 | 605 | 144 | 107 | 17 | — | — | 23.8% | 17.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 6.38 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.7% | 18.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 139 | 589 | 135 | 97 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 4.83 | 4.75 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 139 | 589 | 136 | 92 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 4.73 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 134 | 89 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 129 | 86 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.74 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 122 | 84 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 120 | 505 | 113 | 80 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 5.08 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 112 | 471 | 103 | 76 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 16.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 42 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 4.80 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 91 | 62 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 4.70 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 104 | 69 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 108 | 73 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 106 | 73 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 102 | 72 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.95 | 5.04 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 94 | 70 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 16.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 696 | 2937 | 666 | 462 | 70 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 4.82 | 4.48 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 133 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 4.82 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 64 | 284 | 1274 | 262 | 220 | 20 | 93% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 896 | 184 | 155 | 14 | 93% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Copen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 22.7% | 18.9% | 2.0% | — | 4.71 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 416 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Jaime Schultz R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.56 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 2.3% | .297 | 3.80 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 209 | -0.76 | 2.14 | 391 | 86 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 80 |
| Carlos Hernandez R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 123 | 79 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.44 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.3% | .248 | 5.06 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 84 | +0.62 | 4.44 | 326 | 77 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 77 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 76 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 76 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 75 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 74 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 74 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.87 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | .276 | 6.93 | 18.4% | -4.0% | 47 | +1.06 | 4.01 | 412 | 74 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 73 |
| Aiden McIntyre R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 21.3% | 17.2% | 1.2% | .324 | 4.11 | 24.4% | 16.2% | 51 | -0.04 | 2.76 | 193 | 73 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.2% | 15.2% | 1.1% | .278 | 4.18 | 16.7% | 2.4% | 83 | -0.17 | 3.46 | 321 | 73 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.45 | 16.0% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 115 | 73 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 72 |
| Pedro Payano R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.77 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.48 | 19.2% | 5.3% | 185 | -0.29 | 2.51 | 707 | 72 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 72 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 72 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 131 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 0.90 | 4.87 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |