Patrick Copen
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%7.4%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 22 | 20 | 93 | 401 | 98 | 54 | 3 | 18.4% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 4.03 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 27 | 118 | 524 | 152 | 84 | 2 | 22.9% | 17.9% | 0.5% | 3.59 | 3.70 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 102 | 67 | 9 | 22.0% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 121 | 505 | 119 | 74 | 9 | 23.4% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 116 | 66 | 11 | 22.4% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 4.41 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 123 | 68 | 12 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 126 | 68 | 12 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 126 | 68 | 13 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 122 | 67 | 13 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 118 | 65 | 12 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 121 | 513 | 112 | 64 | 12 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 106 | 62 | 12 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 100 | 60 | 12 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 94 | 58 | 12 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 87 | 55 | 12 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 79 | 53 | 11 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 72 | 50 | 11 | 19.7% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 51 | 226 | 987 | 213 | 167 | 6 | 21.6% | 16.9% | 0.6% | 3.35 | 3.76 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 45 | 200 | 873 | 188 | 148 | 5 | 21.6% | 16.9% | 0.6% | 3.35 | 3.76 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Copen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.0% | 14.6% | 2.0% | — | 4.32 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 385 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 86 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 86 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.95 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.33 | 4.62 | 147 | 82 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 82 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.29 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.63 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.66 | 3.52 | 395 | 80 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 80 |
| Carlos Hernandez R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 123 | 80 |
| Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 79 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .264 | 5.04 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 312 | +1.29 | 2.95 | 492 | 79 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 79 |
| Alex Amalfi R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 207 | 79 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 79 |
| Austin Vernon R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.73 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 4.3% | .325 | 3.73 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 100 | -2.00 | 3.36 | 261 | 79 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 78 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 78 |
| Chayce McDermott R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.86 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 1.9% | .228 | 4.48 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 167 | +0.62 | 3.86 | 408 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 77 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .248 | 5.38 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 84 | +0.70 | 4.68 | 326 | 77 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 77 |
| Peyton Olejnik R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.1% | 13.2% | 1.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 129 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.2 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$1M |
| Totals | $11M | $65M | +$54M | ||