Patrick Copen — OGILVIE

Patrick Copen P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%22.7%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—30

CMD3035

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	2	3	0	67%	1.4	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.27	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	2	3	0	67%	1.4	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.27	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	18	2	3	0	67%	1.4	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	0.9%	3.59	4.03	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	0.9%	3.59	4.03	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	93	401	98	54	3	91%	4.2	24.4%	13.5%	11.0%	0.7%	3.59	3.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	22.9%	17.9%	5.0%	0.5%	3.59	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	22.9%	17.9%	5.0%	0.5%	3.59	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	524	152	84	2	100%	4.4	29.0%	16.0%	13.0%	0.4%	3.59	2.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.90	4.92	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.90	4.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	LAD	26	23	116	523	136	69	14	88%	4.5	26.0%	13.2%	12.8%	2.7%	5.90	4.04	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	12	53	12	10	1	100%	6.2	22.7%	19.0%	3.6%	2.0%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	128	576	148	79	15	—	—	25.7%	13.7%	12.0%	2.6%	5.82	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	139	589	135	97	12	100%	5.8	23.0%	16.5%	6.5%	2.1%	4.85	4.76	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	139	589	136	93	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	15.8%	7.3%	2.1%	4.74	4.70	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	137	580	134	90	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	15.4%	7.6%	2.2%	4.71	4.71	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	133	562	129	87	13	100%	6.1	22.9%	15.4%	7.5%	2.3%	4.75	4.78	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	127	537	122	84	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.0%	2.5%	4.85	4.92	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	120	505	113	80	14	100%	6.0	22.3%	15.9%	6.4%	2.7%	5.00	5.09	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	61	258	59	42	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	16.5%	6.5%	2.1%	4.90	4.81	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	91	62	9	100%	5.8	23.1%	15.8%	7.3%	2.2%	4.79	4.75	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	107	452	104	70	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	15.4%	7.6%	2.3%	4.76	4.76	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	112	473	108	73	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	15.4%	7.5%	2.4%	4.80	4.83	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	111	469	106	73	12	100%	6.2	22.7%	15.6%	7.0%	2.6%	4.91	4.98	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	108	456	102	73	13	100%	6.0	22.3%	15.9%	6.4%	2.8%	5.06	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	99	593	2502	571	393	61	100%	6.0	22.8%	15.7%	7.1%	2.5%	4.87	4.51	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	133	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	15.7%	7.1%	2.5%	4.87	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		78	72	331	1466	306	236	23	92%	4.2	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	1.6%	4.35	4.23	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	44	200	887	185	143	14	92%	4.2	20.9%	16.1%	4.8%	1.6%	4.35	4.23	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Copen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	22.7%	19.0%	2.0%	—	4.72	23.1%	7.1%	416	-0.34	—	—	—
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	87
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	80
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	78
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	78
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	77
Luke Albright R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	21.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.359	5.91	19.3%	2.5%	70	+1.89	4.02	329	77
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	76
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	75
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	75
Matthew Thompson R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	22	SP	5.26	19.4%	16.5%	3.1%	.286	5.29	17.7%	0.8%	105	+0.03	5.03	411	75
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	75
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	75
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	75
Jeff Thompson R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	15.2%	15.2%	1.3%	.278	4.35	16.7%	2.4%	83	-0.09	3.67	321	73
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Aiden McIntyre R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	21.3%	17.2%	1.2%	.324	3.82	24.4%	16.2%	51	-0.34	2.76	193	73
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	73
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	73
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.0%	13.9%	1.6%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	115	73
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	133	22.8%	16.3%	0.88	4.85
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98