Yanzel Correa — OGILVIE

Yanzel Correa P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%16.2%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%-0.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.60	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	39	188	34	24	4	0%	1.8	12.8%	14.8%	-2.0%	1.9%	6.98	4.91	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	39	188	34	24	4	0%	1.8	12.8%	14.8%	-2.0%	1.9%	6.98	4.91	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	39	188	34	24	4	0%	1.8	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	2.1%	6.98	4.55	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	36	197	30	32	5	0%	1.8	11.1%	19.4%	-8.3%	3.8%	11.36	6.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	36	197	30	32	5	0%	1.8	11.1%	19.4%	-8.3%	3.8%	11.36	6.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	36	197	30	32	5	0%	1.8	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.5%	11.36	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	37	0	54	273	76	36	2	0%	1.5	20.6%	15.6%	5.0%	1.0%	6.71	3.85	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	37	0	54	273	76	36	2	0%	1.5	20.6%	15.6%	5.0%	1.0%	6.71	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	COL	37	0	54	273	76	36	2	0%	1.5	27.8%	13.2%	14.7%	0.7%	6.71	2.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	53	0	55	233	43	33	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	14.3%	4.2%	3.0%	5.53	5.37	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	57	242	48	31	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.9%	5.18	5.01	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	26	0	27	114	21	16	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	14.3%	4.2%	3.0%	5.53	5.37	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	40	0	42	177	35	22	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.9%	5.18	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	291	56	39	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	3.0%	5.32	4.77	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	113	26	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	3.0%	5.32	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		80	0	129	661	103	109	14	0%	1.6	15.6%	16.6%	-1.0%	2.0%	8.04	5.00	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	0	200	1027	160	170	21	0%	1.6	15.6%	16.6%	-1.0%	2.0%	8.04	5.00	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yanzel Correa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	16.2%	16.8%	3.1%	—	5.19	19.3%	5.8%	112	-0.73	—	—	—
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	92
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	89
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	89
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	88
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	88
Jesse Stallings R 2016 · 6.02 FIP	21	SU	6.02	13.2%	15.0%	3.9%	.296	4.10	11.6%	5.0%	128	-1.92	3.48	151	87
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	85
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	85
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	85
Jorge Ramos R 2023 · 5.28 FIP	21	SU	5.28	14.0%	15.6%	2.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.12	110	85
Jesus Colina R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	18	SU	5.30	15.3%	15.2%	2.9%	.265	4.00	17.2%	7.6%	103	-1.30	3.82	128	85
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	84
Omar Ventura R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	21	SU	5.82	15.8%	21.6%	2.4%	.254	3.53	19.5%	3.1%	30	-2.29	3.53	125	84
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	18.8%	13.9%	1.15	5.44
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78