Yanzel Correa
P
Fresno Grizzlies
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2030
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%9.4%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 0 | 39 | 188 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 12.8% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 6.98 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 20 | 0 | 36 | 197 | 30 | 32 | 5 | 11.1% | 19.4% | 3.7% | 11.36 | 6.63 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | COL | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | COL | — | — | 34 | 143 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | COL | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | COL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | COL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | COL | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 0 | 80 | 410 | 51 | 71 | 11 | 12.4% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 8.44 | 5.67 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 0 | 200 | 1025 | 128 | 178 | 28 | 12.4% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 8.44 | 5.67 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yanzel Correa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 93 | -0.44 | — | — | — |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 94 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 91 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.18 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 162 | 90 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 90 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.14 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .317 | 4.64 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.50 | 3.95 | 108 | 90 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 89 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 89 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 89 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 88 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 88 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 88 |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 88 |
| Mike Morrison R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.00 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 128 | -0.86 | 3.32 | 145 | 88 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 88 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.52 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.77 | 3.24 | 288 | 88 |
| Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 88 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.14 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .259 | 4.98 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.84 | 3.88 | 782 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||