Jackson Kirkpatrick
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 23
RHP
6'7" / 250 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%24.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 65 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 19.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 1.02 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 65 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.3% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 1.02 | 2.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 23 | 0 | 30 | 145 | 45 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.7% | 28.2% | -10.6% | 1.5% | 6.37 | 6.03 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 56 | 256 | 72 | 43 | 4 | — | — | 28.1% | 16.8% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 5.44 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 97 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 74 | 324 | 75 | 76 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 23.4% | -0.4% | 0.7% | 3.18 | 4.50 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 202 | 206 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 23.4% | -0.4% | 0.7% | 3.18 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kirkpatrick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.22 | 24.6% | 13.9% | 27 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.98 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.40 | 3.21 | 239 | 91 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 90 |
| Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 89 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 88 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 88 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 88 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 87 |
| Zach Franklin R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 87 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.34 | 334 | 87 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.55 | 2.70 | 192 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 1.03 | 4.34 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |