Jackson Kirkpatrick

Jackson Kirkpatrick P Knoxville Smokies

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%25.5%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	27.4%	19.5%	7.9%	0.0%	1.02	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	27.4%	19.5%	7.9%	0.0%	1.02	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	36.3%	16.8%	19.6%	0.0%	1.02	2.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	28	0	36	179	53	41	1	0%	1.3	20.2%	26.9%	-6.7%	0.9%	7.07	5.30	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	28	0	36	179	53	41	1	0%	1.3	20.2%	26.9%	-6.7%	0.9%	7.07	5.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CHC	8	0	11	46	19	9	0	0%	1.3	41.3%	19.6%	21.7%	0.0%	5.06	2.09	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	9	0	12	55	17	12	0	0%	1.3	30.9%	21.8%	9.1%	0.0%	2.25	3.25	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CHC	11	0	13	78	17	20	1	0%	1.2	21.8%	25.6%	-3.8%	1.3%	13.15	5.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	171	44	25	5	0%	1.0	25.8%	14.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.64	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	20	11	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	14.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	19	11	2	0%	1.0	25.8%	14.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	124	22	0%	1.1	25.8%	14.8%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		61	0	80	358	85	83	2	0%	1.3	23.8%	23.2%	0.6%	0.5%	3.73	4.28	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	899	214	209	4	0%	1.3	23.8%	23.2%	0.6%	0.5%	3.73	4.28	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kirkpatrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	25.5%	17.3%	2.7%	—	4.64	25.8%	11.0%	41	-0.34	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	89
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	88
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	86
Vin Timpanelli R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	27.4%	19.9%	3.7%	.350	4.72	17.9%	4.0%	69	-0.63	4.01	162	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Bryce McGowan R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	23.4%	16.0%	2.3%	.327	4.33	19.2%	6.2%	99	-0.08	3.71	178	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Brody Jessee R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	24.9%	19.4%	1.0%	.333	5.44	17.8%	6.4%	170	+1.46	3.76	199	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Indigo Diaz R 2022 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	24.0%	15.5%	2.4%	.216	4.18	19.7%	6.6%	84	-0.19	1.70	202	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	25.7%	15.8%	1.03	4.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64