Brody Jessee — OGILVIE

Brody Jessee P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%15.2%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%0.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	6	1	1	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.80	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	0	2	6	1	1	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.70	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	34	150	55	23	1	0%	1.7	24.9%	19.4%	5.5%	1.0%	1.83	3.98	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	34	150	55	23	1	0%	1.7	24.9%	19.4%	5.5%	1.0%	1.83	3.98	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	34	150	55	23	1	0%	1.7	36.7%	15.3%	21.3%	0.7%	1.83	2.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	1.7%	6.11	3.76	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	1.7%	6.11	3.76	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	32	0	63	286	66	24	5	0%	2.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	1.7%	6.11	3.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	4.3%	7.17	5.95	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	4.3%	7.17	5.95	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	28	1	48	231	46	28	9	4%	1.7	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.9%	7.17	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	0	59	263	65	26	16	0%	1.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	7.3%	5.98	6.85	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	0	59	263	65	26	16	0%	1.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	7.3%	5.98	6.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CIN	8	0	13	53	18	9	1	0%	1.6	34.0%	17.0%	17.0%	1.9%	3.55	3.42	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CIN	25	0	46	210	47	17	15	0%	1.8	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	7.1%	6.65	6.16	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	23	3	3	1	0%	1.1	15.2%	14.4%	0.8%	3.1%	5.70	5.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	64	286	68	29	17	—	—	24.0%	10.2%	13.7%	5.8%	5.96	6.75	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	57	0	60	251	42	35	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.9%	2.7%	3.1%	5.53	5.51	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	247	42	34	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	13.6%	3.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.46	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	18	15	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.9%	2.7%	3.1%	5.53	5.51	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	27	21	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.6%	3.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	268	45	37	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	3.1%	5.48	5.10	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	117	25	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	3.1%	5.48	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		115	1	206	936	176	119	36	1%	1.8	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	3.8%	5.60	5.20	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	1	200	910	172	116	35	1%	1.8	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	3.8%	5.60	5.20	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Jessee (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	15.2%	14.4%	3.1%	—	5.49	16.9%	3.1%	118	-0.21	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	89
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	87
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	86
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	86
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	85
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	84
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	83
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	83
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	16.3%	14.0%	1.19	5.56
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99