Miguel Mejias — OGILVIE

Miguel Mejias P St. Lucie Mets

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%23.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	1	12	53	9	9	0	9%	1.1	11.5%	21.2%	-9.7%	0.0%	5.25	4.81	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	1	12	53	9	9	0	9%	1.1	11.5%	21.2%	-9.7%	0.0%	5.25	4.81	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	11	1	12	53	9	9	0	9%	1.1	17.0%	17.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.25	3.85	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	0	4	25	3	6	0	0%	1.1	12.0%	24.0%	-12.0%	0.0%	4.15	5.13	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	0	4	25	3	6	0	0%	1.1	12.0%	24.0%	-12.0%	0.0%	4.15	5.13	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	4	0	4	25	3	6	0	0%	1.1	12.0%	24.0%	-12.0%	0.0%	4.15	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	38	0	48	202	59	25	2	0%	1.3	21.6%	14.6%	7.0%	1.3%	3.38	3.83	—
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	38	0	48	202	59	25	2	0%	1.3	21.6%	14.6%	7.0%	1.3%	3.38	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	38	0	48	202	59	25	2	0%	1.3	29.2%	12.4%	16.8%	1.0%	3.38	2.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	47	0	49	209	50	21	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	49	0	51	217	53	20	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.18	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	50	0	53	222	56	20	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.16	4.08	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	53	225	57	20	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.02	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	53	225	58	20	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.8%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	3.99	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	50	0	52	222	57	20	6	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.03	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	24	10	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	35	0	37	156	38	15	5	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.18	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	42	0	44	186	47	17	5	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.16	4.08	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	45	0	47	198	50	17	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.02	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	47	0	49	207	53	18	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.8%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	3.99	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	47	0	49	207	53	18	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	0	250	1054	266	96	30	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.13	3.70	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	77	24	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.13	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		53	1	64	280	53	47	3	2%	1.2	18.9%	16.7%	2.2%	0.9%	3.78	4.13	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	3	200	870	164	145	8	2%	1.2	18.9%	16.7%	2.2%	0.9%	3.78	4.13	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Mejias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.0%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.20	24.6%	15.1%	153	-0.38	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	90
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	86
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	86
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	85
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	84
Gerson Moreno R 2017 · 3.76 FIP	21	SU	3.76	23.6%	12.1%	2.1%	.294	5.22	21.3%	2.0%	17	+1.46	3.44	349	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	84
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	83
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	46	25.0%	9.2%	1.12	4.17
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06