Pedro Da Costa Lemos
P
Modesto Nuts
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 179 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.1%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 17 | 1 | 25 | 104 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 2.55 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 31 | 11 | 90 | 416 | 88 | 40 | 8 | 15.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 35 | 0 | 67 | 290 | 74 | 26 | 6 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 3.63 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 62 | 29 | 9 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 66 | 28 | 9 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 68 | 28 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 68 | 27 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 67 | 27 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 26 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 25 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 13 | 184 | 821 | 149 | 92 | 24 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 4.58 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 14 | 200 | 892 | 162 | 100 | 26 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 4.58 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 216 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 96 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 94 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 93 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 92 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 92 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 91 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 90 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 90 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 90 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.93 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .276 | 5.14 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.21 | 4.24 | 469 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 90 |
| Matt Frawley R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 90 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 90 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.49 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 98 | -0.93 | 2.46 | 228 | 90 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .310 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.63 | 2.36 | 229 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||