Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 18 | 81 | 354 | 72 | 50 | 9 | 82% | 3.7 | 15.1% | 16.7% | -1.6% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 5.50 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 18 | 81 | 354 | 72 | 50 | 9 | 82% | 3.7 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 10 | 8 | 27 | 126 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 80% | 2.7 | 21.2% | 15.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.00 | 6.74 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 37 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.2% | 17.8% | -3.7% | 3.0% | 6.17 | 6.17 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.2% | 17.8% | -3.7% | 3.0% | 6.17 | 6.17 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 89 | 386 | 70 | 63 | 14 | — | — | 18.1% | 16.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 5.81 | 6.34 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.2% | 17.8% | -3.7% | 3.0% | 6.17 | 5.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 43 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.2% | 15.8% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.73 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.3% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.38 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 15.8% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 121 | 509 | 88 | 75 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.11 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 124 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 26 | 108 | 480 | 80 | 78 | 18 | 81% | 3.4 | 16.7% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 5.82 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 48 | 200 | 889 | 148 | 145 | 33 | 81% | 3.4 | 16.7% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 5.82 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Degges (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.17 | 14.2% | 17.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.52 | 17.1% | 2.3% | 191 | -0.65 | — | — | — |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 84 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 77 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 6.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.75 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.76 | 18.4% | 0.8% | 147 | -1.99 | 4.13 | 217 | 77 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 77 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 77 |
| Yorman Galindez R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.60 | 15.9% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 176 | 77 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 77 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 76 |
| Zander Mueth R 2024 · 6.97 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.97 | 11.9% | 20.3% | 4.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 114 | 75 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2029 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 75 |
| Michael YaSenka R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.84 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .288 | 5.74 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | -0.10 | 5.74 | 154 | 75 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 75 |
| Roki Sasaki R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.33 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 81 | +0.06 | 5.27 | 138 | 75 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 74 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 74 |
| Noah Hall R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.31 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .450 | 4.72 | 18.1% | 1.6% | 189 | -0.59 | 4.21 | 201 | 74 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 74 |
| Brayan Romero R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 10.7% | 19.7% | 0.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 164 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 16.4% | 15.5% | 1.14 | 5.75 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |