Charlie Pagliarini

Charlie Pagliarini3B Arkansas Travelers

Age 25 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION363 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .296 / .362

PA242

HR8

K%39

BB%11

BABIP306

ISO167

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	64	59	10	3	0	3	4	34	1	3	0	169	234	373	607	203	318	53	6	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	64	57	15	5	0	4	6	23	1	3	0	263	344	561	905	298	367	36	9	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	450	384	59	17	1	12	51	232	13	6	1	154	275	297	571	143	331	52	11	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	450	362	84	30	3	13	73	171	13	6	1	232	379	439	819	207	394	38	16	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	2 teams	—	581	518	76	20	2	16	54	236	7	8	2	147	237	286	522	139	224	41	9	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	2 teams	—	581	483	112	27	5	24	89	151	7	8	2	232	359	458	817	226	284	26	15	362	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	SEA	—	363	314	70	9	3	15	41	135	6	6	4	223	324	414	738	191	331	37	11	320	103	+1	-0	+0	+1	+10	1.3
YTD	25	AA	SEA	—	363	295	80	11	3	17	60	105	6	6	4	271	404	502	906	231	360	29	17	399	164	+26	-0	+0	+1	+10	3.8
ROS	25	AA	SEA	2%	242	210	41	7	2	8	26	95	4	3	2	195	296	362	658	167	299	39	11	296	85	-4	-0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
ROS	25	MLB	SEA	2%	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0		200		200		296	40	20	282	74	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	SEA	—	368	318	70	9	3	15	42	137	6	6	4	220	322	409	731	189	327	37	11	319	103	+1	-0	-0	+1	+10	1.3
TOT	25	AA	SEA	—	605	524	111	16	5	23	67	230	10	9	6	212	313	393	706	181	321	38	11	311	96	-3	-1	-1	+2	+17	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	SEA	31%	581	506	100	17	3	20	62	223	8	7	4	198	295	362	657	164	304	38	11	300	87	-8	-0	-3	+2	+16	0.7
2028	27	MLB	SEA	42%	609	531	108	19	3	21	65	227	8	7	4	203	300	369	669	166	302	37	11	301	89	-8	-0	-3	+2	+17	0.8
2029	28	MLB	SEA	48%	627	547	113	20	3	22	67	230	8	8	4	207	302	375	677	168	301	37	11	301	89	-8	+0	-4	+2	+18	0.8
2030	29	MLB	SEA	49%	626	546	111	19	3	21	67	229	8	8	4	203	300	364	664	161	299	37	11	300	88	-9	+0	-5	+2	+18	0.7
2031	30	MLB	SEA	50%	621	542	110	19	3	21	66	229	8	7	4	203	299	365	664	162	298	37	11	297	85	-10	-0	-6	+2	+18	0.4
2032	31	MLB	SEA	51%	613	535	106	18	3	20	65	228	8	7	4	198	294	355	650	157	295	37	11	293	82	-12	-0	-6	+2	+17	0.1
2033	32	MLB	SEA	55%	604	527	102	17	3	19	64	227	8	6	4	194	290	345	636	152	290	38	11	287	78	-15	-0	-7	+2	+17	-0.3
2034	33	MLB	SEA	58%	522	456	86	14	2	16	55	199	6	5	3	189	284	333	618	145	285	38	11	281	73	-16	-0	-7	+2	+15	-0.7
2027	26	MLB	SEA	31%	180	157	31	5	1	6	19	69	2	2	1	197	292	357	649	159	301	38	11	286	77	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2028	27	MLB	SEA	42%	256	224	45	8	1	9	27	96	3	3	2	201	295	366	661	165	299	38	11	288	79	-6	-0	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2029	28	MLB	SEA	48%	300	261	53	9	2	10	32	110	4	4	2	203	300	368	667	165	298	37	11	288	79	-7	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.0
2030	29	MLB	SEA	49%	309	269	54	9	2	10	33	113	4	4	2	201	297	361	658	160	296	37	11	287	78	-8	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.0
2031	30	MLB	SEA	50%	312	272	53	9	1	10	33	115	4	4	2	195	291	346	637	151	295	37	11	284	76	-9	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.1
2032	31	MLB	SEA	51%	311	271	53	9	1	10	33	115	4	3	2	196	292	347	639	151	292	37	11	280	73	-10	-0	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
2033	32	MLB	SEA	55%	334	291	55	9	1	10	36	125	4	3	2	189	287	330	617	141	288	37	11	275	69	-12	-0	-4	+1	+9	-0.5
2034	33	MLB	SEA	58%	304	265	49	8	1	9	32	116	4	3	2	185	282	325	607	140	283	38	11	269	64	-12	-0	-4	+1	+9	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2311	2014	393	66	10	74	246	861	29	26	15	195	292	348	640	153	292	37	11	282	74	-68	-1	-21	+8	+65	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	111	19	3	21	69	242	8	7	4	196	292	352	644	155	293	37	11	282	74	-19	-0	-6	+2	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	6140	5361	1022	190	28	199	646	2389	87	75	36	191	288	348	636	157	294	39	11	286	77	-157	+1	-43	+22	+174	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	108	20	3	21	68	253	9	8	4	190	287	347	634	157	293	39	10	286	77	-17	+0	-5	+2	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	64	57	15	5	0	4	6	23	1	3	0	263	344	561	905	298	367	36	9	392	158	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	450	362	84	30	3	13	73	171	13	6	1	232	379	439	819	207	394	38	16	367	139	+20	+1	—	—	+13	3.4
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	501	419	94	24	4	21	75	133	6	2	2	224	350	451	801	227	274	27	15	356	131	+17	-0	—	—	+14	3.2
2025	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	80	64	18	3	1	3	14	18	1	6	0	281	418	500	918	219	341	22	18	402	166	+6	+1	—	—	+2	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	8	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
	/162	664	33	3	235	309	447	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,313	76	26	200	293	359	+8	-16	2.4	2.5
	/162	664	22	8	200	293	359	+2.4	-4.6	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Charlie Pagliarini (OGILVIE)	25	20→30	50→55	45	58	212/313/393	181	321	23	9	38%	11%	96	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Yerzy 2023 · AA	25	33	49→50	49→40	43	183/264/328	145	254	18	5	35%	9%	63	-0.8	197/268/326	129	278	16	7	33%	8%	64	-0.8	164/234/276	112	269	17	3	44%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Neil Medchill 2012 · A	25	38→29	49→50	45	40	193/263/337	144	302	18	7	40%	8%	65	-0.7	203/255/330	127	335	15	7	41%	6%	59	-1.1	191/236/309	118	319	14	5	43%	5%	43	-1.0
✕Jared Walker 2021 · AA	25	38→31	50→55	47→45	36	187/269/335	148	317	18	7	44%	7%	68	-0.5	188/268/307	119	409	13	11	52%	8%	60	-1.0	96/203/194	98	252	14	12	61%	10%	3	-1.3
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→40	51→55	46→45	46	191/276/352	161	267	19	7	34%	10%	75	-0.0	196/264/341	145	281	18	6	35%	7%	66	-0.6	174/240/314	140	235	21	2	35%	6%	46	-1.3
✕Tyler Dearden 2023 · AA	25	43→32	51→50	40→30	43	218/294/371	153	317	20	3	36%	8%	87	+0.8	223/284/330	107	326	11	4	33%	7%	72	-0.2	223/280/312	90	321	8	2	31%	6%	61	-0.3
✕Evan Edwards 2022 · A	25	40	51→55	49→50	43	197/284/350	153	316	21	7	41%	10%	78	+0.2	212/295/376	164	338	21	12	40%	9%	89	+0.9	193/276/344	151	301	20	14	40%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	36→40	50→55	48→50	45	190/268/346	156	268	17	12	35%	9%	69	-0.4	213/285/388	175	304	20	12	35%	9%	87	+0.8	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	36→30	49→60	49→40	48	187/277/335	148	272	17	5	36%	11%	71	-0.3	188/268/347	159	301	20	4	41%	9%	70	-0.3	179/261/368	189	250	28	4	40%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2018 · A	24	36→37	49→55	43→30	42	191/274/336	146	272	18	3	35%	8%	70	-0.3	203/272/335	132	292	15	3	34%	7%	68	-0.5	180/245/285	105	260	12	0	34%	6%	40	-0.8
●Ryan Schimpf 2013 · AA	25	38→41	52→65	48→45	44	202/276/371	169	268	19	7	31%	8%	79	+0.3	192/268/370	178	250	22	4	32%	8%	76	+0.1	203/283/425	222	241	28	2	29%	8%	94	+1.0
✕Gabe Matthews 2023 · AAA	25	37→45	51→55	47→40	41	194/276/354	160	285	19	5	37%	8%	76	+0.0	217/308/359	142	317	16	5	34%	9%	90	+1.0	215/322/348	133	314	15	2	33%	11%	90	+0.8
✕Cole Cummings 2023 · A	25	39→37	47→45	50→45	45	198/290/333	136	290	16	7	35%	9%	76	+0.1	195/269/328	133	301	16	7	38%	8%	66	-0.6	182/254/312	130	284	16	6	40%	7%	52	-1.2
✕Zack Collins 2019 · AA	24	37→43	48→50	47→40	50	183/287/322	139	289	15	4	39%	12%	72	-0.2	201/296/347	146	302	16	4	35%	11%	82	+0.5	184/283/338	154	262	17	2	34%	11%	73	-0.1
✕John Whittleman 2012 · AA	25	34→43	49→50	43→45	47	186/261/332	146	246	17	3	32%	9%	63	-0.8	198/288/354	156	295	17	5	36%	11%	80	+0.4	170/286/335	165	260	18	1	38%	14%	73	-0.1
✕Collin Ferguson 2017 · A	24	37→27	49→55	47→45	40	196/264/342	146	278	18	8	35%	7%	67	-0.5	213/272/336	123	310	12	9	33%	7%	68	-0.5	231/283/354	122	325	10	9	30%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Justin Nelson 2007 · A	24	39→41	51→55	44→45	42	205/273/373	168	284	18	7	34%	8%	79	+0.3	220/291/401	181	316	22	5	35%	8%	93	+1.3	221/298/419	198	312	25	2	36%	9%	99	+1.0
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→27	50→55	41→40	38	171/254/317	146	284	19	4	44%	8%	57	-1.2	206/289/426	220	321	31	5	43%	9%	100	+1.7	188/284/475	288	255	45	2	45%	10%	106	+1.5
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	38→32	52→55	45→50	45	197/293/364	167	297	20	9	38%	10%	85	+0.7	185/270/345	160	284	19	12	39%	9%	71	-0.3	169/254/325	157	260	19	13	41%	8%	56	-0.9
✕Mitch Walding 2018 · AA	25	39→45	47→50	43→40	40	194/263/327	133	305	15	4	39%	8%	63	-0.9	199/295/355	156	336	19	4	42%	11%	83	+0.6	182/287/342	160	324	21	3	45%	12%	75	-0.0
✕Tyler Horan 2016 · A	25	39→43	52→55	45	42	208/268/374	166	272	20	8	32%	7%	76	+0.1	214/265/356	142	303	16	7	33%	6%	70	-0.3	228/270/390	162	313	20	6	33%	5%	78	+0.1