Charlie Pagliarini

3B Arkansas Travelers
Age 26 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2134MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AModesto Nuts450.232/.379/.43913653—.148/.266/.275
202524A+/INTL2 orgs581.232/.359/.45824871—.158/.256/.310
202625AASEA588.264/.376/.49827987—.211/.297/.388
2027PROJMLE26MLBSEA3.193/.282/.3520081-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB27MLBSEA45.194/.283/.3521081-0.0
2029PROJ40% MLB28MLBSEA83.195/.282/.3493181-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wRC+88
ISO85
wOBA84
BB%80
Chase%74
Speed40
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%
CompsChandler Redmond (age 26) · Chase Strumpf (age 26) · Chris Williams (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†81
AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .282 / .352
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%10
BABIP277
ISO168
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202322 ROKACL Mariners — 6457 15504 6231 30 263344561905 298367 369 392 40 — — — — — —
202423 AModesto Nuts — 450362 8430313 7317113 61 232379439819 207394 3816 367 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+Everett AquaSox — 501419 9424421 751336 22 224350451801 227274 2715 356 57 — — — — — —
202524 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 8064 18313 14181 60 281418500918 219341 2218 402 158 — — — — — —
202625 AAArkansas Travelers — 588496 13129327 811758 95 264376498874 234350 3014 384 87 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202322 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 6459 9302 4331 30 153219305524 153270 526 228 40 — — — — — —
202423 A MLEModesto Nuts — 450386 571829 4923413 61 148266275540 127324 5211 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 501442 7018215 521876 22 158256310566 152230 3710 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 588521 11023321 562138 95 211297388685 177304 3610 297 87 — — — — — —
202322 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 6459 9302 4331 30 153219305524 153292 526 228 40 — — — — — —
202322 ROK RAWACL Mariners — 6457 15504 6231 30 263344561905 298367 369 392 40 — — — — — —
202423 A MLEModesto Nuts — 450386 571829 4923413 61 148266275540 127331 5211 246 53 — — — — — —
202423 A RAWModesto Nuts — 450362 8430313 7317113 61 232379439819 207394 3816 367 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+ MLE2 teams — 581512 8221317 602177 82 160257312570 152232 3710 253 57 — — — — — —
202524 A+ RAW2 teams — 581483 11227524 891517 82 232359458817 226284 2615 362 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 588521 11023321 562138 95 211297388685 177307 3610 297 87 — — — — — —
202625 AA RAWArkansas Travelers — 588496 13129327 811758 95 264376498874 234350 3014 384 87 — — — — — —
202322 ROK MLEACL Mariners — 6459 9302 4331 30 153219305524 153270 526 228 40 — — — — — —
202423 A MLEModesto Nuts — 450385 571829 4923413 61 148266275541 127324 5211 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+ MLE2 teams — 581509 8221317 602177 82 161257314572 153230 3710 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 588519 11023321 562138 95 212297389687 177304 3610 297 87 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 A MLEModesto Nuts — 450385 571829 4923413 61 148266275541 127324 5211 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 A+ MLE2 teams — 581509 8221317 602177 82 161257314572 153230 3710 253 57 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 588519 11023321 562138 95 212297389687 177304 3610 297 87 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLESEA 2% 380336 6514212 371374 42 195284358642 163280 3610 288 81 -9 +0 -2 +1 +8 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXSEA 2% 33 0000 010 00 193282352634 159277 330 285 81 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLESEA 27% 167147 29615 16592 21 196285358642 161280 3510 288 81 -4 +0 -1 +1 +4 -0.0
202928 MLB MLESEA 40% 209185 37817 20732 21 197284355640 158279 3510 287 81 -5 +0 -2 +1 +5 -0.1
202827 MLB CTXSEA 27% 4540 7201 4161 00 194283352634 158277 369 285 81 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
202928 MLB CTXSEA 40% 8374 14303 8291 10 195282349632 155277 3510 284 81 -2 +0 -1 +0 +2 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 128114 21504 12452 10 184273333607 149262 359 285 69 -3 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 10625020 6122910 50 183272330602 147261 359 285 69 -15 +1 -4 +2 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 22141947 351851166 22088535 3211 180275337612 157283 4010 271 69 -12 +0 -3 +2 +12 -0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 10225319 6526010 93 178274332606 154280 4010 271 69 -15 +0 -4 +2 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 588 PAwOBA .376 → .297 (−79)K% 29.8% → 36.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.76%÷1.000×1.220——36.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.78%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9889.53%
HBP% /PA1.36%—×0.870—×0.9881.17%
Singles /BIP22.43%÷1.000×0.920×0.996×0.98820.31%
Doubles /BIP9.03%÷1.000×0.840×0.996×0.9887.47%
Triples /BIP0.93%÷1.000×0.940×0.996×0.9880.86%
Home runs /BIP8.41%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9886.65%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .376 → .297; ISO .234 → .183; BABIP .350 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 501 PAwOBA .347 → .253 (−94)K% 26.5% → 37.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.55%÷0.957×1.350——37.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.77%÷0.999×0.710—×0.97810.26%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.810—×0.9780.95%
Singles /BIP15.73%÷1.001×0.910×0.986×0.97813.79%
Doubles /BIP8.39%÷0.955×0.830×0.986×0.9787.04%
Triples /BIP1.40%÷1.150×0.820×0.986×0.9780.96%
Home runs /BIP7.34%÷1.036×0.830—×0.9785.75%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .347 → .253; ISO .227 → .161; BABIP .274 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 450 PAwOBA .360 → .246 (−114)K% 38.0% → 52.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.00%÷0.993×1.360——52.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.22%÷1.010×0.690—×0.98010.86%
HBP% /PA2.89%—×0.780—×0.9802.21%
Singles /BIP19.90%÷0.970×0.920×0.978×0.98018.08%
Doubles /BIP15.71%÷1.076×0.830×0.978×0.98011.62%
Triples /BIP1.57%÷1.150×0.910×0.978×0.9801.19%
Home runs /BIP6.81%÷0.897×0.800—×0.9805.95%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .360 → .246; ISO .207 → .138; BABIP .394 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Mariners · 64 PAwOBA .381 → .228 (−153)K% 35.9% → 52.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.94%÷0.992×1.440——52.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.38%÷0.989×0.620—×0.9655.67%
HBP% /PA1.56%—×0.720—×0.9651.09%
Singles /BIP17.65%÷0.987×0.820—×0.96514.14%
Doubles /BIP14.71%÷0.993×0.720—×0.96510.29%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP11.76%÷0.945×0.780—×0.9659.37%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .381 → .228; ISO .298 → .177; BABIP .367 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .