Charlie Pagliarini3B Arkansas Travelers
Age 25 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
2026 ROS PROJECTION363 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†85
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .296 / .362
PA242
HR8
K%39
BB%11
BABIP306
ISO167
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -2.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: -0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -1.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +17.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+17REPTotal WAR: +1.50+1.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.70.80.80.3+$18M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER55
scouting grade only
EYE58
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
DEFENSE40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $6M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202322 ROKACL Mariners 6459 10303 4341 30 169234373607 203318 536 239 41
202322 ROKACL Mariners 6457 15504 6231 30 263344561905 298367 369 392 158
202423 AModesto Nuts 450384 5917112 5123213 61 154275297571 143331 5211 261 58
202423 AModesto Nuts 450362 8430313 7317113 61 232379439819 207394 3816 367 139
202524 A+2 teams 581518 7620216 542367 82 147237286522 139224 419 234 37
202524 A+2 teams 581483 11227524 891517 82 232359458817 226284 2615 362 136
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD25 AASEA 363314 709315 411356 64 223324414738 191331 3711 320 103 +1 -0 +0 +1 +10 1.3
YTD25 AASEA 363295 8011317 601056 64 271404502906 231360 2917 399 164 +26 -0 +0 +1 +10 3.8
ROS25 AASEA 2% 242210 41728 26954 32 195296362658 167299 3911 296 85 -4 -0 -1 +1 +7 0.2
ROS25 MLBSEA 2% 54 0000 120 00 200200 296 4020 282 74 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL25 AASEA 368318 709315 421376 64 220322409731 189327 3711 319 103 +1 -0 -0 +1 +10 1.3
TOT25 AASEA 605524 11116523 6723010 96 212313393706 181321 3811 311 96 -3 -1 -1 +2 +17 1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726 MLBSEA 31% 581506 10017320 622238 74 198295362657 164304 3811 300 87 -8 -0 -3 +2 +16 0.7
202827 MLBSEA 42% 609531 10819321 652278 74 203300369669 166302 3711 301 89 -8 -0 -3 +2 +17 0.8
202928 MLBSEA 48% 627547 11320322 672308 84 207302375677 168301 3711 301 89 -8 +0 -4 +2 +18 0.8
203029 MLBSEA 49% 400349 7112214 431465 53 203300370669 166299 3611 300 88 -6 -0 -4 +1 +11 0.3
202726 MLBSEA 31% 180157 31516 19692 21 197292357649 159301 3811 286 77 -5 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.0
202827 MLBSEA 42% 256224 45819 27963 32 201295366661 165299 3811 288 79 -6 -0 -1 +1 +7 0.0
202928 MLBSEA 48% 300261 539210 321104 42 203300368667 165298 3711 288 79 -7 +0 -2 +1 +8 0.0
203029 MLBSEA 49% 197171 34616 21723 21 199297351648 152296 3711 287 78 -5 +0 -2 +1 +6 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career 938817 16328531 10034912 116 200296360656 160299 3711 288 78 -23 -0 -6 +3 +27 0.1
/ 162G 650566 11219321 692428 84 198293353647 155297 3711 288 78 -16 +0 -4 +2 +18 0.1
Career 35543104 57811516116 372142354 4720 186284346630 159292 4010 283 75 -100 +1 -16 +13 +101 -0.1
/ 162G 650568 10621321 6826010 94 187285345630 158293 4010 283 75 -18 +0 -3 +2 +18 -0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202322 ROKACL Mariners 6457 15504 6231 30 263344561905 298367 369 392 158 +4 +1 +2 0.7
202423 AModesto Nuts 450362 8430313 7317113 61 232379439819 207394 3816 367 139 +20 +1 +13 3.4
202524 A+Everett AquaSox 501419 9424421 751336 22 224350451801 227274 2715 356 131 +17 -0 +14 3.2
202524 INTLPeoria Javelinas 8064 18313 14181 60 281418500918 219341 2218 402 166 +6 +1 +2 1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18
career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA
103,52711310226311395+13+110.511.2
/162664212+2.4+0.12.0pk7: 12
#2Trevor Plouffelast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA
73,17810312243306411+14-188.48.4
/162664223+2.8-3.81.8pk7: 8
#3Ian Stewartlast yr '14
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA
61,6466017230317416+6+26.26.2
/162664247+2.4+0.92.5pk7: 6
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA
82,7118155233305399-12-134.14.5
/1626642013-2.9-3.21.0pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
29403211204297371+3-81.61.6
/162664238+2.4-5.61.2pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Charlie Pagliarini (OGILVIE) 25 20→30 50→55 45 58 212/313/393 181321 239 38% 11% 96 +1.5
Andy Yerzy
2023 · AA
25 33 49→50 49→40 43 183/264/328 145254 185 35% 9% 63 -0.8 197/268/326 129278 167 33% 8% 64 -0.8 164/234/27611226917344%8%33-1.0
Neil Medchill
2012 · A
25 38→29 49→50 45 40 193/263/337 144302 187 40% 8% 65 -0.7 203/255/330 127335 157 41% 6% 59 -1.1 191/236/30911831914543%5%43-1.0
Jared Walker
2021 · AA
25 38→31 50→55 47→45 36 187/269/335 148317 187 44% 7% 68 -0.5 188/268/307 119409 1311 52% 8% 60 -1.0 96/203/19498252141261%10%3-1.3
Jabari Henry
2016 · AA
25 36→40 51→55 46→45 46 191/276/352 161267 197 34% 10% 75 -0.0 196/264/341 145281 186 35% 7% 66 -0.6 174/240/31414023521235%6%46-1.3
Tyler Dearden
2023 · AA
25 43→32 51→50 40→30 43 218/294/371 153317 203 36% 8% 87 +0.8 223/284/330 107326 114 33% 7% 72 -0.2 223/280/312903218231%6%61-0.3
Evan Edwards
2022 · A
25 40 51→55 49→50 43 197/284/350 153316 217 41% 10% 78 +0.2 212/295/376 164338 2112 40% 9% 89 +0.9 193/276/344151301201440%9%71-0.1
Drew Robinson
2016 · AAA
24 36→40 50→55 48→50 45 190/268/346 156268 1712 35% 9% 69 -0.4 213/285/388 175304 2012 35% 9% 87 +0.8 213/286/393179309201236%9%85+0.5
Chris Williams
2021 · A
24 36→30 49→60 49→40 48 187/277/335 148272 175 36% 11% 71 -0.3 188/268/347 159301 204 41% 9% 70 -0.3 179/261/36818925028440%9%71-0.2
Joe DeCarlo
2018 · A
24 36→37 49→55 43→30 42 191/274/336 146272 183 35% 8% 70 -0.3 203/272/335 132292 153 34% 7% 68 -0.5 180/245/28510526012034%6%40-0.8
Ryan Schimpf
2013 · AA
25 38→41 52→65 48→45 44 202/276/371 169268 197 31% 8% 79 +0.3 192/268/370 178250 224 32% 8% 76 +0.1 203/283/42522224128229%8%94+1.0
Gabe Matthews
2023 · AAA
25 37→45 51→55 47→40 41 194/276/354 160285 195 37% 8% 76 +0.0 217/308/359 142317 165 34% 9% 90 +1.0 215/322/34813331415233%11%90+0.8
Cole Cummings
2023 · A
25 39→37 47→45 50→45 45 198/290/333 136290 167 35% 9% 76 +0.1 195/269/328 133301 167 38% 8% 66 -0.6 182/254/31213028416640%7%52-1.2
Zack Collins
2019 · AA
24 37→43 48→50 47→40 50 183/287/322 139289 154 39% 12% 72 -0.2 201/296/347 146302 164 35% 11% 82 +0.5 184/283/33815426217234%11%73-0.1
John Whittleman
2012 · AA
25 34→43 49→50 43→45 47 186/261/332 146246 173 32% 9% 63 -0.8 198/288/354 156295 175 36% 11% 80 +0.4 170/286/33516526018138%14%73-0.1
Collin Ferguson
2017 · A
24 37→27 49→55 47→45 40 196/264/342 146278 188 35% 7% 67 -0.5 213/272/336 123310 129 33% 7% 68 -0.5 231/283/35412232510930%6%76+0.0
Justin Nelson
2007 · A
24 39→41 51→55 44→45 42 205/273/373 168284 187 34% 8% 79 +0.3 220/291/401 181316 225 35% 8% 93 +1.3 221/298/41919831225236%9%99+1.0
Landon Stephens
2023 · AA
25 32→27 50→55 41→40 38 171/254/317 146284 194 44% 8% 57 -1.2 206/289/426 220321 315 43% 9% 100 +1.7 188/284/47528825545245%10%106+1.5
Peyton Burdick
2022 · AAA
25 38→32 52→55 45→50 45 197/293/364 167297 209 38% 10% 85 +0.7 185/270/345 160284 1912 39% 9% 71 -0.3 169/254/325157260191341%8%56-0.9
Mitch Walding
2018 · AA
25 39→45 47→50 43→40 40 194/263/327 133305 154 39% 8% 63 -0.9 199/295/355 156336 194 42% 11% 83 +0.6 182/287/34216032421345%12%75-0.0
Tyler Horan
2016 · A
25 39→43 52→55 45 42 208/268/374 166272 208 32% 7% 76 +0.1 214/265/356 142303 167 33% 6% 70 -0.3 228/270/39016231320633%5%78+0.1