Colton BeckerSS Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION250 act + 166 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .298 / .298
PA166
HR1
SB10
K%25
BB%9
BABIP293
ISO81
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -12.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-12BATRUN: +3.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+4RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +4.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +11.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+12REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.00.50.70.70.60.40.10.0+$21M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$2M+$2M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.6$2M+$1M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2032Arb-1$0.4M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M
2033Arb-2$0.4M
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $5M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202423 AColumbia Fireflies 5752 9200 4150 63 173232212444 38243 267 195 7
202423 AColumbia Fireflies 5750 11200 6100 63 220304260564 40275 1811 261 58
202524 A3 teams 368320 661111 31834 6010 206285256541 50272 238 239 41
202524 A3 teams 368302 761111 49594 6010 252363305668 53306 1613 304 91
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD25 AAKC 250213 511132 22645 184 239325347672 108331 269 287 78 -6 +2 +0 +3 +7 0.6
YTD25 AAKC 250203 551332 32505 184 271383394777 123349 2013 341 119 +5 +2 +0 +3 +7 1.7
ROS25 AAKC 2% 166147 32711 15422 102 217298298596 81293 259 274 68 -6 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.2
ROS25 MLBKC 2% 33 0000 010 00 290 330 261 58 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL25 AAKC 253216 511132 22655 184 236321343664 106327 269 287 78 -6 +2 +0 +3 +7 0.6
TOT25 AAKC 416360 831843 371067 286 230314327641 97315 259 282 74 -12 +3 +0 +4 +12 0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726 MLBKC 31% 364324 731534 32905 184 225305327632 102292 259 281 73 -11 +2 +0 +4 +10 0.5
202827 MLBKC 42% 388346 771634 34965 204 223301321622 98292 259 285 76 -11 +2 +0 +4 +11 0.7
202928 MLBKC 48% 400356 801635 36995 194 225305329633 104292 259 286 77 -10 +2 -1 +4 +11 0.7
203029 MLBKC 49% 400356 791635 36995 184 222302326628 104291 259 285 76 -11 +2 -1 +4 +11 0.6
203130 MLBKC 50% 398354 781625 361005 163 220301319620 99290 259 282 74 -12 +2 -2 +4 +11 0.4
203231 MLBKC 51% 386343 741524 35985 133 216298306604 90288 259 278 71 -13 +1 -3 +4 +11 0.1
203332 MLBKC 51% 370330 701424 33954 112 212292303595 91285 269 273 67 -14 +1 -4 +4 +10 -0.1
202726 MLBKC 31% 113101 23511 10281 61 228304327630 99289 259 269 64 -5 +1 +0 +1 +3 0.1
202827 MLBKC 42% 163146 33712 14402 82 226302329631 103289 259 272 66 -6 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.1
202928 MLBKC 48% 191170 37812 17472 92 218296312608 94288 259 273 67 -7 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.1
203029 MLBKC 49% 197175 38812 18492 92 217297309606 91288 259 273 67 -7 +1 -1 +2 +6 0.1
203130 MLBKC 50% 200178 38812 18502 82 213293303596 90287 259 270 65 -8 +1 -1 +2 +6 -0.0
203231 MLBKC 51% 196174 38812 18502 71 218299310609 92285 269 266 62 -8 +1 -1 +2 +6 -0.1
203332 MLBKC 51% 189168 35712 17492 51 208289298586 89282 269 262 58 -9 +1 -2 +2 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career 12521115 24251713 11231413 5211 217296310606 93288 259 269 64 -51 +6 -5 +13 +35 -0.1
/ 162G 650579 1262647 581637 276 218297313610 95288 259 269 64 -26 +3 -3 +7 +18 -0.1
Career 32972928 6381282033 29281740 19139 218297309606 91289 259 275 69 -117 +23 -10 +35 +93 2.4
/ 162G 650577 1262547 581618 388 218299312611 94288 259 275 69 -23 +4 -2 +7 +18 0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202423 AColumbia Fireflies 5750 11200 6100 63 220304260564 40275 1811 261 58 -3 +0 +2 -0.1
202524 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 8470 27410 11121 153 386476471947 86450 1413 417 178 +7 +2 +2 1.2
202524 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 4637 4100 7100 72 108250135385 27148 2215 193 6 -5 +1 +1 -0.3
202524 AColumbia Fireflies 238195 45601 31373 385 231345277622 46278 1613 286 77 -6 +6 +7 0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17
career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA
103,1083684243310341+28+299.29.5
/162664818+5.9+6.22.0pk7: 10
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA
62,4383130244299357+9+265.45.4
/16266488+2.4+7.21.5pk7: 5
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA
62,05912136247316328+22-15.15.1
/162664444+7.1-0.51.6pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA
71,8831280248302332+8+32.72.7
/162664428+2.8+0.91.0pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA
51,539386251310309+5+122.72.7
/162664137+2.4+5.11.2pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons
31,2561452221298318+13+91.51.5
/162664728+7.1+4.80.8pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Colton Becker (OGILVIE) 25 40 20 60 50 230/314/327 97315 328 25% 9% 74 +0.7
Wes Rogers
2019 · AA
25 43→48 38→40 58→65 41 207/257/286 79287 532 29% 6% 47 -1.9 194/251/270 76305 517 35% 7% 41 -2.3 158/224/2165827231240%7%14-2.0
J.D. Orr
2022 · AA
25 50 36→30 54→65 47 234/294/308 74312 324 25% 8% 69 -0.4 213/294/276 63301 337 27% 9% 62 -0.9 196/290/2404428315128%10%49-0.8
Daniel Hinojosa
2009 · AAA
25 43 38→40 58→55 39 206/263/277 72302 626 32% 6% 48 -1.9 234/276/322 88309 520 25% 5% 64 -0.8 248/287/3328432042023%4%68-0.2
Jay Gonzalez
2017 · AA
25 48→50 34→30 57→60 47 217/286/275 58321 128 30% 9% 57 -1.2 233/294/298 65348 224 30% 8% 66 -0.6 246/307/3055837102731%8%71-0.1
Daniel Figueroa
2009 · A
26 48→53 35→30 55 48 219/302/274 54314 224 28% 9% 65 -0.7 231/318/297 66312 317 24% 9% 78 +0.2 242/336/3026032021522%9%83+0.3
Roberto Caro
2019 · AA
25 49→38 38→40 59→60 45 225/295/313 88329 426 30% 8% 71 -0.3 206/273/284 78299 425 30% 8% 54 -1.4 179/249/2375826423130%8%31-2.3
Max Schuemann
2022 · AAA
25 44→47 40→45 59→60 44 212/288/308 96283 832 26% 7% 68 -0.5 223/314/344 121303 1225 28% 9% 89 +0.9 220/317/335116299122228%10%86+0.6
Josh Prince
2013 · AA
25 45→49 38→40 53→60 45 214/273/298 84282 529 25% 7% 57 -1.2 207/278/298 91277 828 26% 8% 60 -1.0 220/298/3038329782826%10%67-0.3
Drew Swift
2023 · A
24 46→43 36→30 58→55 45 208/288/275 66319 426 33% 9% 59 -1.1 206/269/267 61318 216 33% 7% 48 -1.9 207/275/2564931811832%8%44-1.3
Elih Marrero
2023 · AA
26 43 37→40 53→55 45 203/274/275 72293 523 30% 8% 53 -1.5 212/276/311 99306 921 31% 8% 63 -0.9 212/279/325113292122630%8%64-0.2
Kenny Wilson
2015 · AAA
25 46→51 38→40 56→60 38 215/268/293 79305 427 30% 5% 54 -1.4 224/281/313 89311 626 28% 6% 65 -0.7 195/262/2899430282235%6%49-0.7
Adam Godwin
2009 · AA
26 51→53 36→30 56→55 47 241/293/305 64295 325 19% 6% 67 -0.5 230/278/308 78297 419 23% 6% 62 -0.9 229/265/2956630122124%4%50-0.8
Rafael Bautista
2018 · MLB
25 50→53 35→30 56→60 43 233/276/287 55284 228 19% 5% 55 -1.4 222/269/294 72284 519 22% 5% 54 -1.4 223/262/3037928681224%3%49-0.6
Drew Maggi
2014 · AA
25 46→54 36→45 52→60 44 216/277/285 69287 320 24% 6% 56 -1.3 235/295/302 67300 427 21% 6% 68 -0.5 248/308/3308233251825%6%77+0.1
Jeremy Arocho
2023 · A
24 48→46 35→30 57→60 58 218/326/275 57303 226 25% 13% 76 +0.0 214/314/273 59286 230 23% 12% 70 -0.3 210/313/2584827723722%13%64-0.5
Patrick Biondi
2016 · A
25 48→44 38→30 55→60 44 228/276/303 76292 523 23% 6% 59 -1.1 228/288/288 60312 327 26% 7% 61 -1.0 224/290/2644131413326%8%53-0.8
Tyler Holt
2014 · AA
25 46→56 36→40 56→55 45 217/271/287 70283 220 23% 7% 53 -1.5 244/307/310 66316 224 21% 8% 75 -0.0 254/325/3125832912721%9%79+0.2
Jacob Young
2023 · A
24 49→58 36→40 62→60 46 227/293/293 66298 328 23% 7% 65 -0.7 248/307/329 81310 432 20% 6% 79 +0.3 251/311/3297731043519%6%79+0.2
Wilfredo Tovar
2017 · AAA
25 51→56 36→40 54→60 46 237/276/300 63271 328 14% 5% 58 -1.2 234/273/315 81277 619 17% 5% 61 -1.0 248/292/3328528661115%6%71-0.2
Wayne Lydon
2006 · AA
25 48→51 38→40 61→55 43 225/271/313 88292 329 24% 6% 59 -1.1 235/283/326 91302 626 23% 6% 69 -0.4 236/288/3188229952922%6%65-0.7