Joe Ariola — OGILVIE

Joe Ariola P Hillsboro Hops

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%25.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	20	2	34	135	61	14	2	10%	1.7	34.6%	13.0%	21.5%	2.2%	1.60	3.01	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	20	2	34	135	61	14	2	10%	1.7	34.6%	13.0%	21.5%	2.2%	1.60	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	ARI	3	2	3	13	7	1	0	67%	1.1	53.8%	7.7%	46.2%	0.0%	2.70	-0.47	—
2026	22	A RAW	ARI	6	0	12	46	23	6	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	13.0%	37.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.53	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	ARI	10	0	16	70	30	7	2	0%	1.6	42.9%	10.0%	32.9%	2.9%	2.76	2.32	—
2026	22	AA RAW	ARI	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	33	0	34	144	37	14	4	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.14	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	16	0	17	72	18	7	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.14	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	18	7	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	3.76	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	83	24	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		20	2	34	135	47	18	3	10%	1.7	34.6%	13.0%	21.5%	2.2%	1.60	3.01	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	12	200	802	277	105	17	10%	1.7	34.6%	13.0%	21.5%	2.2%	1.60	3.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ariola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	25.2%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.14	25.8%	16.2%	34	-0.16	—	—	—
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	83
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	83
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.72	16.6%	7.5%	223	+0.24	3.71	420	81
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	81
Ronnie Glenn L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.00	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.53	3.47	212	81
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	80
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	80
Bryan Magdaleno L 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	23.9%	8.8%	2.2%	.375	3.84	25.0%	4.6%	122	+0.44	3.40	191	79
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	79
Marlon Perez L 2022 · 3.30 FIP	22	SU	3.30	20.5%	9.0%	1.4%	.250	4.15	22.9%	12.2%	103	+0.85	3.30	145	79
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	79
Dominic LoBrutto L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	21.4%	6.9%	1.9%	.333	3.44	17.8%	10.6%	84	+0.22	2.99	135	79
Quintin Torres-Costa L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	25.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.340	2.51	24.8%	12.9%	55	-1.45	2.51	248	79
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	78
Jeff Singer L 2016 · 3.21 FIP	22	SU	3.21	21.3%	10.8%	1.0%	.263	3.63	22.6%	10.4%	174	+0.42	2.92	292	78
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	4.01	232	78
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	78
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	78
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	25.6%	9.8%	1.15	4.24
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64