Garvin Alston
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 175 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%8.3%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.00 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 27 | 0 | 44 | 208 | 42 | 27 | 4 | 14.4% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 6.60 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 33 | 0 | 47 | 187 | 43 | 18 | 3 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 2.51 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 44 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 13.9% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 61 | 32 | 4 | 19.0% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 4.18 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 11 | 59 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 10.4% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 25 | — | 25 | 104 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 1 | 238 | 1060 | 173 | 130 | 22 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 1 | 200 | 890 | 145 | 109 | 18 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garvin Alston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.69 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 25 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 87 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 84 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 81 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 81 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 81 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 79 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 79 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 79 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 78 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.0% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 160 | 78 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 75 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 75 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 75 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.