Garvin Alston — OGILVIE

Garvin Alston P Rochester Red Wings

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%16.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	0	18	76	22	4	2	0%	1.4	19.7%	6.6%	13.1%	3.7%	3.00	4.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	0	18	76	22	4	2	0%	1.4	28.9%	5.3%	23.7%	2.6%	3.00	2.77	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	44	208	42	27	4	0%	1.6	14.4%	15.5%	-1.1%	2.7%	6.60	5.35	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	44	208	42	27	4	0%	1.6	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	1.9%	6.60	4.22	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	187	43	18	3	0%	1.4	18.5%	11.4%	7.2%	2.1%	2.51	4.11	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	187	43	18	3	0%	1.4	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	1.6%	2.51	3.25	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	44	1	59	263	45	25	5	2%	1.3	13.9%	10.5%	3.4%	2.0%	4.91	4.38	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	44	1	59	263	45	25	5	2%	1.3	13.9%	10.5%	3.4%	2.0%	4.91	4.38	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	44	1	59	263	45	25	5	2%	1.3	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	1.9%	4.91	3.95	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	18.6%	12.4%	6.3%	1.7%	4.18	4.03	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	18.6%	12.4%	6.3%	1.7%	4.18	4.03	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	267	61	32	4	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	1.5%	4.18	3.53	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	9.8%	13.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	7.36	4.01	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	9.8%	13.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	7.36	4.01	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	7	0	11	59	7	9	0	0%	1.6	11.9%	15.3%	-3.4%	0.0%	7.36	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	WSH	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	2.6%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	14	10	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.8%	5.04	5.11	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.8%	5.04	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	4	1	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.8%	5.04	4.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	109	27	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	2.8%	5.04	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		168	1	238	1060	172	127	22	1%	1.4	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	2.1%	4.53	4.41	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	1	200	890	144	107	19	1%	1.4	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	2.1%	4.53	4.41	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garvin Alston (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	16.4%	11.8%	2.6%	—	5.11	16.8%	4.9%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	86
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	84
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	78
Caleb Thielbar L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	11.8%	10.8%	1.2%	.253	2.68	19.0%	16.6%	57	-1.47	2.22	505	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	77
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	76
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	75
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	75
Jeremy Bleich L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	29	SU	4.35	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.333	3.64	19.1%	13.1%	146	-0.71	3.20	241	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
Ozzie Mendez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	10.3%	9.4%	1.0%	.321	7.57	11.3%	3.3%	38	+3.62	3.95	161	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	72
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	72
Patrick McCoy L 2016 · 4.28 FIP	27	SU	4.28	15.4%	13.8%	1.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	113	72
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	70
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	70
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	70
Matt Purke L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	28	SU	4.29	16.1%	16.0%	0.9%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	226	68
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	68
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	68