Garvin Alston
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 125
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%19.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 3.00 | 4.29 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 13 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.9% | 5.3% | 23.7% | 2.6% | 3.00 | 2.77 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 44 | 208 | 42 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.4% | 15.5% | -1.1% | 3.0% | 6.60 | 5.49 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 44 | 208 | 42 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 6.60 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 187 | 43 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 2.51 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 187 | 43 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 2.51 | 3.25 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 44 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 13.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 4.91 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 44 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 4.91 | 3.95 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 61 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 4.18 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 61 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 1.5% | 4.18 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 11 | 59 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 10.4% | 16.0% | -5.6% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 11 | 59 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 11.9% | 15.3% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 4.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.42 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 109 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 1 | 238 | 1060 | 173 | 130 | 22 | 1% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 4.42 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 1 | 200 | 890 | 145 | 109 | 18 | 1% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garvin Alston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.80 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 20 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 86 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 84 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 79 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 79 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 76 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 76 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.34 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .275 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.88 | 269 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .253 | 3.69 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.35 | 2.69 | 703 | 73 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 73 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 3.67 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.64 | 1.52 | 350 | 72 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 72 |