Chris Lopez — OGILVIE

Chris LopezC FCL Cardinals

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 175 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .245 / .264

PA41

HR0

K%35

BB%6

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	67	58	8	2	0	0	6	37	2	0	0	138	242	172	415	34	364	55	9	204	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	33	31	3	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	97	125	129	254	32	150	36	3	115	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	35	30	7	1	0	1	5	9	0	0	0	233	343	367	710	133	300	26	14	325	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	67	60	4	1	0	0	4	47	2	0	0	67	152	83	235	17	213	70	6	108	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	33	31	2	1	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	65	94	97	191	32	117	52	3	72	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	35	32	6	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	188	257	312	570	125	229	37	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	67	60	4	1	0	0	4	47	2	0	0	67	152	83	235	17	286	70	6	108	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	67	58	8	2	0	0	6	37	2	0	0	138	242	172	415	34	364	55	9	204	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	33	31	2	1	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	65	94	97	191	32	133	52	3	72	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	33	31	3	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	97	125	129	254	32	150	36	3	115	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	35	32	6	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	188	257	312	570	125	278	37	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	35	30	7	1	0	1	5	9	0	0	0	233	343	367	710	133	300	26	14	325	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	67	61	4	1	0	0	4	47	2	0	0	66	152	82	233	16	213	70	6	108	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	33	32	2	1	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	62	94	94	188	31	117	52	3	72	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	35	32	6	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	188	257	312	570	125	229	37	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	33	32	2	1	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	62	94	94	188	31	117	52	3	72	-65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	35	32	6	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	188	257	312	570	125	229	37	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	STL	0%	145	134	25	4	1	1	9	51	1	1	0	190	247	267	513	77	290	35	6	234	45	-10	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	34%	106	97	19	3	1	1	7	36	1	1	0	194	252	277	529	83	291	34	7	241	49	-6	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	34%	36	34	6	1	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	195	252	277	529	82	293	33	6	241	49	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	36	34	6	1	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	176	222	206	428	29	273	33	6	241	11	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	108	18	0	0	36	217	0	0	0	176	222	205	427	29	272	33	6	241	11	-39	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	282	258	37	7	1	2	18	127	3	1	0	143	208	202	409	58	265	45	6	184	11	-9	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	85	16	2	5	41	293	7	2	0	143	207	202	409	59	263	45	6	184	11	-40	+1	+0	+12	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chris Lopez (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	188/245/264	76	290	0	0	35%	6%	45	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→40	45→40	34	175/221/253	78	272	7	4	37%	5%	32	-3.6	185/240/265	80	303	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.8	138/183/216	78	244	10	0	46%	5%	8	-1.0
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	178/229/260	82	291	7	5	40%	5%	38	-3.2	191/228/268	77	268	5	3	30%	4%	38	-3.2	183/221/256	73	257	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	37→33	37→40	47→50	31	179/219/250	71	280	4	7	37%	3%	31	-3.7	213/252/298	85	304	6	10	30%	4%	54	-2.0	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	35→33	40→50	46→40	37	175/233/264	89	270	9	3	37%	6%	40	-3.0	181/243/302	121	279	12	4	37%	7%	53	-2.1	156/227/293	137	222	18	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	39→36	40	49→55	34	191/235/284	93	286	8	9	35%	4%	45	-2.7	178/229/269	91	272	8	12	36%	5%	40	-3.1	151/206/232	81	230	8	13	37%	5%	21	-2.3
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	32→37	41→50	48→30	34	165/219/258	92	266	9	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	196/234/319	123	268	14	3	32%	4%	53	-2.1	196/236/312	116	270	13	1	32%	4%	50	-1.4
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/242	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	32	-3.6	182/235/282	100	271	11	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	41→38	39→40	48→50	36	192/247/284	92	313	5	8	38%	6%	49	-2.4	192/263/290	98	321	8	8	39%	8%	58	-1.7	178/263/269	91	284	7	11	36%	9%	52	-1.6
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	37	38→40	46→45	39	180/237/267	86	270	4	6	33%	6%	42	-2.9	212/279/317	105	298	8	7	29%	8%	70	-0.9	218/298/344	126	289	12	7	27%	9%	81	-0.0
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	185/251/253	68	279	3	8	33%	7%	45	-2.7	179/238/249	70	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	187/256/313	125	256	16	1	32%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Jairo De La Rosa 2008 · A	22	37→33	39→40	43→45	31	184/217/268	84	284	7	8	37%	4%	34	-3.5	206/242/301	95	306	9	6	34%	4%	51	-2.2	207/238/296	89	297	10	3	33%	4%	45	-1.3
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	299	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	213/274/306	93	302	8	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Alberto Espinosa 2009 · A	22	37	37→40	45→40	38	183/226/251	68	257	4	4	30%	5%	34	-3.5	200/253/276	76	284	3	5	29%	6%	50	-2.3	195/251/270	75	274	2	2	28%	6%	45	-1.1
✕Sebastián Rivero 2021 · A	22	40	38→40	44→40	36	196/238/274	77	274	6	5	30%	4%	44	-2.8	200/253/297	97	279	8	5	30%	5%	55	-1.9	187/239/282	95	252	8	2	28%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Mateo Gil 2022 · A	22	41→33	41→45	44→45	34	202/240/301	99	299	9	8	35%	4%	51	-2.3	190/233/302	112	276	11	5	34%	5%	49	-2.4	170/213/284	114	239	12	3	34%	5%	35	-1.8
✕Maikol Escotto 2024 · A	22	35	41→45	47→50	35	179/230/275	96	276	10	12	38%	5%	42	-2.9	190/232/297	107	275	12	16	34%	4%	47	-2.5	179/219/283	104	251	14	22	34%	4%	37	-1.4
✕Luis Pineda 2024 · A	22	36	41→40	40	34	181/229/268	87	286	10	4	39%	5%	39	-3.1	199/246/292	93	336	9	5	41%	6%	51	-2.3	187/241/275	88	313	8	2	41%	6%	43	-1.5
✕Anthony Hermelyn 2017 · A	23	35	39→40	41→30	40	173/239/254	82	274	7	3	37%	8%	40	-3.0	197/259/281	84	282	7	4	30%	8%	53	-2.1	189/254/256	68	258	5	0	27%	8%	42	-1.4
✕Adonis Paula 2016 · A	22	40	37→40	46→40	40	191/251/262	71	279	4	5	31%	6%	46	-2.6	190/238/261	71	348	5	4	44%	5%	40	-3.0	171/218/228	58	321	5	2	46%	5%	24	-1.3