Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 43 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 56 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.61 | 5.05 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 43 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 56 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 2.61 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 18 | 0 | 26 | 125 | 36 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.4% | 22.6% | -0.2% | 3.2% | 6.92 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 86 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 116 | 505 | 122 | 74 | 15 | — | — | 24.1% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 5.37 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 88 | 46 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 89 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 0 | 100 | 423 | 98 | 50 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.31 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 100 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 74 | 327 | 69 | 57 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 5.35 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 187 | 152 | 30 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Hampu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.69 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 182 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 86 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 85 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 85 |
| Zach Jackson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.01 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .261 | 2.43 | 33.6% | 19.6% | 76 | -2.58 | 2.37 | 309 | 85 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 85 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 85 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 85 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 84 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.24 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 4.1% | .261 | 4.62 | 21.4% | 2.1% | 51 | -0.62 | 4.08 | 168 | 84 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 84 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 84 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 3.43 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.30 | 3.24 | 207 | 83 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.79 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | .301 | 4.05 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.74 | 3.85 | 132 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 83 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 83 |
| Jack Sinclair R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .258 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 161 | -0.76 | 2.82 | 285 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 91 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 1.17 | 4.80 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |