Kleiber Olmedo — OGILVIE

Kleiber Olmedo P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%17.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	14	59	9	6	1	0%	1.8	10.4%	12.7%	-2.3%	2.2%	3.14	5.04	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	14	59	9	6	1	0%	1.8	10.4%	12.7%	-2.3%	2.2%	3.14	5.04	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	14	59	9	6	1	0%	1.8	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	3.14	4.01	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	3	51	235	56	25	5	12%	2.1	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	3.3%	6.00	5.12	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	3	51	235	56	25	5	12%	2.1	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	3.3%	6.00	5.12	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	3	51	235	56	25	5	12%	2.1	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	2.1%	6.00	3.65	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	8	78	354	86	37	7	25%	2.4	18.0%	12.3%	5.6%	2.7%	6.49	4.65	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	8	78	354	86	37	7	25%	2.4	18.0%	12.3%	5.6%	2.7%	6.49	4.65	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	8	78	354	86	37	7	25%	2.4	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	2.0%	6.49	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	19	1	32	155	24	26	6	5%	1.7	11.9%	19.3%	-7.4%	4.8%	7.31	7.19	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	19	1	32	155	24	26	6	5%	1.7	11.9%	19.3%	-7.4%	4.8%	7.31	7.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	19	1	32	155	24	26	6	5%	1.7	15.5%	16.8%	-1.3%	3.9%	7.31	6.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	70	0	73	310	58	38	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	73	0	76	322	63	36	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.92	4.82	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	74	0	78	330	67	36	9	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.67	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	75	0	79	334	70	35	9	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	75	0	79	334	71	35	9	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.57	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	74	0	78	329	69	35	9	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.5%	10.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	72	0	76	319	67	34	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.69	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	72	305	63	33	10	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.82	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	287	58	32	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	28	19	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.2%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	53	0	56	236	47	27	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.92	4.82	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	62	0	65	274	56	30	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.67	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	67	0	70	296	62	31	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	69	0	72	304	64	32	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.57	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	69	0	72	304	64	32	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.5%	10.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	68	0	71	300	63	32	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.69	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	66	0	69	291	60	32	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.82	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	62	0	65	274	56	31	9	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		547	0	575	2427	499	263	72	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.36	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	91	25	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		83	12	175	803	127	112	26	14%	2.1	15.9%	13.9%	2.0%	3.3%	6.22	5.31	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	14	200	918	146	128	30	14%	2.1	15.9%	13.9%	2.0%	3.3%	6.22	5.31	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kleiber Olmedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	17.1%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.84	19.6%	8.2%	228	-0.54	—	—	—
Miguel Guerrero R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	21	SU	5.00	16.4%	12.9%	3.0%	.349	4.96	17.5%	5.4%	115	-0.04	4.56	171	90
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	88
Francisco Moreno R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	14.9%	11.5%	1.9%	.297	6.32	9.9%	-2.0%	84	+1.96	3.88	162	88
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	87
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	87
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	86
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	86
Mario Alcantara R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SU	4.83	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.64	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.19	4.36	171	85
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	85
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	85
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	85
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	85
Joel Cesar R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SU	4.30	16.3%	12.0%	1.9%	.267	5.21	18.0%	9.9%	38	+0.91	4.30	127	84
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	84
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	84
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	84
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	83
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	72	20.3%	11.1%	1.14	4.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81