Kleiber Olmedo — OGILVIE

Kleiber Olmedo P Fort Wayne TinCaps

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2030

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.8%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	8	0	14	59	9	6	1	10.4%	12.7%	2.1%	3.14	4.96	-0.0
2024	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	24	3	51	235	56	25	5	16.7%	13.0%	3.3%	6.00	5.15	-0.1
2025	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	32	8	78	354	86	37	7	18.0%	12.3%	2.7%	6.49	4.64	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	1	7	32	4	3	1	—	—	—	6.43	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	SD	12	12	63	267	57	28	8	21.3%	10.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2026 Total	21	MLB	SD	—	—	70	299	61	31	9	20.4%	10.4%	3.0%	4.81	4.17	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	SD	12	12	66	281	63	27	8	22.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.40	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	SD	13	13	69	291	68	26	8	23.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.33	4.24	+0.6
2029	24	MLB	SD	13	13	71	299	71	26	8	23.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
2030	25	MLB	SD	13	13	72	302	73	26	9	24.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.08	+0.8
2031	26	MLB	SD	13	13	72	302	74	26	9	24.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.09	4.06	+0.8
2032	27	MLB	SD	13	13	71	300	73	26	9	24.4%	8.6%	2.8%	4.08	4.07	+0.8
2033	28	MLB	SD	13	13	70	296	72	26	8	24.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.09	4.09	+0.8
2034	29	MLB	SD	12	12	68	289	70	25	8	24.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.14	+0.7
2035	30	MLB	SD	12	12	66	280	67	25	8	24.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.17	4.20	+0.6
2036	31	MLB	SD	12	12	64	270	64	24	8	23.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.28	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	SD	11	11	61	259	61	24	8	23.5%	9.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.36	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	SD	59	—	59	247	57	23	8	23.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.46	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	SD	56	—	56	235	54	22	8	22.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.57	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			67	12	150	680	113	85	20	16.6%	12.5%	2.9%	6.00	4.86	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			89	16	200	907	151	113	27	16.6%	12.5%	2.9%	6.00	4.86	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kleiber Olmedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	21.3%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.26	23.2%	14.0%	206	-0.37	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	94
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	92
John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	92
Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	91
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	91
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	91
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	91
Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	90
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	90
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	90
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	90
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	90
Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	90
Christian Roa R 2027 · 4.94 FIP	22	SW	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	5.00	22.7%	6.2%	260	+0.06	4.35	373	89
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	89
Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	89
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	89
Levi Wells R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SW	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.54	19.5%	9.7%	110	-0.81	2.08	170	89
Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	89
Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
Totals		$8M		$21M	+$14M