Jeffrey Familia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jeffrey Familia P DSL Nationals

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%21.8%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	13	0	17	79	23	12	3	0%	1.3	19.8%	19.0%	0.8%	5.3%	8.10	6.73	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	13	0	17	79	23	12	3	0%	1.3	19.8%	19.0%	0.8%	5.3%	8.10	6.73	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	13	0	17	79	23	12	3	0%	1.3	29.1%	15.2%	13.9%	3.8%	8.10	4.84	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	31	135	32	17	2	0%	2.1	16.1%	15.7%	0.4%	1.7%	3.77	4.68	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	31	135	32	17	2	0%	2.1	16.1%	15.7%	0.4%	1.7%	3.77	4.68	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	15	0	31	135	32	17	2	0%	2.1	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	3.77	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	13.7%	8.1%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	28	0	29	124	28	15	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	13	0	14	59	13	7	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	14	7	2	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	97	28	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		28	0	48	214	37	36	6	0%	1.7	17.5%	16.9%	0.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	0	200	898	157	152	27	0%	1.7	17.5%	16.9%	0.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.43	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeffrey Familia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	21.8%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.74	22.3%	10.2%	29	-0.27	—	—	—
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	85
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	84
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	84
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	83
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	83
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	80
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	80
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	79
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	78
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	78
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.09	225	78
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	78
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	78
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	77
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	77
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	77