Brody Hopkins
P
Durham Bulls
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.3 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%24.7%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 489 | 133 | 53 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 3.05 | 3.49 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 489 | 133 | 53 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 27.2% | 10.8% | 16.4% | 0.6% | 3.05 | 2.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 25 | 116 | 492 | 141 | 60 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 2.72 | 3.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 25 | 116 | 492 | 141 | 60 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 28.7% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 1.4% | 2.72 | 3.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 15 | 72 | 327 | 87 | 70 | 4 | 83% | 4.0 | 23.4% | 22.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 4.77 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.7% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 136 | 601 | 155 | 107 | 11 | — | — | 25.8% | 17.8% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 4.61 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 6 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 24.7% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 118 | 496 | 124 | 60 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 137 | 64 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 128 | 539 | 134 | 62 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 124 | 523 | 129 | 61 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 122 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 111 | 469 | 113 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 60 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 95 | 44 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 106 | 49 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 110 | 51 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 107 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 102 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 95 | 564 | 2382 | 588 | 281 | 64 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 100 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 65 | 303 | 1308 | 290 | 202 | 19 | 96% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 3.33 | 3.97 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 43 | 200 | 864 | 192 | 133 | 12 | 96% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 3.33 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brody Hopkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 24.7% | 13.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.26 | 25.0% | 13.3% | 375 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 88 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 85 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 84 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 84 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 84 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 83 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 83 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 82 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 80 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 80 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .344 | 5.55 | 31.7% | 18.3% | 18 | +0.49 | 4.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 79 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 79 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 79 |
| Justin Lewis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.34 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.1% | .323 | 6.50 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 98 | +3.16 | 3.34 | 213 | 79 |
| Jaime Schultz R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.56 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 2.3% | .297 | 3.80 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 209 | -0.76 | 2.14 | 391 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .314 | 5.13 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 271 | +1.05 | 3.65 | 514 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 118 | 24.7% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 4.37 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |