Brody Hopkins — OGILVIE

Brody Hopkins P Durham Bulls

+1.4 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2028

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%11.1%

IP116

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2028

OFP—55

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	20.4%	12.7%	0.9%	3.05	3.46	+2.4
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	23.2%	13.4%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	4	4	18	80	21	17	2	23.1%	22.3%	2.8%	2.45	5.49	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	TB	21	21	116	489	112	58	12	22.9%	11.9%	2.4%	4.37	4.37	+1.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	TB	—	—	134	569	133	75	14	23.4%	13.2%	2.4%	4.11	4.52	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	TB	23	23	129	545	127	59	13	23.2%	10.8%	2.5%	4.28	4.23	+1.6
2028	26	MLB	TB	25	25	136	575	134	61	14	23.3%	10.5%	2.5%	4.24	4.21	+1.7
2029	27	MLB	TB	25	25	139	587	137	61	15	23.3%	10.4%	2.5%	4.23	4.22	+1.7
2030	28	MLB	TB	25	25	139	587	136	61	15	23.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.24	4.25	+1.7
2031	29	MLB	TB	25	25	136	574	132	60	15	23.1%	10.5%	2.6%	4.27	4.29	+1.6
2032	30	MLB	TB	24	24	132	556	127	59	15	22.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.32	4.36	+1.4
2033	31	MLB	TB	23	23	127	537	122	57	15	22.6%	10.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.43	+1.3
2034	32	MLB	TB	22	22	122	516	115	56	15	22.4%	10.8%	2.8%	4.47	4.52	+1.1
2035	33	MLB	TB	21	21	117	492	109	54	14	22.1%	11.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.62	+0.9
2036	34	MLB	TB	20	20	111	468	102	53	14	21.7%	11.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.73	+0.7
2037	35	MLB	TB	19	19	104	441	94	50	14	21.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.77	4.85	+0.5
2038	36	MLB	TB	18	18	98	412	86	48	13	20.9%	11.7%	3.3%	4.90	4.98	+0.3
2039	37	MLB	TB	16	16	90	382	78	46	13	20.4%	12.0%	3.4%	5.04	5.13	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			54	54	249	1061	232	146	16	21.9%	13.8%	1.5%	2.85	3.80	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			43	43	200	851	186	117	13	21.9%	13.8%	1.5%	2.85	3.80	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Hopkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.9%	11.9%	2.4%	—	4.22	23.3%	12.7%	404	-0.15	—	—	—
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP-	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.2%	.280	6.90	17.1%	1.8%	38	+3.23	3.67	270	93
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	93
Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	24	SP-	4.19	23.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.287	4.02	24.5%	15.7%	313	-0.17	3.31	571	91
Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP-	4.07	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.78	23.7%	14.8%	41	-0.29	3.78	293	88
Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.35	25.2%	14.2%	148	+0.13	2.01	352	86
Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	22.6%	10.3%	3.9%	.279	4.35	22.4%	12.5%	132	-0.28	4.35	254	86
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP-	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.28	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.32	2.16	615	86
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	85
R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	85
George Klassen R 2025 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	22.2%	11.0%	2.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	196	83
Dom Hamel R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP-	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	3.0%	.314	5.18	19.7%	7.6%	204	+1.24	3.60	447	83
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP-	4.31	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.37	17.8%	9.7%	313	+0.06	2.50	554	83
Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.6%	10.6%	2.9%	.358	3.57	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.73	3.57	182	83
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP-	4.92	23.2%	13.6%	3.7%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.92	119	83
Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP-	3.72	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.80	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.08	2.67	615	82
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.83	4.02	118	82
Ariel Peña R 2028 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.90	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.11	3.79	223	82
Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP-	3.95	22.2%	9.9%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	350	82
Ryan Feltner R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	21.9%	9.9%	2.1%	.306	3.85	20.3%	11.7%	355	+0.20	2.32	678	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.7	$15M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+1.5	$14M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.4	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$20M		$85M	+$65M