Brody Hopkins — OGILVIE

Brody Hopkins P Durham Bulls

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%25.0%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL3545

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	0.6%	3.05	2.51	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	28.7%	12.2%	16.5%	1.4%	2.72	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	31	19	94	438	122	92	5	61%	3.0	23.1%	18.9%	4.2%	1.3%	5.17	4.23	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	31	19	94	438	122	92	5	61%	3.0	23.1%	18.9%	4.2%	1.3%	5.17	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	TB	31	19	94	438	122	92	5	61%	3.0	27.9%	21.0%	6.8%	1.1%	5.17	4.04	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	9	38	9	5	1	100%	4.5	25.0%	13.6%	11.4%	2.4%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	25.0%	13.6%	11.4%	2.5%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	103	476	131	97	6	—	—	27.6%	20.4%	7.2%	1.2%	5.10	4.25	+0.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	3	11	3	2	0	—	—	25.0%	13.6%	11.4%	2.5%	4.45	4.07	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	124	522	133	64	13	100%	5.9	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	2.4%	4.29	4.22	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	136	573	146	68	14	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	2.5%	4.23	4.19	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	138	581	147	68	15	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.7%	13.6%	2.6%	4.23	4.23	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	138	581	146	68	16	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.28	4.31	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	132	555	138	66	16	100%	6.0	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.44	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	124	522	128	64	16	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.3%	12.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.62	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	487	117	61	16	100%	6.1	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	107	451	107	59	16	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	3.5%	4.91	5.05	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	73	308	78	38	8	100%	6.1	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	2.5%	4.33	4.26	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	102	431	110	51	11	100%	6.0	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	2.6%	4.27	4.23	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	114	481	122	56	13	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.7%	13.6%	2.6%	4.27	4.27	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	120	507	127	60	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.35	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	118	498	124	60	14	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.49	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	113	477	117	59	15	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.67	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	107	452	109	57	15	100%	5.9	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	100	422	100	55	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	3.6%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	850	3591	890	436	105	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.15	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	209	103	25	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		81	69	325	1419	315	211	19	85%	4.0	22.2%	14.9%	7.3%	1.3%	3.54	3.83	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	42	200	873	194	130	12	85%	4.0	22.2%	14.9%	7.3%	1.3%	3.54	3.83	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Hopkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	25.0%	13.6%	2.4%	—	4.21	25.4%	13.5%	397	-0.20	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	90
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.13	19.2%	10.0%	219	+0.69	3.44	428	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	80
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	80
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	77
Chayce McDermott R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	24	SP	3.80	25.3%	14.2%	1.9%	.228	4.19	24.8%	10.9%	205	+0.39	3.53	446	77
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	77
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	77
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	123	24.9%	12.3%	1.07	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32