Brody Hopkins

P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAARP40M40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	115	3.05	2.51	27.2%	10.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.45
2025	23	AATB	25	25	116	2.72	3.01	28.7%	12.2%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.86
2026	24	MIX2 levels	37	19	99	5.16	4.25	27.9%	21.2%	1.3	K 24.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	13	13	77	4.54	4.54	26.0%	16.7%	0.8
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBTB	15	15	91	4.48	4.47	26.1%	15.7%	1.0
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBTB	14	14	87	4.48	4.49	25.7%	15.2%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%26.0%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP114

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	0.6%	3.05	2.51	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	28.7%	12.2%	16.5%	1.4%	2.72	3.01	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	24.0%	18.9%	5.1%	1.3%	5.16	4.16	+1.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	24.0%	18.9%	5.1%	1.3%	5.16	4.16	+1.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	27.9%	21.2%	6.7%	1.3%	5.16	4.25	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.9	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	5.06	6.29	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	13	13	77	325	85	54	7	100%	5.9	26.0%	16.7%	9.3%	2.1%	4.54	4.54	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	114	480	125	76	10	100%	6.0	26.1%	15.7%	10.3%	2.2%	4.48	4.47	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	102	430	111	65	10	100%	6.0	25.7%	15.2%	10.5%	2.3%	4.48	4.49	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	97	409	104	61	10	100%	6.0	25.4%	15.0%	10.5%	2.4%	4.52	4.56	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	89	376	94	56	10	100%	5.9	25.1%	15.0%	10.1%	2.6%	4.61	4.68	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	80	340	84	52	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	15.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.76	4.86	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	100	60	8	100%	6.1	26.1%	15.7%	10.3%	2.2%	4.48	4.47	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	87	367	95	56	8	100%	6.2	25.7%	15.2%	10.5%	2.3%	4.48	4.49	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	86	363	92	54	9	100%	6.1	25.4%	15.0%	10.5%	2.4%	4.52	4.56	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	81	342	86	51	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	15.0%	10.1%	2.6%	4.61	4.68	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	74	312	77	48	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	15.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.76	4.86	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	70	425	1794	458	276	44	92%	5.6	25.5%	15.4%	10.1%	2.5%	4.57	4.24	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	845	216	130	21	92%	5.6	25.5%	15.4%	10.1%	2.5%	4.57	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		87	69	330	1443	324	215	19	79%	3.8	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	42	200	874	196	130	12	79%	3.8	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 94 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.16 (+0.13)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.85%	—	×0.860	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.00%	—	×0.900	18.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 116 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.86 (+0.85)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.66%	—	×0.810	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.100	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.922	×1.200	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 84 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.56 (+0.98)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.54%	—	×0.740	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.180	13.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷0.897	×1.300	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 31 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.18 (+0.85)K% 29.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.01%	—	×0.770	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.150	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.015	×1.250	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Hopkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.1%	—	4.50	25.8%	10.4%	312	-0.04	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	74
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	72
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	71
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	71
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	70
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	68
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	68
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	68
José De León R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	24	SP	3.52	23.0%	14.6%	0.9%	.364	3.24	28.9%	16.1%	51	-0.28	3.24	445	67
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	66
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	65
Grant Kipp R 2024 · 4.75 FIP	24	SP-	4.75	18.9%	14.1%	2.7%	.263	4.55	20.9%	9.0%	201	-0.20	4.32	355	65
DJ Myers R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	22.9%	12.4%	2.4%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	257	65
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	65
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	65
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	65
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	65
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	100	25.6%	15.6%	0.92	4.56
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Bruce Berenyi ('80-'86, 7 WAR*)	3.9	130	24.6%*	12.6%*	0.59*	4.68*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90