Nigel Belgrave — OGILVIE

Nigel Belgrave P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.91

FIP3.91

K%26.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%16.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	11	50	17	10	0	0%	1.9	34.0%	20.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.76	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	11	50	17	10	0	0%	1.9	34.0%	20.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.76	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	11	50	17	10	0	0%	1.9	34.0%	20.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	1.1%	2.89	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	1.1%	2.89	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	29.5%	10.8%	18.7%	0.8%	2.89	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	1.3%	2.51	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	1.3%	2.51	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	33.2%	9.7%	23.5%	1.1%	2.51	2.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	23.6%	9.6%	13.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.49	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	23.6%	9.6%	13.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIA	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	29.1%	8.8%	20.4%	1.8%	3.82	2.71	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	26.7%	10.6%	16.1%	2.4%	3.91	3.91	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	74	310	90	28	6	—	—	28.9%	8.9%	20.0%	1.8%	3.83	3.52	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	87	0	91	385	102	37	10	0%	1.0	26.6%	9.6%	17.0%	2.5%	3.86	3.81	+0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	87	0	91	385	102	36	10	0%	1.0	26.5%	9.4%	17.1%	2.5%	3.85	3.82	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	85	0	90	379	99	35	10	0%	1.1	26.2%	9.4%	16.9%	2.6%	3.87	3.88	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	83	0	87	367	95	35	10	0%	1.0	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	2.7%	3.93	3.97	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	79	0	83	351	90	34	10	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.03	4.10	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	74	0	78	330	90	30	10	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.2%	18.2%	3.1%	4.02	4.01	+0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	38	0	40	169	45	16	4	0%	1.1	26.6%	9.6%	17.0%	2.4%	3.79	3.74	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	58	0	61	258	68	24	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	9.4%	17.1%	2.4%	3.78	3.75	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	67	0	70	296	77	28	7	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.4%	16.9%	2.5%	3.80	3.81	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	70	0	73	308	80	29	8	0%	1.0	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	2.6%	3.86	3.90	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	70	0	73	308	79	30	8	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.7%	3.95	4.02	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	67	0	70	296	81	27	9	0%	1.0	27.4%	9.2%	18.2%	2.9%	3.94	3.93	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	431	154	42	0%	1.0	26.4%	9.4%	16.9%	2.6%	3.86	3.49	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	223	80	22	0%	1.0	26.4%	9.4%	16.9%	2.6%	3.86	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		132	1	210	863	215	99	12	1%	1.6	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	1.4%	3.09	3.22	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	1	200	822	205	94	12	1%	1.6	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	1.4%	3.09	3.22	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nigel Belgrave (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	26.7%	10.6%	2.4%	—	3.84	26.4%	17.0%	272	-0.07	—	—	—
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	88
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	88
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	87
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	86
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	85
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	84
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	83
Ian Gardeck R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	24	SU	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	83
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	83
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	83
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	83
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	82
Scott Boches R 2019 · 2.94 FIP	24	SU	2.94	23.8%	10.2%	1.0%	.312	7.30	14.8%	4.0%	16	+4.36	2.94	195	82
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	82
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	82
Jordan Gore R 2021 · 3.20 FIP	26	SU	3.20	25.8%	11.9%	1.4%	.223	5.37	15.2%	-3.3%	46	+2.17	3.20	113	82
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	82
Eli Villalobos R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.88	22.7%	9.7%	153	+1.13	3.75	214	82
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	26.4%	9.6%	1.03	3.92
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66