Nigel Belgrave
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10898vR 89
ERA3.87
FIP3.87
K%26.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 34.0% | 20.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.76 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 34.0% | 20.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 74 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 2.89 | 3.36 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 62 | 251 | 74 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.5% | 10.8% | 18.7% | 0.8% | 2.89 | 2.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 68 | 277 | 92 | 27 | 3 | 2% | 1.7 | 26.5% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 1.1% | 2.51 | 2.89 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 68 | 277 | 92 | 27 | 3 | 2% | 1.7 | 33.2% | 9.7% | 23.5% | 1.1% | 2.51 | 2.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 25 | 0 | 39 | 179 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 6.05 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 101 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.87 | 3.87 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 129 | 559 | 143 | 58 | 12 | — | — | 25.6% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 3.93 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.7% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 3.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 102 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 3.78 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 102 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 99 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.85 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 95 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 79 | 0 | 83 | 351 | 90 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 74 | 0 | 78 | 330 | 90 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 18.4% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 83 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 68 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 80 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.90 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 79 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.04 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 81 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 18.4% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 76 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 4.06 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 434 | 0 | 455 | 1923 | 509 | 179 | 52 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.53 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 224 | 79 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 1 | 180 | 757 | 182 | 92 | 10 | 1% | 1.6 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 1.3% | 3.44 | 3.32 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 1 | 200 | 840 | 201 | 102 | 11 | 1% | 1.6 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 1.3% | 3.44 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nigel Belgrave (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.87 | 26.7% | 10.4% | 2.4% | — | 3.81 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 272 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Trent Harris R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.45 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 87 | +0.62 | 3.45 | 163 | 88 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .304 | 4.02 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 62 | +0.30 | 2.90 | 176 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 87 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.05 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 1.3% | .280 | 4.18 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 77 | +1.13 | 3.05 | 134 | 84 |
| Scott Boches R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.18 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .312 | 7.76 | 14.8% | 4.0% | 16 | +4.58 | 2.97 | 195 | 84 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.91 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 105 | 83 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 83 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 83 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 83 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 2.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.69 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 1.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 145 | 83 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 83 |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.07 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.73 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.66 | 3.07 | 110 | 83 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 83 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 82 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.93 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .214 | 3.91 | 17.9% | 6.4% | 74 | -0.02 | 3.80 | 190 | 82 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 82 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 85 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 1.05 | 3.92 |
| Garrett Richards ('22) | 7 | 82 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 0.98 | 3.95 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |
| Mychal Givens ('22) | 8 | 57 | 28.4% | 9.8% | 1.06 | 3.40 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |