Sandro Santana

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#491ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKARI	8	1	19	7.11	5.21	22.6%	15.5%	—	K 15.4% · BB 19.3% · FIP 7.39
2025	20	MIX2 levels	26	0	59	2.73	3.27	24.3%	12.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.48
2026	21	MIX3 levels	46	0	64	1.97	1.96	39.6%	11.8%	—	K 31.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 2.79
2027PROJ	22	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.12	4.12	29.9%	13.3%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBSTL	30	0	32	3.91	3.83	29.8%	11.8%	0.2
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBSTL	47	0	49	3.80	3.71	29.8%	10.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Ext$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJimmy Burnette (age 23) · Hayden Harris (age 24) · Quintin Torres-Costa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%29.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	18.4%	16.0%	2.4%	0.0%	4.71	3.57	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	0.0%	4.71	2.37	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	22.6%	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	7.11	5.21	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	24.3%	12.4%	12.0%	1.2%	2.73	3.27	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	1.97	2.79	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	1.97	2.79	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	39.6%	11.8%	27.8%	1.2%	1.97	1.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.9%	13.3%	16.6%	2.7%	4.12	4.12	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	90	380	113	45	10	0%	1.0	29.8%	11.8%	18.1%	2.7%	4.01	3.93	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	90	380	113	41	10	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.9%	19.0%	2.7%	3.90	3.81	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	71	0	74	314	94	32	8	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.81	3.74	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	71	0	74	313	93	32	8	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	69	0	72	306	91	31	8	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.3%	19.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.76	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	292	87	30	8	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.4%	19.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.85	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	271	80	29	8	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.7%	18.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	245	71	27	8	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	3.2%	4.06	4.16	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	30	0	32	135	40	16	3	0%	1.1	29.8%	11.8%	18.1%	2.5%	3.91	3.83	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	47	0	49	207	62	22	5	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.9%	19.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.71	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	48	0	50	211	63	22	5	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.3%	19.5%	2.5%	3.71	3.64	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	53	0	56	236	71	24	6	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	2.5%	3.66	3.63	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	56	0	59	249	74	26	6	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.3%	19.6%	2.5%	3.65	3.65	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	56	0	59	249	74	26	7	0%	1.1	29.7%	10.4%	19.3%	2.6%	3.70	3.74	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	53	0	56	236	70	25	7	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.7%	18.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.87	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	64	24	7	0%	1.0	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	3.0%	3.94	4.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		393	0	413	1742	517	185	46	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.6%	19.1%	2.6%	3.76	3.37	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	251	90	22	0%	1.1	29.7%	10.6%	19.1%	2.6%	3.76	3.37	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		90	4	171	723	159	106	13	4%	1.9	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	1.8%	3.26	4.05	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	5	200	846	186	123	15	4%	1.9	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	1.8%	3.26	4.05	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 31 IPFIP 2.04 → 3.16 (+1.12)K% 37.4% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.40%	—	×0.770	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.150	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 24 IPFIP 1.28 → 2.24 (+0.97)K% 44.3% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.32%	—	×0.810	35.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×1.100	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.28 → 2.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 9 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.01 (+0.15)K% 36.1% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.860	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.22%	—	×0.900	20.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 48 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.48 (+0.80)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.17%	—	×0.740	16.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.180	15.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.283	×1.300	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 11 IPFIP 1.04 → 2.26 (+1.21)K% 35.9% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.90%	—	×0.680	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.250	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.862	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 1.04 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 19 IPFIP 5.11 → 7.39 (+2.28)K% 22.6% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.680	15.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.48%	—	×1.250	19.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.875	×1.400	5.72%

Result: FIP 5.11 → 7.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Arizona Black · 29 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.57 (+1.14)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.680	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.78%	—	×1.250	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandro Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	3.83	29.8%	18.8%	254	-0.29	—	—	—
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.82	22.1%	6.7%	101	+0.23	3.00	158	85
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	81
Quintin Torres-Costa L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	25.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.340	2.51	24.8%	12.9%	55	-1.45	2.51	248	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	80
Héctor Santiago L 2012 · 4.30 FIP	24	SU	4.30	25.8%	12.7%	3.2%	.247	4.22	20.6%	11.2%	457	-0.08	4.07	1,059	78
Andrew Sisco L 2005 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	23.1%	11.6%	1.8%	.297	4.71	18.5%	5.8%	72	+1.10	3.61	148	77
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	77
Danny Wilkinson L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	31.0%	20.1%	1.5%	.327	4.29	25.5%	4.8%	44	+0.42	3.87	101	77
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	76
Justin Storm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP	22	SU	3.14	26.5%	14.9%	0.7%	.267	4.29	17.6%	1.9%	118	+1.15	3.14	167	76
Liam Norris L 2023 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	30.0%	16.8%	2.3%	.296	8.57	23.3%	-13.8%	27	+4.59	3.98	184	76
Garrett Cleavinger L 2016 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	24.5%	11.8%	2.0%	.314	3.74	24.0%	9.2%	106	+0.12	2.92	424	76
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	76
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	75
Jakob Hernandez L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	22	SU	2.99	23.9%	12.0%	0.7%	.345	3.40	23.3%	13.1%	123	+0.41	2.99	266	75
Ronny Agustin L 2017 · 3.11 FIP	22	SU	3.11	27.5%	14.3%	0.9%	.286	4.52	14.6%	-3.9%	46	+1.41	3.11	158	74
Nate Lavender L 2022 · 3.17 FIP	22	SU	3.17	25.5%	14.6%	0.7%	.292	4.01	30.2%	20.3%	44	+0.84	2.48	146	74
Ben Harris L 2022 · 3.06 FIP	22	SU	3.06	33.9%	18.2%	1.0%	.326	5.08	23.8%	3.1%	128	+2.02	3.06	183	74
Tim Collins L 2012 · 3.16 FIP	22	SU	3.16	31.5%	8.8%	2.9%	.280	3.76	20.7%	8.9%	74	+0.60	3.16	297	74
Trey Cumbie L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	23	SU	3.44	22.5%	12.6%	1.2%	.318	4.78	24.4%	8.7%	91	+1.34	3.44	152	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	29.7%	11.1%	1.07	3.91
Octavio Dotel ('13)	4.8	79	28.4%	10.2%	1.11	3.78
Dave LaRoche ('70-'83, 10 WAR*)	5.2	81	27.8%*	10.1%*	1.16*	4.03*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Ugueth Urbina ('05)	3.5	70	27.9%	10.5%	1.11	3.45
Brad Lidge ('12)	3.0	75	30.9%	11.1%	0.85	3.54