Sandro Santana
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
5'10" / 150 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2030
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.7%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 10 | 3 | 29 | 133 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 18.4% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 3.57 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 8 | 1 | 19 | 84 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 15.4% | 19.3% | 6.1% | 7.11 | 7.60 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 26 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 16.4% | 15.6% | 1.4% | 2.73 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 36 | 156 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 4 | 111 | 490 | 87 | 80 | 9 | 17.7% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 4.04 | 4.63 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 7 | 200 | 880 | 156 | 144 | 16 | 17.7% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 4.04 | 4.63 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sandro Santana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.21 | 23.5% | 14.0% | 104 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 88 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 86 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 86 |
| Denny Bentley L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 86 |
| Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .319 | 2.81 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 78 | -2.23 | 1.26 | 157 | 85 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 85 |
| Brian Marconi L 2029 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 84 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 84 |
| Connor Curlis L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.07 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.58 | 3.49 | 309 | 83 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 83 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.94 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.03 | 3.08 | 266 | 83 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 83 |
| Luis Paulino L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.54 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .269 | 2.75 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 50 | -0.79 | 2.57 | 103 | 83 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.70 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.91 | 20.2% | 3.5% | 81 | +0.21 | 3.11 | 158 | 83 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 82 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.42 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .208 | 4.74 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 331 | 82 |
| Zach Morris L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.35 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +0.76 | 3.35 | 109 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$4M | ||