Sandro Santana
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 21
LHP
5'10" / 150 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 81 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.16
FIP5.16
K%19.5%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP81
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 10 | 3 | 29 | 133 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 30% | 2.9 | 18.4% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 3.57 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 10 | 3 | 29 | 133 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 30% | 2.9 | 27.1% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 2.37 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 8 | 1 | 19 | 84 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 12% | 2.4 | 15.4% | 19.3% | -4.0% | 6.7% | 7.11 | 7.91 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 8 | 1 | 19 | 84 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 12% | 2.4 | 22.6% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 7.11 | 5.21 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 2.3 | 16.4% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.73 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 2.3 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 2.73 | 3.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 0 | 40 | 165 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.8% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 1.9% | 2.23 | 3.16 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 67 | 48 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.5% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 121 | 507 | 130 | 61 | 12 | — | — | 25.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 14.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 79 | 44 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.71 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 84 | 0 | 88 | 372 | 87 | 41 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 382 | 93 | 40 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.24 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 92 | 386 | 96 | 39 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.14 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 92 | 386 | 98 | 39 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 96 | 38 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 77 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 85 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 90 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 90 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 409 | 0 | 430 | 1814 | 443 | 190 | 50 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 3.87 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 88 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 4 | 147 | 633 | 126 | 95 | 12 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.9% | 15.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 4.34 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 5 | 200 | 859 | 171 | 130 | 16 | 6% | 2.1 | 19.9% | 15.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sandro Santana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 19.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.45 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 264 | -0.71 | — | — | — |
| Rio Britton L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.19 | 19.2% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .354 | 4.77 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 60 | +0.58 | 4.19 | 128 | 88 |
| Caden Monke L 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.38 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.28 | 19.0% | -0.3% | 51 | -0.10 | 3.73 | 152 | 86 |
| Will Mabrey L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.11 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .256 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 46 | +0.01 | 4.11 | 112 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 86 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .341 | 3.53 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.78 | 3.41 | 265 | 84 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 83 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.41 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.12 | 4.41 | 132 | 83 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 82 |
| Seth Clark L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.13 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +0.83 | 4.30 | 128 | 82 |
| Spencer Herrmann L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.10 | 18.0% | 15.1% | 1.1% | .293 | 4.37 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 169 | +0.27 | 3.86 | 225 | 82 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2029 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 81 |
| Jorger Petri L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.93 | 19.1% | 15.2% | 2.8% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 147 | 81 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 80 |
| Andrew Walling L 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.95 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 105 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 161 | 80 |
| Ryan Wilson L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.93 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .279 | 4.41 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 113 | -0.52 | 3.43 | 222 | 80 |
| Harry Gustin L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 80 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 80 |
| Cam Alldred L 2028 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.60 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 332 | 80 |
| Shane McCain L 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 80 |
| Matt Walker L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .324 | 4.69 | 15.5% | 4.0% | 94 | +0.42 | 4.27 | 156 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 88 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 1.07 | 4.49 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |