Sandro Santana — OGILVIE

Sandro Santana P Hillsboro Hops

Age 21 LHP 5'10" / 150 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 136

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%19.5%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CMD3545

K†4560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	18.4%	16.0%	2.4%	0.0%	4.71	3.57	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	18.4%	16.0%	2.4%	0.0%	4.71	3.57	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	0.0%	4.71	2.37	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	22.6%	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	7.11	5.21	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	24.3%	12.4%	12.0%	1.2%	2.73	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	0	60	241	95	28	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	2.09	2.79	—
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	43	0	60	241	95	28	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	2.09	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	STL	20	0	31	131	49	13	2	0%	1.5	37.4%	9.9%	27.5%	1.5%	2.93	2.04	—
2026	21	AA RAW	STL	19	0	24	88	39	9	1	0%	1.3	44.3%	10.2%	34.1%	1.1%	0.74	1.28	—
2026	21	AAA RAW	STL	4	0	5	22	7	6	0	0%	1.3	31.8%	27.3%	4.5%	0.0%	3.38	3.87	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	15.8%	3.7%	2.8%	5.39	5.39	-0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	66	266	100	32	4	—	—	37.6%	12.0%	25.6%	1.4%	2.38	3.02	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	STL	81	0	85	359	79	49	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	2.8%	5.04	4.88	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	84	0	88	372	87	45	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.8%	4.73	4.55	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	90	382	93	43	11	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.35	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	87	0	92	386	96	41	11	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.22	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	87	0	92	386	98	41	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.6%	14.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.19	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	90	380	96	41	11	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.7%	14.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.23	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	83	0	87	369	93	40	11	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	80	0	84	353	88	39	11	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	STL	75	0	78	331	88	35	11	0%	1.0	26.5%	10.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	STL	40	0	42	177	39	24	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	2.8%	5.04	4.88	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	61	0	64	270	63	33	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.8%	4.73	4.55	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	71	0	75	317	77	35	9	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.35	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	77	0	81	342	85	36	9	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.22	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	80	0	84	355	90	38	10	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.6%	14.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.19	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	80	0	84	355	90	38	10	0%	1.1	25.2%	10.7%	14.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.23	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	78	0	82	346	87	37	10	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	75	0	79	334	83	37	10	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	STL	71	0	75	317	84	33	10	0%	1.1	26.5%	10.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		633	0	665	2808	697	311	81	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	94	24	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		87	4	167	709	155	104	12	5%	1.9	21.8%	14.7%	7.2%	1.8%	3.33	4.08	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	5	200	847	185	124	15	5%	1.9	21.8%	14.7%	7.2%	1.8%	3.33	4.08	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandro Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	19.5%	15.8%	2.8%	—	4.59	23.3%	11.0%	264	-0.80	—	—	—
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	85
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	83
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	83
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	82
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	81
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	80
Raúl Alcantara L 2022 · 4.66 FIP	21	SU	4.66	16.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.291	4.42	18.9%	3.7%	230	-0.24	3.82	396	80
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	79
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	78
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	78
Nathanael Heredia L 2022 · 4.67 FIP	21	SU	4.67	19.4%	18.2%	1.6%	.289	4.77	17.4%	-0.7%	110	+0.10	3.74	290	78
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	78
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	78
Felix Carvallo L 2015 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	17.1%	9.8%	3.0%	.323	4.60	17.7%	4.7%	67	+0.04	4.56	132	78
Ryan Wilson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	16.2%	13.8%	2.2%	.279	4.35	20.7%	10.3%	113	-0.37	3.43	222	78
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	77
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	87	24.1%	11.6%	1.11	4.54
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77