Justin Storm

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 25 LHP 6'7" / 232 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	32	0	50	1.97	2.17	34.4%	13.4%	—	K 26.5% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.14
2025	23	A+MIA	43	0	62	3.21	3.98	20.2%	15.4%	—	K 15.6% · BB 17.7% · FIP 4.79
2026	24	MIX2 levels	41	0	64	4.36	4.19	24.4%	13.7%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.5% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.63	5.63	17.3%	17.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIA	20	0	21	5.48	5.47	18.1%	16.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIA	25	0	26	5.41	5.42	18.5%	16.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsFabian Williamson (age 26) · Nick Lee (age 25) · Chris Reed (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%17.3%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	4	0	4	23	4	6	0	0%	1.1	17.4%	26.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.23	4.94	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	4	0	4	23	4	6	0	0%	1.1	17.4%	26.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.23	5.41	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	50	209	72	28	1	0%	1.6	26.5%	14.9%	11.6%	0.7%	1.97	3.14	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	50	209	72	28	1	0%	1.6	26.5%	14.9%	11.6%	0.7%	1.97	3.14	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	50	209	72	28	1	0%	1.6	34.4%	13.4%	21.1%	0.5%	1.97	2.17	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	43	0	62	267	54	41	3	0%	1.4	15.6%	17.7%	-2.1%	1.4%	3.21	4.79	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	43	0	62	267	54	41	3	0%	1.4	15.6%	17.7%	-2.1%	1.4%	3.21	4.79	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	43	0	62	267	54	41	3	0%	1.4	20.2%	15.4%	4.9%	1.1%	3.21	3.98	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	271	66	37	7	0%	1.6	19.8%	13.5%	6.3%	1.1%	4.36	3.74	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	271	66	37	7	0%	1.6	19.8%	13.5%	6.3%	1.1%	4.36	3.74	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	64	271	66	37	7	0%	1.6	24.4%	13.7%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	17.5%	-0.2%	2.5%	5.63	5.63	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	50	210	38	35	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	16.6%	1.5%	2.6%	5.48	5.47	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	178	33	29	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	2.7%	5.41	5.42	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	37	0	38	162	30	26	5	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.9%	2.7%	2.8%	5.42	5.45	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	34	0	36	150	28	24	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	2.9%	5.49	5.56	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	16	15	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	16.6%	1.5%	2.6%	5.48	5.47	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	20	18	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	2.7%	5.41	5.42	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	23	20	3	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.9%	2.7%	2.8%	5.42	5.45	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	23	20	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	2.9%	5.49	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	0	106	447	82	72	12	0%	1.0	18.4%	16.1%	2.3%	2.8%	5.45	5.10	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	136	23	0%	1.1	18.4%	16.1%	2.3%	2.8%	5.45	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		120	0	180	770	155	121	8	0%	1.5	20.1%	15.7%	4.4%	1.1%	3.34	3.98	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	854	171	134	9	0%	1.5	20.1%	15.7%	4.4%	1.1%	3.34	3.98	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 56 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.74 (+0.84)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.65%	—	×0.770	19.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.74%	—	×1.150	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 8 IPFIP 11.44 → 13.36 (+1.92)K% 17.1% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.07%	—	×0.810	13.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.39%	—	×1.100	26.83%
HR / BF /BF	12.20%	÷1.000	×1.200	14.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 11.44 → 13.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 62 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.79 (+0.83)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.770	15.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.36%	—	×1.150	17.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.40%

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 32 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.72 (+1.23)K% 32.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.82%	—	×0.740	24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.74%	—	×1.180	16.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 18 IPFIP 1.13 → 2.11 (+0.98)K% 39.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.73%	—	×0.770	30.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.96%	—	×1.150	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.935	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.13 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 4 IPFIP 4.94 → 6.23 (+1.30)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.09%	—	×1.250	32.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.995	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.94 → 6.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Storm (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	17.3%	17.5%	2.5%	—	5.45	18.4%	2.1%	130	-0.18	—	—	—
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	91
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	89
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	88
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	85
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	84
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	84
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	83
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	82
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	82
Sean Keselica L 2018 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	15.9%	18.5%	2.2%	.226	4.47	18.0%	3.5%	52	-0.86	2.79	235	82
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	81
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	80
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	79
R.C. Orlan L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	25	SU	5.25	14.8%	20.2%	1.5%	.243	4.48	18.2%	9.9%	81	-0.77	1.71	206	79
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	78
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	78
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	78
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	18.1%	16.6%	1.03	5.50
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*