Tom Poole

OF Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ATB	86	.200/.333/.357	3	0	37	—	.151/.262/.260
2026	23	A+/ATB	406	.237/.361/.424	14	6	60	—	.177/.269/.305
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTB	380	.184/.267/.312	10	6	64	-0.4
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTB	71	.188/.271/.316	2	1	67	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO87

wRC+54

BB%53

wOBA51

Chase%48

Speed23

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsChris Epps (age 24) · Dillon Paulson (age 24) · Nick Yarnall (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 206 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .265 / .309

PA206

HR5

K%35

BB%9

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	70	14	2	0	3	10	32	4	0	1	200	333	357	690	157	297	37	12	312	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	118	102	23	4	0	7	14	44	1	1	0	225	325	471	795	245	314	37	12	348	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	288	235	57	15	1	7	45	83	5	5	3	243	375	404	780	162	338	29	16	352	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	73	11	2	0	2	7	43	4	0	1	151	262	260	522	110	262	50	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	118	108	18	3	0	5	8	58	1	1	0	167	231	333	564	167	271	49	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	288	249	45	11	1	5	31	113	5	5	3	181	284	293	577	112	293	39	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	73	11	2	0	2	7	43	4	0	1	151	262	260	522	110	300	50	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	70	14	2	0	3	10	32	4	0	1	200	333	357	690	157	297	37	12	312	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	357	63	14	1	10	39	170	6	6	3	176	269	305	574	129	294	42	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	406	337	80	19	1	14	59	127	6	6	3	237	361	424	785	187	332	31	15	351	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	75	11	2	0	2	7	43	4	0	1	147	262	253	515	107	262	50	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	358	63	14	1	10	39	170	6	6	3	176	269	304	573	128	287	42	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	86	75	11	2	0	2	7	43	4	0	1	147	262	253	515	107	262	50	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	406	358	63	14	1	10	39	170	6	6	3	176	269	304	573	128	287	42	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	0%	380	338	62	12	1	10	34	134	5	6	2	184	267	312	579	128	266	35	9	263	64	-16	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	30%	237	211	40	8	1	6	21	82	3	4	1	187	270	318	588	131	267	35	9	267	67	-9	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	30%	71	64	12	2	0	2	6	25	1	1	0	188	271	316	588	128	270	35	8	267	67	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	71	64	12	2	0	2	6	25	1	1	0	188	268	312	580	125	270	35	8	267	61	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	109	18	0	18	55	229	9	9	0	186	266	309	575	123	268	35	8	267	61	-26	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	935	825	147	30	3	23	85	368	15	13	6	178	267	305	572	127	281	39	9	258	61	-18	+1	+0	-3	+10	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	102	21	2	16	59	256	10	9	4	178	266	305	571	127	280	39	9	258	61	-27	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 288 PAwOBA .347 → .261 (−86)K% 28.8% → 39.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.82%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	39.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.62%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	10.57%
HBP% /PA	1.74%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.33%
Singles /BIP	22.37%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.001	×0.980	20.20%
Doubles /BIP	9.87%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.001	×0.980	8.04%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.001	×0.980	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	4.61%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	3.61%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .347 → .261; ISO .162 → .120; BABIP .338 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 118 PAwOBA .339 → .246 (−92)K% 37.3% → 48.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.29%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	48.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.86%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	7.03%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	0.64%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.050	×0.988	18.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.050	×0.988	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.050	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.07%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	10.49%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .339 → .246; ISO .245 → .186; BABIP .314 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 86 PAwOBA .312 → .223 (−89)K% 37.2% → 50.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.21%	÷1.006	×1.360	—	—	50.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×0.990	8.07%
HBP% /PA	4.65%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.59%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×0.990	21.30%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.850	×0.830	—	×0.990	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.121	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷1.159	×0.800	—	×0.990	5.40%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .312 → .223; ISO .157 → .099; BABIP .297 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	277	7	4	185	266	315	-2	+0	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	17	10	-4.0	+0.0	-1.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tom Poole (OGILVIE)	24	20	45	45	54	182/265/309	127	266	5	3	35%	9%	64	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Epps 2013 · A	24	41→36	48→50	48→45	42	208/271/349	142	295	16	9	34%	8%	74	-0.5	198/271/337	139	291	14	9	35%	9%	72	-0.7	187/267/334	148	273	15	7	35%	9%	69	-0.7
✕Dillon Paulson 2021 · A	24	40→36	47→50	48→30	48	201/284/341	140	287	14	4	33%	10%	78	-0.3	221/287/339	118	294	12	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	211/273/307	96	276	7	0	25%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Nick Yarnall 2019 · A	24	38	47→50	46→45	41	198/261/329	132	288	16	6	36%	8%	66	-1.1	200/272/336	136	318	15	7	39%	9%	72	-0.7	156/251/306	150	251	16	4	42%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/325	146	259	19	7	38%	8%	69	-0.9	196/276/333	137	263	16	6	30%	9%	73	-0.6	162/237/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Agustin Ruiz 2024 · AA	24	34→37	50	42→40	39	187/258/333	146	262	19	3	35%	7%	67	-1.1	192/262/309	117	267	12	6	31%	7%	62	-1.4	159/235/250	91	217	8	3	29%	6%	37	-1.7
✕Jose Brizuela 2017 · A	24	40→39	47→50	43→45	42	204/266/337	133	281	15	5	32%	7%	70	-0.9	209/261/319	110	293	12	5	31%	6%	63	-1.3	162/194/237	75	208	11	0	28%	4%	16	-1.0
✕Connor Panas 2017 · A	24	37→42	49→45	44→40	41	194/271/334	140	278	17	5	35%	8%	72	-0.7	207/271/333	126	276	14	5	29%	6%	71	-0.8	203/266/325	122	263	13	4	27%	5%	64	-0.7
✕Rixon Wingrove 2024 · AA	24	36→34	49→50	45→40	36	190/253/332	143	295	18	5	41%	6%	64	-1.3	206/272/352	146	285	17	5	32%	7%	76	-0.4	185/259/346	161	227	21	0	28%	8%	66	-0.5
✕Allan Cerda 2024 · AA	24	33→25	51→55	41→45	45	174/279/330	156	276	19	7	41%	11%	75	-0.5	187/266/327	140	306	16	8	41%	9%	68	-1.0	141/217/302	161	189	23	4	40%	8%	41	-0.6
✕Lance Ray 2013 · A	23	38→37	45	45	45	196/264/320	124	261	13	6	29%	8%	65	-1.2	201/265/317	116	278	10	6	30%	7%	65	-1.2	151/221/203	52	215	4	5	30%	8%	20	-1.0
✕Neil Medchill 2012 · A	25	36→28	47→45	45	38	186/254/317	131	298	16	7	42%	8%	61	-1.5	204/257/324	120	335	14	7	41%	6%	63	-1.4	197/244/310	112	325	13	5	41%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Tristan Gray 2019 · A	23	39→36	47→50	42→40	39	199/250/342	143	275	14	6	33%	6%	65	-1.2	205/271/347	142	266	15	4	28%	7%	74	-0.6	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Mark Contreras 2019 · A	24	39	42→50	46→55	38	193/254/300	107	288	9	11	35%	6%	57	-1.8	186/250/305	119	275	12	13	35%	6%	57	-1.8	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Kevin Rivers 2013 · A	24	41→43	45→50	45	43	202/273/326	124	287	12	6	32%	8%	70	-0.8	209/271/335	126	289	11	6	30%	7%	70	-0.8	205/266/333	128	279	10	4	29%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Cody Morissette 2024 · AA	24	35→31	46→45	44→55	40	187/242/313	126	243	15	5	30%	6%	55	-1.9	190/243/309	119	252	13	15	29%	6%	55	-2.0	184/241/305	121	240	14	19	29%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Cole Roederer 2024 · AAA	24	43→33	46→45	50	42	212/276/337	125	302	14	12	33%	7%	73	-0.6	192/270/301	109	289	10	11	34%	9%	63	-1.3	145/240/234	89	226	7	9	36%	10%	36	-2.1
✕Mike Peabody 2023 · A	24	38	44→45	47→50	38	189/265/301	112	291	12	12	37%	7%	62	-1.4	196/263/302	106	291	10	12	35%	6%	61	-1.5	171/236/270	98	250	11	12	34%	5%	41	-1.3
✕Murray Watts 2012 · A	24	34→24	48→50	45→30	42	180/255/311	130	268	17	3	38%	9%	60	-1.6	177/237/300	123	282	14	3	40%	7%	51	-2.3	150/203/292	142	218	18	0	40%	6%	34	-1.9

Tom Poole

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps