Nixon Chirinos — OGILVIE

Nixon ChirinosC Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 61 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .277 / .289

PA61

HR1

K%31

BB%8

BABIP283

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
Totals		$13M		$33M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	52	43	7	1	0	0	4	14	4	0	0	163	294	186	480	23	233	27	8	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	52	41	8	1	0	0	6	10	4	0	0	195	353	220	572	24	250	19	12	284	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	26	23	2	0	0	0	3	15	0	0	0	87	192	87	279		250	58	12	149	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	26	21	3	0	0	0	5	10	0	0	0	143	308	143	451		273	38	19	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	121	109	18	4	0	2	8	57	3	6	2	165	242	257	499	92	314	47	7	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	121	104	26	7	0	2	13	38	3	6	2	250	350	375	725	125	369	31	11	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	MIA	—	92	81	15	2	0	1	10	34	1	2	0	185	283	247	530	62	304	37	11	238	40	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
YTD	20	A	MIA	—	92	77	18	2	0	1	14	24	1	2	0	234	359	299	657	65	327	26	15	312	97	-0	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.4
ROS	20	A	MIA	0%	61	55	11	2	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	199	277	289	566	90	291	31	8	258	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		286	—	—	246	46	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	MIA	—	92	82	15	2	0	1	10	34	1	2	0	183	283	244	527	61	298	37	11	238	40	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
TOT	20	A	MIA	—	153	136	26	4	0	2	15	53	2	3	0	191	280	264	544	73	295	35	10	246	47	-9	+1	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	219	196	42	7	1	4	18	67	3	3	1	214	290	321	612	107	292	31	8	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	340	305	66	11	2	7	28	101	4	5	1	216	291	334	625	118	293	30	8	279	71	-11	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	421	378	82	14	2	9	35	123	5	6	1	217	292	336	628	119	294	29	8	284	76	-11	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.9
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	475	426	94	16	2	11	40	137	6	6	2	221	297	345	642	124	295	29	8	288	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	505	452	100	17	2	12	42	146	6	7	2	221	296	347	643	126	295	29	8	290	80	-11	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.3
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	520	465	102	17	2	12	44	150	6	7	2	219	295	342	637	123	295	29	8	292	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	520	465	102	17	2	12	44	150	6	7	2	219	295	342	637	123	295	29	8	292	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	520	464	101	17	2	12	45	151	6	7	2	218	295	341	636	123	294	29	9	291	80	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	520	464	101	17	2	12	45	152	6	6	2	218	295	341	636	123	294	29	9	289	79	-12	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2036	30	MLB	MIA	57%	511	456	99	16	2	12	44	151	6	6	1	217	294	340	634	123	292	30	9	286	77	-13	+1	-2	+9	+14	0.9
2037	31	MLB	MIA	60%	483	432	92	15	2	11	42	144	6	5	1	213	292	333	625	120	290	30	9	282	74	-14	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.6
2038	32	MLB	MIA	61%	451	404	85	14	2	9	39	136	5	4	1	210	288	322	610	111	286	30	9	276	70	-15	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.2
2039	33	MLB	MIA	62%	410	367	74	12	1	8	35	126	5	2	1	202	280	305	585	104	282	31	9	270	65	-16	+0	-4	+7	+12	-0.2
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	75	68	13	2	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	191	267	265	531	74	287	31	8	257	55	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	165	148	31	5	1	3	14	49	2	2	1	209	287	318	604	108	288	30	8	266	62	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	228	204	44	7	1	5	19	66	3	3	1	216	292	333	625	118	289	29	8	272	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	263	236	51	9	1	6	22	76	3	4	1	216	291	339	630	123	290	29	8	275	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	283	254	54	9	1	6	24	82	3	4	1	213	288	327	615	114	290	29	8	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	292	261	57	10	1	7	25	84	4	4	1	218	297	345	641	126	290	29	9	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	288	257	56	9	1	7	25	83	4	4	1	218	297	342	640	125	290	29	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	285	255	55	9	1	7	25	83	3	4	1	216	293	341	634	125	289	29	9	277	70	-10	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	278	249	53	9	1	6	24	81	3	3	1	213	290	329	619	116	289	29	9	276	69	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB	MIA	57%	292	262	55	9	1	6	25	86	3	3	1	210	286	321	607	111	287	29	9	273	67	-11	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2037	31	MLB	MIA	60%	288	258	54	9	1	6	25	86	3	3	1	209	287	322	608	112	285	30	9	269	64	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.0
2038	32	MLB	MIA	61%	276	247	51	8	1	6	24	83	3	2	1	206	285	320	605	113	281	30	9	264	60	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.2
2039	33	MLB	MIA	62%	256	229	46	7	1	5	22	79	3	2	0	201	280	306	585	105	277	31	9	258	55	-13	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3269	2929	620	102	12	71	280	961	38	39	11	212	289	327	616	116	288	29	9	272	66	-125	+3	-9	+58	+93	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	122	20	2	14	56	191	8	8	2	210	288	323	611	113	285	29	9	272	66	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	6155	5504	1178	197	24	134	521	1839	78	78	21	214	291	332	623	118	293	30	8	282	74	-182	+7	-15	+110	+174	9.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	125	21	3	14	55	194	8	8	2	215	291	334	625	119	295	30	8	282	74	-19	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	52	41	8	1	0	6	10	4	0	0	195	353	220	572	24	250	19	12	284	75	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	26	21	3	0	0	5	10	0	0	0	143	308	143	451		273	38	19	239	41	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	121	104	26	7	2	13	38	3	6	2	250	350	375	725	125	369	31	11	329	110	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,388	74	40	217	290	336	+61	+32	6.2	5.5
	/162	664	15	8	217	290	336	+11.9	+6.3	1.2	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nixon Chirinos (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	191/280/264	73	295	2	3	35%	10%	47	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→40	43→55	47→50	36	194/233/304	111	269	10	5	32%	4%	42	-2.3	197/238/344	147	275	17	6	34%	5%	56	-1.3	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→47	39→55	49→30	44	205/276/287	82	282	6	6	28%	7%	56	-1.3	210/273/295	85	266	7	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	43→45	49→40	40	193/254/304	111	268	10	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	201/260/303	102	309	9	3	36%	6%	54	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Geoandry Montilla 2016 · A	20	44	41→45	48→50	41	213/265/307	95	298	8	7	30%	7%	56	-1.3	201/269/302	101	296	8	8	32%	8%	58	-1.2	174/253/276	102	257	8	9	33%	8%	42	-0.7
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2011 · A	20	43	40→45	49→45	42	209/255/300	91	272	7	5	26%	6%	50	-1.7	218/253/304	86	275	8	5	23%	4%	50	-1.7	247/278/359	111	273	14	5	15%	4%	72	-0.1