Tanner Shears
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.6%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 41 | 0 | 50 | 223 | 77 | 39 | 3 | 26.1% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 1.45 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 7 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 10 | 14 | 0 | — | — | — | 15.43 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 57 | 266 | 68 | 59 | 4 | 25.7% | 22.3% | 1.4% | 3.18 | 4.51 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 0 | 200 | 939 | 240 | 208 | 14 | 25.7% | 22.3% | 1.4% | 3.18 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Shears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 23.3% | 13.4% | 122 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 89 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 84 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 83 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 82 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 82 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 82 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 82 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 81 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.