Luis Guevara (P, DSL Brewers 1) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Guevara P DSL Brewers 1

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	12	5	34	154	26	11	2	42%	2.8	11.5%	8.9%	2.6%	1.0%	5.56	3.79	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	12	5	34	154	26	11	2	42%	2.8	11.5%	8.9%	2.6%	1.0%	5.56	3.79	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	12	5	34	154	26	11	2	42%	2.8	16.9%	7.1%	9.7%	1.3%	5.56	3.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	0	15	67	15	9	1	0%	1.5	15.2%	16.8%	-1.6%	1.9%	2.93	4.99	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	0	15	67	15	9	1	0%	1.5	15.2%	16.8%	-1.6%	1.9%	2.93	4.99	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	10	0	15	67	15	9	1	0%	1.5	22.4%	13.4%	9.0%	1.5%	2.93	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	19	9	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	81	20	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		22	5	49	221	28	25	3	23%	2.2	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	1.2%	4.74	4.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	20	200	896	113	101	11	23%	2.2	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	1.2%	4.74	4.15	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Guevara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.5%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.56	22.1%	11.5%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	84
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	83
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	82
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	80
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	80
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	80
Edgar Sanchez R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	17.2%	11.0%	1.5%	.288	4.34	16.2%	3.0%	189	+0.45	2.53	257	80
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Adrián Martinez R 2017 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.8%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	4.25	17.3%	7.6%	92	-0.05	2.02	526	79
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	79
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	79
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	79
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	79
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	79
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	79