Samuel Sanchez

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	17	ROKDSL LAD Mega	4	4	6	7.50	4.27	20.7%	6.9%	—	K 20.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.12
2024	18	MIX2 levels	13	10	40	4.69	2.63	27.7%	4.2%	—	K 20.1% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.96
2025	19	ALAA	11	7	39	5.31	4.77	16.2%	5.8%	—	K 12.0% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	5	5	22	4.54	4.54	18.8%	7.5%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	4	4	18	4.40	4.33	20.5%	7.2%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAndrew Quezada (age 24) · Florencio Serrano (age 21) · Ryan Fernandez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%18.8%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	4	4	6	29	6	2	1	100%	1.5	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	3.4%	7.50	4.12	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	4	4	6	29	6	2	1	100%	1.5	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	3.4%	7.50	4.27	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	166	46	7	4	77%	3.1	20.1%	6.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.69	3.96	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	166	46	7	4	77%	3.1	20.1%	6.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.69	3.96	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	40	166	46	7	4	77%	3.1	27.7%	4.2%	23.5%	2.4%	4.69	2.63	—
2025	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	11	7	39	173	28	10	7	64%	3.5	12.0%	6.8%	5.2%	5.0%	5.31	5.69	—
2025	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	11	7	39	173	28	10	7	64%	3.5	12.0%	6.8%	5.2%	5.0%	5.31	5.69	—
2025	19	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	11	7	39	173	28	10	7	64%	3.5	16.2%	5.8%	10.4%	4.0%	5.31	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	5	5	22	93	17	7	3	100%	4.4	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	37	156	32	11	5	100%	5.3	20.5%	7.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	18	76	16	5	2	100%	4.5	20.5%	7.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	16	6	2	100%	4.5	20.5%	7.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	3.95	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	176	66	22	100%	5.1	20.5%	7.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		28	21	85	368	60	24	15	75%	3.0	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	4.1%	5.17	4.79	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	49	200	862	141	57	35	75%	3.0	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	4.1%	5.17	4.79	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	18.8%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.33	20.5%	13.2%	37	-0.21	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	83
Ryan Fernandez R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP-	4.44	19.2%	6.8%	3.8%	.357	3.37	20.8%	13.2%	53	-1.07	3.02	363	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	81
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	80
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	79
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	79
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	79
Mitchell Jordan R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	14.0%	6.2%	1.8%	.316	4.87	15.7%	7.4%	342	+1.20	3.67	380	79
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	19.8%	7.3%	1.18	4.45
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*