Luis Arestigueta

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A peak 0.9 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	16	11	60	4.62	3.50	21.5%	10.9%	—	K 15.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.49
2025	19	AATL	12	10	43	4.85	3.71	18.4%	12.2%	—	K 13.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.35
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	6	74	6.20	4.15	20.4%	13.6%	—	K 14.9% · BB 16.2% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	21	MLBATL	42	0	44	6.23	6.23	13.2%	18.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBATL	32	0	34	5.84	5.70	15.8%	16.0%	-0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBATL	50	0	53	5.52	5.38	17.4%	14.6%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control30Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMason McGwire (age 20) · Reynardo Cruz (age 20) · Jol Concepcion (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%13.2%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%-5.0%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	8	34	144	25	17	1	73%	3.1	11.8%	14.8%	-3.0%	1.2%	3.48	4.63	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	11	8	34	144	25	17	1	73%	3.1	17.4%	11.8%	5.6%	0.7%	3.48	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	15.0%	13.4%	1.5%	1.7%	4.62	4.49	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	15.0%	13.4%	1.5%	1.7%	4.62	4.49	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	1.5%	4.62	3.50	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	13.6%	14.4%	-0.9%	1.0%	4.85	4.35	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	13.6%	14.4%	-0.9%	1.0%	4.85	4.35	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	18.4%	12.2%	6.1%	1.0%	4.85	3.71	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	74	339	69	46	6	23%	2.8	14.9%	16.2%	-1.3%	2.3%	6.20	5.15	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	74	339	69	46	6	23%	2.8	14.9%	16.2%	-1.3%	2.3%	6.20	5.15	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	6	74	339	69	46	6	23%	2.8	20.4%	13.6%	6.8%	1.8%	6.20	4.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ATL	42	0	44	186	25	34	5	0%	1.0	13.2%	18.2%	-5.0%	2.8%	6.23	6.23	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	67	0	70	295	47	47	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	16.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.84	5.70	-0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	69	0	72	306	53	45	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.52	5.38	-0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	71	0	74	314	57	43	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.7%	5.29	5.18	-0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	72	0	75	318	60	42	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	13.2%	5.5%	2.7%	5.15	5.07	-0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	72	0	75	318	60	42	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.09	5.05	-0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	71	0	74	313	59	42	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	2.8%	5.09	5.09	-0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	68	0	72	304	57	41	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	2.9%	5.14	5.17	-0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	65	0	69	290	54	40	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.24	5.30	-0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	62	0	65	273	50	38	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	3.2%	5.38	5.48	-0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	32	0	34	144	23	23	4	0%	1.1	15.8%	16.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.84	5.70	-0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	53	224	39	33	6	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.52	5.38	-0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	59	0	62	262	48	36	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.7%	5.29	5.18	-0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	63	0	66	279	52	37	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	13.2%	5.5%	2.7%	5.15	5.07	-0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	66	0	69	291	55	38	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.09	5.05	-0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	66	0	69	291	55	39	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	2.8%	5.09	5.09	-0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	64	0	67	283	53	38	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	2.9%	5.14	5.17	-0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	62	0	65	274	51	37	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.7%	4.9%	3.0%	5.24	5.30	-0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	58	0	61	258	47	36	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	3.2%	5.38	5.48	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		520	0	546	2307	424	317	66	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.6%	2.9%	5.27	4.86	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	116	24	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.8%	4.6%	2.9%	5.27	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		65	35	211	954	135	141	16	54%	3.2	14.2%	14.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	5.04	4.72	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	33	200	906	128	134	16	54%	3.2	14.2%	14.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	5.04	4.72	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Arestigueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	13.2%	18.2%	2.8%	—	5.41	17.2%	2.4%	217	-0.82	—	—	—
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	88
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	85
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	85
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	84
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	83
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	82
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	82
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	82
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	80
Justin Militello R 2024 · 5.52 FIP	20	SW	5.52	9.6%	19.9%	1.3%	.376	5.17	15.9%	-3.1%	82	-0.35	4.92	114	80
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	80
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	80
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	79
Jorge Juan R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	20	SW	5.47	14.7%	24.8%	0.8%	.323	4.64	25.5%	14.0%	38	-0.83	3.48	238	79
Taylor Hawkins R 2016 · 5.38 FIP	22	SW	5.38	7.7%	19.6%	0.8%	.239	5.98	7.4%	-12.1%	43	+0.60	5.38	112	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	17.9%	14.2%	1.10	5.36
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*