Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 64 | 260 | 88 | 23 | 3 | 3% | 1.9 | 26.8% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 1.2% | 3.96 | 2.68 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 64 | 260 | 88 | 23 | 3 | 3% | 1.9 | 33.8% | 8.8% | 25.0% | 1.2% | 3.96 | 2.03 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 5 | 29 | 120 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 28% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 2.15 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 5 | 29 | 120 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 28% | 1.6 | 29.2% | 7.5% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 2.15 | 1.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 54 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 78 | 333 | 84 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 2.89 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 56 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 0 | 195 | 822 | 206 | 80 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 212 | 82 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 6 | 119 | 492 | 124 | 45 | 4 | 8% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 0.8% | 3.26 | 2.58 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 10 | 200 | 829 | 210 | 77 | 7 | 8% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 0.8% | 3.26 | 2.58 | +6.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wen-Hui Pan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.17 | 25.0% | 15.2% | 162 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 92 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.88 | 26.5% | 15.2% | 118 | +0.20 | 2.90 | 176 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 89 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.98 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.40 | 3.21 | 239 | 88 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 88 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 88 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 88 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .319 | 2.79 | 31.3% | 20.1% | 109 | -0.66 | 1.95 | 232 | 88 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.36 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .316 | 4.77 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.41 | 3.36 | 137 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 88 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 88 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 88 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 88 |
| Zach Franklin R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 88 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 88 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 87 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.34 | 334 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 53 | 24.9% | 9.9% | 1.12 | 4.22 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |