Rafael Suero — OGILVIE

Rafael Suero P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%20.3%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	13	0	21	90	17	17	1	0%	1.6	12.8%	23.6%	-10.8%	1.8%	1.29	6.01	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	13	0	21	90	17	17	1	0%	1.6	18.9%	18.9%	0.0%	1.1%	1.29	4.53	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	16	0	21	111	21	19	0	0%	1.3	12.9%	21.4%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.71	4.72	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	16	0	21	111	21	19	0	0%	1.3	12.9%	21.4%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.71	4.72	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	16	0	21	111	21	19	0	0%	1.3	18.9%	17.1%	1.8%	0.0%	7.71	3.81	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	17	1	32	154	27	23	1	6%	1.9	11.9%	18.7%	-6.7%	1.0%	6.68	5.00	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	17	1	32	154	27	23	1	6%	1.9	11.9%	18.7%	-6.7%	1.0%	6.68	5.00	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	17	1	32	154	27	23	1	6%	1.9	17.5%	14.9%	2.6%	0.6%	6.68	3.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	17	0	18	76	15	12	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	15.9%	4.4%	2.9%	5.39	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	29	0	31	129	28	18	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.09	4.97	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	14	0	15	63	14	9	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.09	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	9	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.09	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	120	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	2.9%	5.09	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		46	1	74	355	44	74	3	2%	1.6	12.5%	20.8%	-8.3%	0.9%	5.45	5.17	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	3	200	955	119	198	9	2%	1.6	12.5%	20.8%	-8.3%	0.9%	5.45	5.17	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Suero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	20.3%	15.9%	2.9%	—	4.97	21.6%	8.0%	31	-0.42	—	—	—
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	91
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	90
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	90
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	89
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	89
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	89
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	88
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	87
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	85
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	85