Abelardo Medrano
P
DSL Tigers 1
+0.1
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.7%
IP13
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 87 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 5.5% | 35.9% | 1.2% | 11.15 | 7.86 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | DET | 13 | — | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 15 | 87 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 5.5% | 35.9% | 1.2% | 11.15 | 7.86 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 0 | 200 | 1135 | 65 | 404 | 13 | 5.5% | 35.9% | 1.2% | 11.15 | 7.86 | -5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abelardo Medrano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 90 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.15 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.17 | 3.98 | 198 | 89 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 89 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.83 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.48 | 2.50 | 103 | 88 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 88 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.20 | 104 | 88 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 88 |
| Max Gieg R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.14 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .317 | 4.64 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.50 | 3.95 | 108 | 87 |
| Mason Fox R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 87 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 87 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 87 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.49 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 101 | 87 |
| Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 87 |
| Justin Meis R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.02 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.09 | 3.64 | 341 | 87 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.71 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.77 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.06 | 3.71 | 181 | 87 |
| Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.99 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 135 | 86 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 86 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.14 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .259 | 4.98 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.84 | 3.88 | 782 | 86 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 86 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.76 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.89 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.13 | 4.76 | 134 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2029 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2030 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2031 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2032 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $0.0M | $0.0M | +$0.0M | ||