Abelardo Medrano
P
DSL Tigers 2
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%22.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP9
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 87 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 5.5% | 35.9% | -30.4% | 1.2% | 11.15 | 7.84 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 87 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 8.0% | 28.7% | -20.7% | 4.6% | 11.15 | 10.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 11 | 1 | 17 | 79 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 9% | 1.5 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.94 | 5.60 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | DET | — | — | 26 | 117 | 29 | 14 | 3 | — | — | 24.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 5.46 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | DET | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 26 | 1 | 32 | 166 | 18 | 44 | 4 | 4% | 1.2 | 11.1% | 26.4% | -15.3% | 2.3% | 8.44 | 6.77 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 6 | 200 | 1038 | 115 | 273 | 24 | 4% | 1.2 | 11.1% | 26.4% | -15.3% | 2.3% | 8.44 | 6.77 | -3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abelardo Medrano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 12.9% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 88 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.37 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.75 | 3.30 | 104 | 87 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 87 |
| Mason Fox R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 85 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.62 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .286 | 5.15 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.53 | 3.62 | 181 | 85 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 85 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.58 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | .260 | 3.26 | 25.7% | 12.2% | 25 | -1.32 | 3.26 | 126 | 85 |
| Michael Gomez R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 84 |
| Enmanuel Marcano R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.32 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 138 | 84 |
| Ty Tice R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.48 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.81 | 3.24 | 288 | 84 |
| Justin Meis R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 84 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 84 |
| Nic Enright R 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 84 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.25 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 187 | 84 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 84 |
| Troy Bacon R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.92 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .222 | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 102 | +0.27 | 3.43 | 203 | 84 |
| Heath Holder R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 83 |
| Max Gieg R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.43 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.8% | .317 | 4.70 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.73 | 4.10 | 146 | 83 |