Abelardo Medrano

Abelardo Medrano P DSL Tigers 2

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 164156vR 148

ERA6.88

FIP6.88

K%18.8%

BB%26.5%

K-BB%-7.7%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	0	15	87	7	25	4	0%	1.0	5.5%	35.9%	-30.4%	2.0%	11.15	8.29	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	0	15	87	7	25	4	0%	1.0	5.5%	35.9%	-30.4%	2.0%	11.15	8.29	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	15	0	15	87	7	25	4	0%	1.0	8.0%	28.7%	-20.7%	4.6%	11.15	10.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	18	1	25	121	26	19	3	6%	1.4	14.6%	19.6%	-5.0%	3.5%	7.30	6.26	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	18	1	25	121	26	19	3	6%	1.4	14.6%	19.6%	-5.0%	3.5%	7.30	6.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	18	1	25	121	26	19	3	6%	1.4	21.5%	15.7%	5.8%	2.5%	7.30	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	24	0	25	107	21	23	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	21.6%	-1.7%	2.9%	6.33	6.14	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	11	0	12	51	10	11	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	21.6%	-1.7%	2.8%	6.26	6.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	53	11	11	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	21.6%	-1.7%	2.8%	6.26	5.69	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	176	16	0%	1.1	20.0%	21.6%	-1.7%	2.8%	6.26	5.69	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		33	1	40	208	22	55	6	3%	1.2	10.8%	26.4%	-15.7%	2.9%	8.78	7.11	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	5	200	1040	112	275	30	3%	1.2	10.8%	26.4%	-15.7%	2.9%	8.78	7.11	-3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abelardo Medrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.88	18.8%	26.5%	3.0%	—	6.14	20.0%	-1.7%	25	-0.74	—	—	—
Samuel Fabian R 2023 · 6.61 FIP	20	SU	6.61	16.8%	27.4%	2.7%	.352	4.33	17.2%	4.8%	64	-2.28	4.21	120	87
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	85
Michell Miliano R 2019 · 7.22 FIP	19	SU	7.22	22.2%	30.4%	3.9%	.279	5.47	24.3%	-0.4%	76	-1.75	4.42	205	85
Pedro Peralta R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	17	SU	6.77	15.3%	22.9%	3.8%	.300	6.07	14.3%	-7.4%	106	-0.70	5.13	121	85
Rael Santos R 2022 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	17.1%	32.7%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	84
Adrian Rodriguez R 2021 · 6.92 FIP	20	SU	6.92	23.1%	34.0%	2.7%	.368	5.46	23.1%	-1.6%	93	-1.46	2.43	148	84
Brendan Hardy R 2021 · 6.99 FIP	21	SU	6.99	15.9%	33.1%	1.9%	.324	3.67	22.9%	7.9%	83	-3.32	2.54	137	84
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	83
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	83
Jose G. Gonzalez R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	20	SU	5.86	13.8%	18.3%	2.9%	.357	4.91	14.6%	-1.0%	108	-0.95	3.63	165	83
Juan Arnaud R 2023 · 6.40 FIP	20	SU	6.40	16.1%	24.2%	2.9%	.196	4.49	21.1%	4.5%	132	-1.91	3.43	184	82
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	82
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	82
Andrew Baker R 2021 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	22.3%	37.8%	2.5%	.158	4.66	24.7%	6.7%	135	-2.70	3.44	256	81
Edgar Isea R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	20	SU	6.17	24.2%	27.6%	2.9%	.310	4.90	20.6%	-4.4%	76	-1.27	4.50	162	81
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	81
Dallas Woolfolk R 2018 · 7.66 FIP	21	SU	7.66	16.8%	24.7%	5.2%	.262	6.62	12.9%	-9.0%	34	-1.04	5.12	100	81
Luis A. Reyes R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	19	SU	6.35	14.9%	30.5%	1.2%	.302	6.72	14.5%	-14.4%	71	+0.37	4.89	123	80
Ronaldo Lopez R 2018 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.2%	23.4%	1.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	123	80
Jesse Stallings R 2016 · 6.02 FIP	21	SU	6.02	13.2%	15.0%	3.9%	.296	4.10	11.6%	5.0%	128	-1.92	3.48	151	80