Luis A. Reyes — OGILVIE

Luis A. Reyes P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155147vR 138

ERA6.40

FIP6.40

K%17.6%

BB%22.5%

K-BB%-4.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	3	28	138	36	16	3	23%	2.2	17.7%	14.5%	3.2%	2.6%	7.07	4.89	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	13	3	28	138	36	16	3	23%	2.2	26.1%	11.6%	14.5%	2.2%	7.07	3.64	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	16	0	24	119	26	29	1	0%	1.5	14.9%	30.5%	-15.6%	1.2%	6.38	6.35	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	16	0	24	119	26	29	1	0%	1.5	14.9%	30.5%	-15.6%	1.2%	6.38	6.35	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	16	0	24	119	26	29	1	0%	1.5	21.8%	24.4%	-2.5%	0.8%	6.38	5.10	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	134	28	30	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	29.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	5.93	6.88	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	134	28	30	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	29.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	5.93	6.88	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	27	134	28	30	2	0%	1.5	20.9%	22.4%	-1.5%	1.5%	5.93	5.30	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	31	162	31	31	1	0%	1.3	13.6%	22.9%	-9.3%	1.0%	8.33	5.40	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	31	162	31	31	1	0%	1.3	13.6%	22.9%	-9.3%	1.0%	8.33	5.40	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	31	162	31	31	1	0%	1.3	19.1%	19.1%	0.0%	0.6%	8.33	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	2	21	128	31	42	3	11%	1.1	16.1%	42.3%	-26.2%	4.2%	13.08	9.43	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	2	21	128	31	42	3	11%	1.1	16.1%	42.3%	-26.2%	4.2%	13.08	9.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CHC	7	0	8	36	11	9	0	0%	1.1	30.6%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	3.52	3.69	—
2026	22	A RAW	CHC	12	2	14	92	20	33	3	17%	1.1	21.7%	35.9%	-14.1%	3.3%	18.44	7.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	28	0	29	124	24	23	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.91	5.73	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	13	0	14	59	11	11	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.91	5.73	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	12	11	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.91	5.35	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	153	28	0%	1.1	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.91	5.35	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		91	5	132	681	105	187	15	5%	1.5	15.4%	27.4%	-12.1%	2.2%	7.98	6.51	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	8	200	1032	159	283	23	5%	1.5	15.4%	27.4%	-12.1%	2.2%	7.98	6.51	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis A. Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.40	17.6%	22.5%	2.8%	—	5.73	19.4%	0.8%	29	-0.67	—	—	—
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	89
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	87
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	87
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	86
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	85
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	85
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	85
Jace Beck R 2022 · 6.24 FIP	22	SU	6.24	19.2%	23.6%	3.2%	.205	4.33	27.6%	8.3%	76	-1.91	4.03	211	84
Madison Jeffrey R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SU	5.47	19.9%	25.3%	1.5%	.252	5.08	17.6%	-9.7%	107	-0.39	4.65	168	84
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	84
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	83
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	481	82
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	82
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	82
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	82
Salvador Justo R 2017 · 5.57 FIP	22	SU	5.57	12.8%	17.3%	2.5%	.328	5.22	15.7%	4.6%	107	-0.35	4.32	218	82
Yoniel Ramirez R 2023 · 6.16 FIP	22	SU	6.16	17.4%	23.2%	2.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	144	82
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	82