Donny Troconis

P Stockton Ports

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	AOAK	11	9	51	1.24	2.57	19.9%	8.7%	—	K 14.7% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.15
2026	20	AOAK	23	16	87	6.21	4.89	20.5%	12.6%	—	K 15.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.99
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	11	11	61	5.90	5.90	13.9%	15.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	7	7	40	5.52	5.41	16.3%	13.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	11	11	62	5.25	5.12	17.7%	12.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 22) · Danny Flatt (age 20) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%13.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	8	44	187	44	14	6	67%	3.7	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	4.3%	4.09	5.31	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	12	8	44	187	44	14	6	67%	3.7	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.09	3.83	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	14.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.9%	6.80	5.43	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	14.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.9%	6.80	5.43	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	21.2%	9.0%	12.3%	2.4%	6.80	3.86	—
2025	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	14.7%	10.2%	4.5%	0.0%	1.24	3.15	—
2025	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	14.7%	10.2%	4.5%	0.0%	1.24	3.15	—
2025	19	A RAW	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	0.0%	1.24	2.57	—
2026	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	15.2%	14.9%	0.3%	4.2%	6.21	5.99	—
2026	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	15.2%	14.9%	0.3%	4.2%	6.21	5.99	—
2026	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	3.2%	6.21	4.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	11	11	61	258	36	39	8	100%	5.5	13.9%	15.0%	-1.1%	3.1%	5.90	5.90	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	82	347	57	46	10	100%	5.5	16.3%	13.4%	3.0%	3.0%	5.56	5.45	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	85	360	64	44	11	100%	5.3	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.16	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	87	369	68	43	11	100%	5.5	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.10	5.00	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	71	42	11	100%	5.9	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	2.9%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	72	42	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.2%	8.0%	2.9%	4.92	4.89	+0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	87	368	70	41	11	100%	5.8	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	85	357	68	41	11	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.4%	7.6%	3.1%	4.97	5.01	-0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	81	341	64	40	11	100%	6.2	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.2%	5.07	5.14	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	76	321	65	36	11	100%	5.8	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.4%	5.06	5.05	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	28	23	5	100%	5.7	16.3%	13.4%	3.0%	2.9%	5.52	5.41	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	62	262	46	32	8	100%	5.6	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	2.9%	5.25	5.12	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	72	304	56	35	9	100%	5.5	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.06	4.96	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	62	37	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	2.9%	4.94	4.87	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	65	38	10	100%	5.8	19.1%	11.2%	8.0%	2.9%	4.88	4.85	+0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	65	38	10	100%	5.8	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	79	334	63	38	10	100%	6.1	19.0%	11.4%	7.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.97	-0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	77	325	61	38	10	100%	5.9	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.03	5.10	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	72	304	62	34	10	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.3%	5.01	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	110	643	2715	510	313	81	100%	5.8	18.8%	11.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.02	4.61	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	159	97	25	100%	5.8	18.8%	11.5%	7.3%	3.0%	5.02	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		58	41	224	1000	151	121	33	71%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	2.9%	3.3%	4.78	5.19	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	893	135	108	30	71%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	2.9%	3.3%	4.78	5.19	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Donny Troconis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	13.9%	15.0%	3.1%	—	5.20	17.5%	5.2%	255	-0.70	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	89
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	88
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	85
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	84
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	84
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	83
Rafael Martinez R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	21	SP-	5.68	15.3%	14.3%	3.8%	.366	2.50	19.4%	11.2%	18	-3.18	2.50	104	83
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	82
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	82	18.3%	11.9%	1.18	5.15
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92