Ethan O'Donnell

CF Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 25 L/R 6'0" / 192 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2392ETA2030MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422A+CIN415.269/.359/.416103170—.220/.296/.320
202523AACIN503.236/.332/.32572063—.230/.295/.306
202624AAA/AAMIA415.229/.351/.34293168—.205/.300/.293
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBMIA21.200/.280/.2820166-0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB26MLBMIA70.203/.282/.29213700.0
2029PROJ36% MLB27MLBMIA101.204/.283/.2952471-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%84
Speed72
Max EV53
Chase%37
K%24
Whiff%21
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%
CompsAdam Engel (age 26) · Michael Siani (age 25) · Travis Swaggerty (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .280 / .282
PA21
HR0
K%29
BB%10
BABIP285
ISO53
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +1.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$0.2M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 ADaytona Tortugas — 9480 28424 10184 30 3504476001.047 250414 1911 456 119 — — — — — —
202321 ROKACL Reds — 1715 3000 250 10 200294200494 300 2912 242 -7 — — — — — —
202422 A+Dayton Dragons — 415361 9711610 4010811 315 269359416775 147357 2610 347 70 — — — — — —
202523 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 503424 1001327 541297 203 236332325657 90314 2611 294 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 238195 44603 36654 162 226357303660 77318 2715 310 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 177150 35606 21424 152 233343393736 160282 2412 331 74 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 9483 23323 7244 30 277362470832 193345 267 344 119 — — — — — —
202321 ROK MLEACL Reds — 1716 2000 170 10 125176125301 241 416 158 -7 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 415372 82956 2913711 315 220296320616 99323 337 271 70 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 503444 1021226 341567 203 230295306601 77310 317 262 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 238205 41502 26784 162 200302254556 54302 3311 261 63 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 177156 33605 15514 152 212297346643 135267 298 277 74 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 11199 25323 8314 40 253333414747 162338 287 316 100 — — — — — —
202321 A RAW2 teams — 11195 31424 12234 40 326423537960 211397 2111 423 100 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 415372 82956 2913711 315 220296320616 99330 337 271 70 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 415361 9711610 4010811 315 269359416775 147357 2610 347 70 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 503444 1021226 341567 203 230295306601 77331 317 262 63 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 503424 1001327 541297 203 236332325657 90314 2611 294 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE2 teams — 415362 741107 401298 314 204298293590 88293 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202624 AAA RAW2 teams — 415345 791209 571078 314 229351342693 113302 2614 319 67 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 11198 25323 8314 40 255333418752 163329 287 316 100 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 415372 82956 2913711 315 220296320616 99323 337 271 70 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 503457 1021226 341567 203 223295298592 74310 317 262 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE2 teams — 415364 741107 401298 314 203298291589 88287 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 415372 82956 2913711 315 220296320616 99323 337 271 70 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 503457 1021226 341567 203 223295298592 74310 317 262 63 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLE2 teams — 415364 741107 401298 314 203298291589 88287 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIA 10% 380339 701016 321186 162 206285293578 87293 318 266 66 -15 +2 +1 +1 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIA 10% 2119 4100 260 10 200280282562 82285 2910 259 66 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIA 28% 253226 47714 21774 102 209288304592 95293 308 271 70 -9 +1 +1 +1 +5 -0.1
202927 MLB MLEMIA 36% 281251 53815 24854 112 210289307596 97293 309 273 71 -10 +1 +1 +1 +6 -0.0
203028 MLB MLEMIA 41% 296265 56915 25894 112 210288308596 97292 308 273 71 -10 +1 +0 +1 +6 -0.1
203129 MLB MLEMIA 43% 296265 56915 25894 91 210287307594 97291 308 272 70 -11 +1 -0 +1 +6 -0.2
203230 MLB MLEMIA 44% 294264 56915 24884 71 209285305590 96289 308 270 69 -11 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.4
202826 MLB CTXMIA 28% 7063 13201 6211 30 203282292575 89285 309 264 70 -3 +1 +0 +0 +2 0.0
202927 MLB CTXMIA 36% 10191 19302 8311 41 204283295578 91284 318 265 71 -4 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.0
203028 MLB CTXMIA 41% 121108 22302 10362 41 204283295578 91283 308 265 71 -4 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.1
203129 MLB CTXMIA 43% 127113 22302 11382 41 204282294576 91282 309 265 70 -5 +0 -0 +0 +3 -0.1
203230 MLB CTXMIA 44% 129115 23302 11392 31 203280292572 90281 309 263 69 -5 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 548490 991409 461658 184 202281286567 84281 308 264 69 -20 +2 -0 +2 +12 -0.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 11817011 551969 215 203282289571 86282 308 264 69 -23 +2 -0 +2 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 30742736 590831549 24794653 14321 216293311604 95308 318 271 69 -59 +8 +1 +6 +35 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 12518310 5220011 304 216293309602 93308 318 271 69 -24 +3 +0 +2 +14 -0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 238 PAwOBA .305 → .261 (−44)K% 27.3% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.31%÷1.000×1.200——32.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.13%÷1.000×0.690—×1.04810.94%
HBP% /PA1.68%—×0.940—×1.0481.66%
Singles /BIP26.92%÷1.000×0.930×0.997×1.04826.15%
Doubles /BIP4.62%÷1.000×0.830×0.997×1.0484.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.997×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP2.31%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0481.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .305 → .261; ISO .077 → .061; BABIP .318 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 177 PAwOBA .324 → .277 (−48)K% 23.7% → 28.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.73%÷1.000×1.220——28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.86%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0128.16%
HBP% /PA2.26%—×0.840—×1.0121.92%
Singles /BIP21.30%÷1.000×0.920×1.034×1.01220.50%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷1.000×0.910×1.034×1.0125.29%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880×1.034×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0124.50%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .324 → .277; ISO .160 → .135; BABIP .282 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 503 PAwOBA .291 → .262 (−28)K% 25.6% → 31.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.65%÷1.010×1.220——30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.54%÷1.087×0.680—×1.0276.77%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.840—×1.0271.20%
Singles /BIP26.44%÷0.963×0.920×1.030×1.02726.70%
Doubles /BIP4.41%÷1.092×0.910×1.030×1.0273.88%
Triples /BIP0.68%÷1.001×0.880×1.030×1.0270.63%
Home runs /BIP2.37%÷1.021×0.800—×1.0271.91%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .291 → .262; ISO .090 → .079; BABIP .314 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 415 PAwOBA .338 → .271 (−67)K% 26.0% → 32.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.02%÷1.006×1.270——32.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.40%÷0.976×0.710—×1.0126.92%
HBP% /PA2.65%—×0.790—×1.0122.12%
Singles /BIP27.67%÷1.023×0.920×1.022×1.01225.73%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷0.941×0.810×1.022×1.0123.87%
Triples /BIP2.37%÷1.030×0.850×1.022×1.0122.02%
Home runs /BIP3.95%÷1.285×0.800—×1.0122.49%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .338 → .271; ISO .147 → .103; BABIP .357 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 94 PAwOBA .444 → .344 (−101)K% 19.1% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷1.006×1.360——25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.64%÷1.006×0.690—×1.0157.41%
HBP% /PA4.26%—×0.780—×1.0153.37%
Singles /BIP29.03%÷1.032×0.920×0.967×1.01525.39%
Doubles /BIP6.45%÷1.100×0.830×0.967×1.0154.78%
Triples /BIP3.23%÷1.083×0.910×0.967×1.0152.66%
Home runs /BIP6.45%÷1.060×0.800—×1.0154.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .444 → .344; ISO .250 → .185; BABIP .414 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 17 PAwOBA .236 → .158 (−79)K% 29.4% → 41.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.41%÷1.027×1.440——41.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.040×0.620—×0.9856.91%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.004×0.820—×0.98524.13%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.038×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.059×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .236 → .158; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .300 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).