TJayy Walton
OF Jersey Shore BlueClaws| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | APHI | 145 | .200/.333/.333 | 3 | 7 | 40 | — | .144/.257/.232 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKPHI | 184 | .224/.317/.286 | 0 | 15 | 25 | — | .168/.241/.222 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/ROKPHI | 215 | .244/.393/.337 | 3 | 10 | 59 | — | .201/.308/.288 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBPHI | 1 | .192/.290/.280 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBPHI | 56 | .198/.295/.298 | 1 | 1 | 70 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 38
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 17 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 385 | 529 | 692 | 1.222 | 308 | 714 | 35 | 18 | 519 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 120 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 200 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 133 | 292 | 32 | 13 | 309 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 142 | 125 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 200 | 296 | 256 | 552 | 56 | 325 | 34 | 11 | 261 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 42 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 306 | 390 | 389 | 779 | 83 | 500 | 36 | 12 | 346 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 91 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 389 | 324 | 713 | 68 | 333 | 22 | 18 | 333 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 88 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 238 | 455 | 365 | 820 | 127 | 317 | 23 | 27 | 388 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 36 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 250 | 314 | 564 | 86 | 364 | 36 | 3 | 251 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 353 | 429 | 782 | 214 | 551 | 53 | 12 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 125 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 144 | 257 | 232 | 489 | 88 | 263 | 44 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 142 | 129 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 155 | 232 | 202 | 434 | 47 | 297 | 43 | 8 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 42 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 211 | 268 | 289 | 558 | 79 | 389 | 52 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 91 | 80 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 300 | 275 | 575 | 63 | 279 | 29 | 11 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 88 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 364 | 314 | 678 | 114 | 289 | 31 | 19 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 257 | 452 | 86 | 285 | 53 | 3 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 353 | 429 | 782 | 214 | 600 | 53 | 12 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Phillies | — | 17 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 385 | 529 | 692 | 1.222 | 308 | 714 | 35 | 18 | 519 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 125 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 144 | 257 | 232 | 489 | 88 | 267 | 44 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 120 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 200 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 133 | 292 | 32 | 13 | 309 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 167 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 162 | 235 | 204 | 439 | 42 | 318 | 45 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 161 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 63 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 224 | 317 | 286 | 603 | 62 | 364 | 34 | 11 | 281 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 215 | 186 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 194 | 299 | 274 | 573 | 81 | 295 | 33 | 13 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 215 | 172 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 53 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 244 | 393 | 337 | 730 | 93 | 333 | 25 | 19 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 353 | 429 | 782 | 214 | 551 | 53 | 12 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 125 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 144 | 257 | 232 | 489 | 88 | 263 | 44 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 166 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 163 | 235 | 205 | 440 | 42 | 318 | 45 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 215 | 185 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 195 | 299 | 276 | 575 | 81 | 284 | 33 | 13 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 145 | 125 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 144 | 257 | 232 | 489 | 88 | 263 | 44 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 166 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 83 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 163 | 235 | 205 | 440 | 42 | 318 | 45 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 215 | 185 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 72 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 195 | 299 | 276 | 575 | 81 | 284 | 33 | 13 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 325 | 283 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 87 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 192 | 289 | 278 | 567 | 86 | 259 | 27 | 11 | 264 | 65 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | PHI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 290 | 280 | 570 | 88 | 259 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | PHI | 35% | 163 | 142 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 294 | 295 | 589 | 97 | 262 | 26 | 11 | 272 | 70 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | PHI | 35% | 56 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 295 | 298 | 593 | 100 | 262 | 27 | 11 | 274 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 56 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 304 | 306 | 610 | 102 | 273 | 27 | 11 | 274 | 52 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 116 | 23 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 174 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 204 | 305 | 308 | 612 | 104 | 272 | 27 | 11 | 274 | 52 | -23 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 849 | 743 | 133 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 89 | 305 | 12 | 39 | 18 | 179 | 277 | 257 | 534 | 78 | 287 | 36 | 10 | 245 | 52 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 102 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 234 | 9 | 30 | 14 | 179 | 277 | 258 | 535 | 79 | 288 | 36 | 10 | 245 | 52 | -25 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 91 PAwOBA .329 → .253 (−76)K% 22.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 10.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 25.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .253; ISO .068 → .058; BABIP .333 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AClearwater Threshers · 88 PAwOBA .380 → .303 (−78)K% 22.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 19.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .303; ISO .127 → .105; BABIP .317 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 36 PAwOBA .244 → .143 (−101)K% 36.1% → 52.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 52.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 1.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 22.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .244 → .143; ISO .086 → .046; BABIP .364 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 142 PAwOBA .255 → .201 (−54)K% 33.8% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.80% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 23.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 2.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .255 → .201; ISO .056 → .047; BABIP .325 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 42 PAwOBA .346 → .220 (−125)K% 35.7% → 51.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.928 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 34.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .220; ISO .083 → .044; BABIP .500 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 145 PAwOBA .304 → .228 (−76)K% 31.7% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.72% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.045 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.46% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.045 | 8.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .304 → .228; ISO .133 → .093; BABIP .292 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 17 PAwOBA .507 → .319 (−187)K% 35.3% → 51.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.005 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 11.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 20.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.938 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 11.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .507 → .319; ISO .308 → .186; BABIP .714 → .551. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).