Matt Shaw

RF Chicago Cubs

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 0.942 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AATennessee Smo…	371	.279/.379/.468	14	25	106	—	.252/.332/.431
2025	23	MLBCHC	437	.226/.298/.394	13	17	93	1.0
2026	24	MLBCHC	202	.237/.330/.410	5	4	103	0.3
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	350	.238/.316/.398	10	18	100	0.8
2028PROJ92% MLB	26	MLBCHC	425	.238/.316/.398	12	21	100	0.9
2029PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBCHC	423	.237/.315/.395	12	20	99	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.942First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed90

xwOBA45

Barrel%33

Bat Spd19

Form.240/.333/.406 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .236/.312/.396

CompsDesmond Jennings (age 26) · Royce Lewis (age 24) · Anthony Volpe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 105100vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .316 / .398

PA350

HR10

SB18

K%21

BB%9

BABIP277

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 54 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT54

Whiff%

906.3%

xAVG

300.235

POWER56

Barrel%

336.0

Avg EV

1085.5

Bat Spd

1968.0

EYE46

Chase%

9023.0%

SPEED58

Sprint

9029.0

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▲▲15% over 55 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%11%▲▲16% over 55 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.166·.186 over 43 AB (60d) · proj .160

HR/BB3.8%·2.8% over 36 BBE (60d) · proj 4.2%

BABIP.271·.229 over 35 BIP (60d) · proj .273

SLASH.240/.333/.406▲proj .236/.312/.396

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 502 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

144

358

—

wRC+

137

◀◀L

wOBA

371

287

◀◀L

ISO

235

144

◀◀L

BABIP

305

259

◀◀L

19.4%

21.8%

◀L

BB%

8.3%

8.4%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$21M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	70	65	19	4	1	3	3	12	1	6	1	292	333	523	856	231	314	17	4	368	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	89	84	33	4	3	4	4	12	1	7	1	393	427	655	1.082	262	426	13	4	469	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	152	131	39	8	1	7	17	30	4	6	3	298	395	534	929	237	340	20	11	408	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	371	312	87	11	3	14	45	65	6	25	8	279	379	468	847	189	304	18	12	370	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	394	692	168	262	22	9	306	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.0
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	110	91	26	5	1	6	17	11	2	5	0	286	409	560	970	275	270	10	15	423	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	202	173	41	9	3	5	21	35	3	4	2	237	330	410	740	173	267	17	10	324	103	+1	+0	+1	-3	+4	0.3
2026	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	36	33	10	2	0	0	3	9	0	2	0	303	361	364	725	61	417	25	8	331	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	639	566	130	30	6	18	59	129	5	21	7	230	308	399	707	170	264	20	9	312	97	-2	+1	+1	-1	+14	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	70	66	18	4	1	2	2	15	1	6	1	273	304	455	759	182	313	21	3	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	89	86	28	3	2	3	2	16	1	7	1	326	348	512	860	186	366	18	2	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	152	135	35	7	1	5	13	36	4	6	3	259	342	437	779	178	316	24	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	371	325	82	10	3	14	33	81	6	25	8	252	332	431	763	178	274	22	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	437	393	89	20	3	14	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	399	697	173	262	22	9	305	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.0
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	110	96	24	4	1	4	12	13	2	5	0	250	345	438	783	188	267	12	11	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	202	173	41	9	3	5	21	35	3	4	2	237	330	410	740	173	267	17	10	320	103	+1	+0	+1	-3	+4	0.3
2026	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	36	34	9	2	0	0	2	11	0	2	0	265	306	324	629	59	392	31	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	159	152	46	7	3	5	4	30	2	13	2	303	329	487	816	184	347	19	3	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	159	149	52	8	4	7	7	24	2	13	2	349	386	597	983	248	378	15	4	425	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	460	116	17	4	18	46	117	10	31	11	252	333	424	757	172	295	22	9	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	523	443	126	19	4	21	62	95	10	31	11	284	384	488	871	203	314	18	12	381	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	489	114	25	4	18	50	107	4	22	5	233	309	411	720	178	261	20	9	315	99	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.7
2025	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	547	484	115	26	4	19	55	105	4	22	5	238	320	426	746	188	264	19	10	330	99	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.7
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	238	207	49	10	3	5	23	46	3	6	2	237	322	386	708	150	278	19	10	314	99	-0	+0	+1	-3	+5	0.3
2026	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	238	206	51	11	3	5	24	44	3	6	2	248	335	403	738	155	289	18	10	325	99	-0	+0	+1	-3	+5	0.3
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	159	152	46	7	3	5	4	30	2	13	2	303	329	487	816	184	343	19	3	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	462	116	17	4	18	46	117	10	31	11	251	333	422	755	171	286	22	9	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	488	114	25	4	18	50	107	4	22	5	234	309	412	721	178	263	20	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	238	210	49	10	3	5	23	46	3	6	2	233	322	381	703	148	286	19	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	462	116	17	4	18	46	117	10	31	11	251	333	422	755	171	286	22	9	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	488	114	25	4	18	50	107	4	22	5	234	309	412	721	178	263	20	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	238	210	49	10	3	5	23	46	3	6	2	233	322	381	703	148	286	19	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	449	401	95	19	3	13	41	92	4	22	4	236	314	396	711	160	273	20	9	316	100	+0	+3	+2	-5	+10	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	350	312	75	15	3	10	32	72	3	18	3	238	316	398	714	160	277	21	9	318	100	+0	+2	+2	-4	+8	0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	462	412	96	19	3	13	43	94	4	23	4	236	314	396	710	160	273	20	9	316	100	+0	+3	+2	-5	+10	1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	460	411	96	19	3	13	42	95	4	22	4	235	313	393	706	158	272	21	9	315	99	-0	+3	+2	-5	+10	1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	455	406	95	19	3	13	42	95	4	20	4	233	311	388	699	155	271	21	9	312	97	-2	+2	+1	-5	+10	0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	444	396	91	18	3	12	41	94	4	17	3	230	308	381	690	151	269	21	9	308	95	-3	+2	+1	-5	+10	0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	434	388	88	17	3	11	39	93	4	14	3	227	304	373	677	146	267	21	9	303	91	-5	+2	-0	-5	+9	0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	419	375	82	16	2	10	38	91	3	9	2	222	299	362	660	140	263	22	9	296	87	-7	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	92%	400	359	77	15	2	9	35	89	3	5	2	215	291	346	638	131	257	22	9	287	80	-9	+0	-2	-4	+9	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	425	379	90	18	3	12	39	87	4	21	4	238	316	398	714	160	276	20	9	318	100	+0	+3	+2	-5	+9	0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	423	377	89	18	3	12	39	87	4	20	4	237	315	395	710	158	276	21	9	316	99	-0	+2	+2	-5	+9	0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	419	373	87	18	3	11	39	87	4	18	4	235	313	390	703	155	274	21	9	313	97	-1	+2	+1	-4	+9	0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	408	364	85	17	3	11	37	86	4	16	3	232	310	383	693	151	273	21	9	309	95	-3	+2	+0	-4	+9	0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	399	357	81	16	3	10	36	85	3	13	3	228	306	375	680	146	270	21	9	304	91	-4	+1	-0	-4	+9	0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	385	344	77	15	3	9	35	84	3	8	2	223	300	363	664	140	266	22	9	297	87	-6	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	92%	368	329	71	14	2	8	33	82	3	5	2	217	293	348	641	131	260	22	9	288	80	-9	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3466	3089	710	146	26	91	317	727	30	122	29	230	308	382	690	152	270	21	9	308	97	-25	+13	+4	-31	+75	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	133	27	5	17	59	136	6	23	5	230	307	382	689	152	270	21	9	308	97	-5	+2	+1	-6	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4891	4367	1023	196	35	137	435	1023	48	200	45	234	311	389	700	155	274	21	9	312	97	-27	+17	+6	-37	+88	4.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	136	26	5	18	58	136	6	27	6	234	310	390	700	155	274	21	9	312	97	-4	+3	+1	-6	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	110	91	248	327	419	-9	+4	15.9	16.4
/162	664	19	15	-1.6	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 17
#2Michael A. Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,758 PA	5.7	3,758	108	128	232	288	380	+12	+64	13.3	12.9
/162	664	19	23	+2.1	+11.2	2.3	pk7: 13
#3Mike Davis'80-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,298 PA	5.0	3,298	91	134	256*	313*	432*	-31	+13	11.4	12.4
/162	664	18	27	-6.2	+2.5	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.7	3,817	104	140	230	305	384	-0	+10	9.9	9.3
/162	664	18	24	-0.1	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Adam Comorosky'26-'35 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,116 PA	4.7	3,116	28	57	251*	316*	396*	-28	+23	6.8	7.4
/162	664	6	12	-6.0	+4.8	1.4	pk7: 8
#6Jimmy Walsh'12-'17 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,100 PA	3.2	2,100	6	92	232*	326*	393*	-12	+5	5.0	5.0
/162	664	2	29	-3.9	+1.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Shaw (OGILVIE)	25	51→54	52→56	58	46	234/312/393	158	273	10	18	20%	9%	100	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Desmond Jennings 2013 · MLB	26	50→60	48→50	62→60	50	246/318/394	148	294	15	31	21%	8%	101	+1.4	244/318/389	145	291	13	20	20%	9%	101	+1.4	242/320/381	140	287	12	19	19%	10%	100	+0.9
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	52→51	51→60	56→50	47	259/321/431	172	315	18	23	23%	7%	112	+2.2	258/315/457	199	302	27	14	24%	7%	116	+2.5	245/300/432	188	279	27	12	23%	7%	105	+1.0
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	52→55	46→50	55→60	45	255/308/391	136	304	13	27	21%	6%	97	+1.1	227/289/365	138	268	14	21	20%	7%	84	+0.2	223/288/367	144	263	14	26	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	244/312/386	141	323	15	32	28%	8%	98	+1.2	233/302/360	127	321	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.5	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	47→53	48→50	55	50	235/303/384	149	279	14	25	21%	8%	94	+0.9	243/317/377	134	302	13	19	22%	10%	97	+1.1	249/322/365	117	312	11	18	22%	10%	97	+0.9
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Peter Bourjos 2012 · MLB	25	52→56	47→50	61→60	43	257/307/411	154	312	13	25	22%	5%	101	+1.4	240/300/370	130	307	11	16	24%	6%	89	+0.5	227/292/337	110	300	9	14	26%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2024 · MLB	24	45→54	48→50	55→60	43	230/292/365	135	286	16	26	25%	6%	86	+0.3	213/280/329	116	277	14	23	27%	7%	73	-0.6	205/271/309	103	274	13	24	29%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Ryan Kalish 2012 · MLB	24	49→53	47→50	56→55	48	246/305/387	142	295	14	24	22%	8%	95	+1.0	226/278/329	103	300	9	19	26%	7%	71	-0.8	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Jake McCarthy 2023 · MLB	26	53→60	49→50	62→60	46	259/323/418	158	325	15	33	24%	7%	109	+2.0	262/323/386	124	312	11	32	19%	7%	101	+1.4	258/314/387	129	298	10	28	16%	6%	98	+1.0
★Rickie Weeks Jr. 2008 · MLB	25	51→58	51→55	60→55	55	251/357/425	173	310	17	25	23%	11%	124	+3.1	250/351/432	182	302	19	17	22%	11%	123	+3.0	256/348/440	184	314	21	11	24%	10%	125	+3.4
✕Jake Marisnick 2016 · MLB	25	48→56	46→60	56→55	38	236/280/363	127	301	13	29	26%	4%	80	-0.1	225/280/389	164	297	20	21	30%	6%	87	+0.4	229/291/435	206	302	27	18	33%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Andrés Giménez 2024 · MLB	25	52→59	49→50	57→55	44	261/322/416	155	305	16	24	20%	5%	109	+2.0	242/298/355	113	279	11	24	17%	5%	85	+0.2	235/289/332	98	272	10	24	17%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Cameron Maybin 2012 · MLB	25	55→60	45→50	60→55	47	263/322/398	135	332	11	27	23%	8%	103	+1.6	242/302/363	121	296	10	24	21%	8%	88	+0.5	258/330/374	116	309	11	30	19%	9%	102	+1.2
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	49→55	47→50	54→60	48	244/300/392	148	283	13	19	19%	7%	94	+0.9	251/308/377	126	292	12	20	17%	8%	94	+0.9	258/311/370	112	300	9	15	17%	7%	94	+0.6
✕Akil Baddoo 2024 · MLB	25	47→53	48→50	54→55	53	234/315/381	146	298	15	22	26%	11%	97	+1.1	217/292/370	153	288	15	25	28%	9%	87	+0.4	209/284/365	156	277	15	27	29%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Rolando Acosta 2009 · AAA	26	50→60	47→50	53→45	46	249/307/385	137	296	15	23	21%	7%	96	+1.0	263/309/382	119	306	9	15	17%	5%	95	+1.0	269/312/404	135	308	11	10	16%	4%	98	+0.6

Matt Shaw

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps