Mathias LaCombe — OGILVIE

Mathias LaCombe P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%23.7%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD2540

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.7%	3.04	3.73	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.7%	3.04	3.73	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	32.6%	10.7%	21.9%	1.3%	3.04	2.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	34	2	49	208	66	23	3	6%	1.4	24.8%	13.1%	11.6%	1.9%	3.88	3.70	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	34	2	49	208	66	23	3	6%	1.4	24.8%	13.1%	11.6%	1.9%	3.88	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CWS	2	1	3	11	4	0	0	50%	1.5	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	16	0	25	103	35	12	2	0%	1.6	34.0%	11.7%	22.3%	1.9%	2.88	2.77	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	16	1	21	94	27	11	1	6%	1.3	28.7%	11.7%	17.0%	1.1%	5.66	2.74	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	13.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	55	234	72	26	4	—	—	30.8%	11.3%	19.5%	1.6%	3.98	3.82	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	69	35	8	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	69	34	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	64	0	67	283	68	34	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	274	66	33	8	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	28	0	29	122	29	15	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	43	0	45	190	46	23	5	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	50	0	52	220	53	26	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	52	0	55	232	56	28	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	184	92	22	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.20	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	24	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		53	16	102	432	103	56	8	30%	1.9	23.7%	13.1%	10.7%	1.8%	3.44	3.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	31	200	847	201	111	15	30%	1.9	23.7%	13.1%	10.7%	1.8%	3.44	3.72	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathias LaCombe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	23.7%	13.3%	2.9%	—	4.55	24.1%	12.1%	203	-0.19	—	—	—
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
Andrew Politi R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.33	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.71	3.38	292	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	83
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	83
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	81
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.65	21.9%	11.5%	86	+0.01	4.42	152	80
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	80
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	80
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.37	27.1%	13.6%	163	-0.08	3.08	344	80
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	80
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	80
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	79
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	79
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	24.0%	12.3%	1.13	4.62
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82