Mathias LaCombe
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%23.7%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 53 | 224 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 74% | 2.8 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 3.04 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 53 | 224 | 73 | 24 | 3 | 74% | 2.8 | 32.6% | 10.7% | 21.9% | 1.3% | 3.04 | 2.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 18 | 1 | 28 | 114 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 6% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 2.57 | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 67 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 95 | 398 | 106 | 50 | 10 | — | — | 26.7% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 69 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 69 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 68 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 53 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 129 | 64 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 101 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 15 | 81 | 338 | 81 | 44 | 6 | 41% | 2.2 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 2.88 | 3.73 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 37 | 200 | 831 | 199 | 109 | 15 | 41% | 2.2 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 2.88 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mathias LaCombe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 81 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 81 |
| Andrew Politi R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .274 | 4.52 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.96 | 3.45 | 292 | 81 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 80 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 80 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.95 | 26.8% | 13.8% | 111 | -0.79 | 3.53 | 281 | 79 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 79 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.48 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 163 | +0.03 | 3.30 | 323 | 78 |
| Alex Amalfi R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.93 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.7% | .293 | 5.23 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 57 | +1.30 | 2.66 | 264 | 78 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 78 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 77 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.63 | 18.5% | 12.8% | 0.9% | .313 | 4.12 | 14.1% | 1.7% | 50 | +0.49 | 3.63 | 104 | 77 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 77 |
| Grant Black R 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 77 |
| Richard Guasch R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 22.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | .287 | 3.21 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 72 | -1.23 | 2.94 | 293 | 77 |
| Layne Somsen R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 76 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 76 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 76 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 24.0% | 12.3% | 1.11 | 4.60 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |