Adam Bates

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKBOS	11	9	36	3.96	3.60	23.8%	11.3%	—	K 16.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.12
2025	19	ASalem Red Sox	22	6	80	5.04	4.82	17.5%	15.9%	—	K 12.9% · BB 18.7% · FIP 5.88
2026	20	MIX2 levels	35	0	66	8.45	6.36	17.5%	18.7%	—	K 13.1% · BB 21.9% · FIP 7.02
2027PROJ	21	MLBBOS	45	0	47	6.83	6.83	11.1%	20.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBOS	35	0	37	6.35	6.20	14.2%	17.4%	-0.7
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBOS	54	0	57	5.96	5.80	16.2%	15.8%	-0.8

Next 3 projected WAR -2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control20Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJonny Cuevas (age 21) · Johan Moreno (age 21) · Miguel Mora (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 163155vR 147

ERA6.83

FIP6.83

K%11.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-8.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	23.8%	11.3%	12.6%	2.0%	3.96	3.60	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	17.5%	15.9%	1.6%	1.9%	5.04	4.82	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.7%	-1.2%	3.2%	8.45	6.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	45	0	47	198	22	40	6	0%	1.0	11.1%	20.0%	-8.9%	3.2%	6.83	6.83	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	72	0	76	320	46	56	10	0%	1.1	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	3.1%	6.35	6.20	-1.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	75	0	79	332	54	53	10	0%	1.0	16.2%	15.8%	0.4%	3.1%	5.96	5.80	-1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	77	0	81	341	59	51	10	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	3.0%	5.69	5.55	-0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	345	62	49	10	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.0%	5.52	5.42	-0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	345	63	49	10	0%	1.0	18.2%	14.2%	4.0%	3.0%	5.45	5.40	-0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	77	0	80	340	62	48	10	0%	1.0	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.43	-0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	78	330	66	45	10	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.33	5.25	-0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	71	0	75	315	62	44	10	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.36	5.38	-0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	70	296	58	42	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.48	5.56	-0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	22	27	5	0%	1.1	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	3.1%	6.35	6.20	-0.7
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	54	0	57	241	39	38	7	0%	1.1	16.2%	15.8%	0.4%	3.1%	5.96	5.80	-0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	49	42	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	3.0%	5.69	5.55	-0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	69	0	72	304	55	43	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.0%	5.52	5.42	-0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	71	0	75	317	58	45	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.2%	4.0%	3.0%	5.45	5.40	-0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	71	0	75	317	58	45	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.43	-0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	73	308	62	42	10	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.33	5.25	-0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	68	0	71	300	59	41	10	0%	1.0	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.36	5.38	-0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	55	40	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.48	5.56	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		565	0	593	2506	456	364	79	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.7%	3.1%	5.57	5.13	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	123	27	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.7%	3.1%	5.57	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		68	15	183	865	117	166	29	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	16	200	947	129	181	31	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Bates (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.83	11.1%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.84	16.0%	-0.0%	235	-0.99	—	—	—
Jonny Cuevas R 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	12.3%	18.2%	2.7%	.281	4.58	13.6%	2.6%	225	-1.25	4.37	334	89
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	88
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	86
Joel Pineiro R 2000 · 5.71 FIP	21	SU	5.71	10.6%	13.8%	3.2%	.324	3.81	17.3%	9.9%	481	-1.90	2.76	1,831	83
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	82
Sean Gallagher R 2007 · 6.81 FIP	21	SU	6.81	6.8%	16.2%	4.0%	.296	4.41	18.0%	6.2%	193	-2.40	3.89	207	81
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	81
Fabricio Reina R 2021 · 6.88 FIP	21	SW	6.88	12.6%	27.2%	2.5%	.224	5.16	17.4%	-2.0%	28	-1.72	3.76	191	81
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	80
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	79
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	79
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	78
Luis Talavera R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	21	SU	5.76	11.5%	16.9%	2.7%	.284	4.66	9.8%	-5.0%	30	-1.10	3.22	212	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	78
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	78
Leomar Rosario R 2023 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	14.5%	26.7%	1.4%	.310	5.64	21.1%	-5.2%	90	-0.36	4.95	134	77
Patrick Murphy R 2016 · 6.18 FIP	21	SW	6.18	14.9%	16.7%	4.1%	.339	3.85	16.1%	6.7%	319	-2.33	3.08	556	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	75	17.5%	15.0%	1.22	5.70
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*