Daniel Guerra — OGILVIE

Daniel Guerra P Vancouver Canadians

+0.2 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2030

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.2%

IP82

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	6	6	21	91	19	16	0	14.2%	22.0%	0.0%	0.84	4.68	+0.1
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	15.1%	7.9%	1.8%	5.19	3.80	+0.5
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	15.8%	16.4%	0.8%	5.56	4.30	+0.6
2025	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	17.9%	13.3%	2.7%	3.40	4.74	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	9	41	12	5	1	—	—	—	4.82	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	15	15	82	346	73	38	10	21.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
2026 Total	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	91	387	85	43	11	22.0%	11.1%	2.8%	4.68	4.18	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	TOR	19	19	105	444	97	44	13	22.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.44	+1.0
2028	24	MLB	TOR	22	22	124	522	118	49	15	22.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.31	+1.4
2029	25	MLB	TOR	25	25	137	579	132	52	16	22.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.23	+1.7
2030	26	MLB	TOR	26	26	144	609	140	54	17	23.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.24	4.21	+1.8
2031	27	MLB	TOR	27	27	147	621	143	56	18	23.1%	9.0%	2.8%	4.23	4.22	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	TOR	27	27	147	620	143	56	18	23.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.24	+1.8
2033	29	MLB	TOR	26	26	144	606	139	55	18	22.9%	9.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.29	+1.6
2034	30	MLB	TOR	25	25	139	588	134	54	17	22.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+1.5
2035	31	MLB	TOR	24	24	134	567	128	53	17	22.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.43	+1.3
2036	32	MLB	TOR	23	23	129	545	121	52	17	22.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.51	+1.2
2037	33	MLB	TOR	22	22	123	520	114	50	17	21.9%	9.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.61	+1.0
2038	34	MLB	TOR	21	21	117	494	106	49	16	21.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	+0.8
2039	35	MLB	TOR	20	20	110	466	98	47	16	21.1%	10.1%	3.4%	4.76	4.84	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			56	41	215	944	159	134	16	16.9%	14.2%	1.7%	4.18	4.38	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			52	38	200	877	148	124	15	16.9%	14.2%	1.7%	4.18	4.38	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.2%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.32	22.5%	13.1%	366	-0.34	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	94
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	93
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	93
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	93
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	91
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	91
Jordan Foley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	91
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	90
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	90
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	90
Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	90
Levi Stoudt R 2027 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	89
Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	89
Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	89
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	89
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.6	$16M	+$13M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.5	$15M	+$12M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.3	$14M	+$9M
Totals		$14M		$95M	+$81M