Daniel Guerra — OGILVIE

Daniel Guerra P Vancouver Canadians

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%16.9%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	6	6	21	91	19	16	0	100%	3.6	14.2%	22.0%	-7.8%	0.0%	0.84	4.68	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	6	6	21	91	19	16	0	100%	3.6	20.9%	17.6%	3.3%	0.0%	0.84	3.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	56%	3.9	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	1.8%	5.19	3.80	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	56%	3.9	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	1.8%	5.19	3.80	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	56%	3.9	22.2%	6.3%	15.8%	1.3%	5.19	2.70	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	15.8%	16.4%	-0.5%	0.8%	5.56	4.30	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	15.8%	16.4%	-0.5%	0.8%	5.56	4.30	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	0.7%	5.56	3.26	—
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	17.9%	13.3%	4.7%	2.6%	3.40	4.71	—
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	17.9%	13.3%	4.7%	2.6%	3.40	4.71	—
2025	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.6%	3.40	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	24	15	75	317	102	40	7	62%	3.1	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.0%	3.23	3.86	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	24	15	75	317	102	40	7	62%	3.1	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.0%	3.23	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TOR	1	0	3	10	4	1	0	0%	2.7	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	0.0%	3.38	0.99	—
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	1	1	3	12	5	1	0	100%	3.3	41.7%	8.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.64	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TOR	14	14	59	249	78	29	4	100%	4.2	31.3%	11.6%	19.7%	1.6%	3.20	2.81	—
2026	22	AA RAW	TOR	3	0	4	16	9	1	1	0%	1.3	56.2%	6.2%	50.0%	6.2%	2.25	2.57	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	TOR	5	0	6	30	6	8	2	0%	1.3	20.0%	26.7%	-6.7%	6.7%	5.68	8.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	77	323	59	43	9	100%	5.5	18.3%	13.4%	4.9%	2.8%	5.28	5.18	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	78	331	64	41	9	100%	5.6	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	80	336	67	39	9	100%	5.7	19.8%	11.7%	8.2%	2.8%	4.90	4.82	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	336	68	39	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	78	331	66	38	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.6%	8.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	321	64	38	9	100%	5.8	20.0%	11.8%	8.2%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	307	61	37	10	100%	6.0	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	3.1%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	288	56	35	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.22	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	38	160	29	22	5	100%	5.4	18.3%	13.4%	4.9%	2.8%	5.28	5.18	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	55	232	45	29	7	100%	5.5	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	54	32	8	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.7%	8.2%	2.8%	4.90	4.82	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	59	34	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.82	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	60	35	9	100%	5.9	20.1%	11.6%	8.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	59	35	9	100%	5.8	20.0%	11.8%	8.2%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	68	287	57	34	9	100%	6.2	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	3.1%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	52	33	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	499	2106	415	253	62	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.57	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	101	25	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		78	54	281	1220	224	171	21	69%	3.6	18.4%	14.0%	4.3%	1.7%	3.90	4.27	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	867	159	122	15	69%	3.6	18.4%	14.0%	4.3%	1.7%	3.90	4.27	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	16.9%	15.2%	2.9%	—	4.98	19.1%	6.7%	235	-0.56	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	88
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	87
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	86
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	84
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Kyle Johnston R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.10	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.42	3.80	395	82
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	81
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	74	19.4%	12.3%	1.13	5.03
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41