Daniel Guerra

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#694ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	17	15	68	5.56	3.26	22.5%	13.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.30
2025	21	ATOR	22	13	82	3.40	3.90	24.2%	11.2%	—	K 17.9% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.71
2026	22	MIX5 levels	26	15	78	3.33	3.39	32.3%	12.1%	—	K 24.1% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.86
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.16	5.16	20.6%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTOR	5	5	27	4.96	4.88	21.5%	13.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTOR	6	6	37	4.80	4.71	22.0%	12.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$0.6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 83%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Ray Gaither (age 24) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%20.6%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	6	6	21	91	19	16	0	100%	3.6	14.2%	22.0%	-7.8%	0.0%	0.84	4.68	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	6	6	21	91	19	16	0	100%	3.6	20.9%	17.6%	3.3%	0.0%	0.84	3.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	56%	3.9	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	1.8%	5.19	3.80	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	9	5	35	158	35	10	2	56%	3.9	22.2%	6.3%	15.8%	1.3%	5.19	2.70	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	15.8%	16.4%	-0.5%	0.8%	5.56	4.30	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	15.8%	16.4%	-0.5%	0.8%	5.56	4.30	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	68	307	69	41	2	88%	4.0	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	0.7%	5.56	3.26	—
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	17.9%	13.3%	4.7%	2.6%	3.40	4.71	—
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	17.9%	13.3%	4.7%	2.6%	3.40	4.71	—
2025	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	13	82	347	84	39	9	59%	3.7	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.6%	3.40	3.90	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	26	15	78	331	107	40	9	58%	3.0	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.0%	3.33	3.86	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	26	15	78	331	107	40	9	58%	3.0	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.0%	3.33	3.86	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	26	15	78	331	107	40	9	58%	3.0	32.3%	12.1%	20.2%	2.7%	3.33	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	14.9%	5.7%	2.8%	5.16	5.16	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	62	260	56	35	7	100%	5.6	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.96	4.88	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	55	234	51	29	7	100%	6.2	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.71	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	229	51	28	6	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.72	4.67	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	52	222	49	27	6	100%	5.8	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.70	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	50	210	47	26	6	100%	6.2	22.1%	12.3%	9.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.79	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	46	194	43	24	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	42	176	38	23	6	100%	5.9	21.6%	12.8%	8.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.09	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	27	114	24	15	3	100%	5.4	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.96	4.88	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	37	156	34	19	4	100%	6.2	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.71	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	40	22	5	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.72	4.67	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	42	23	5	100%	5.6	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.70	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	44	186	41	23	5	100%	6.3	22.1%	12.3%	9.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.79	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	42	177	39	22	5	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	38	160	35	21	5	100%	6.3	21.6%	12.8%	8.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	276	1163	256	145	34	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.44	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	186	105	25	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.44	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		80	54	284	1234	227	173	21	68%	3.6	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	1.7%	3.92	4.26	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	868	160	122	15	68%	3.6	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	1.7%	3.92	4.26	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 59 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.86 (+1.05)K% 31.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.33%	—	×0.770	24.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.65%	—	×1.150	13.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 9 IPFIP 8.28 → 8.85 (+0.56)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	9.09%	÷1.000	×1.100	10.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.28 → 8.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 82 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.71 (+0.81)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.21%	—	×0.740	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.180	13.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.284	×1.300	2.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 41 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.08 (+1.00)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.680	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.78%	—	×1.250	17.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 27 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.69 (+1.13)K% 25.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.740	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.61%	—	×1.180	14.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.003	×1.300	2.33%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 35 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.80 (+1.07)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.15%	—	×0.680	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.250	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.005	×1.400	1.76%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Blue Jays · 21 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.68 (+1.12)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.88%	—	×0.680	14.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.58%	—	×1.250	21.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.130	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	20.6%	14.9%	2.8%	—	4.76	21.9%	9.2%	171	-0.40	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	89
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	21.8%	12.9%	1.12	4.87
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43