Daniel Guerra
P
Vancouver Canadians
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.40
FIP5.40
K%16.9%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%2.5%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 14.2% | 22.0% | -7.8% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 4.68 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.9% | 17.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 3.57 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 5 | 35 | 158 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 56% | 3.9 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 5.19 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 9 | 5 | 35 | 158 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 56% | 3.9 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 15.8% | 1.3% | 5.19 | 2.70 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 68 | 307 | 69 | 41 | 2 | 88% | 4.0 | 15.8% | 16.4% | -0.5% | 0.8% | 5.56 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 68 | 307 | 69 | 41 | 2 | 88% | 4.0 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 0.7% | 5.56 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 22 | 13 | 82 | 347 | 84 | 39 | 9 | 59% | 3.7 | 17.9% | 13.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 3.40 | 4.45 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 22 | 13 | 82 | 347 | 84 | 39 | 9 | 59% | 3.7 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 3.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 12 | 12 | 54 | 225 | 73 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 3.17 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 57 | 242 | 41 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.9% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.9% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 111 | 467 | 114 | 60 | 11 | — | — | 24.4% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.9% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 60 | 252 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 53 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 40 | 232 | 979 | 193 | 114 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.42 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 98 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 51 | 260 | 1128 | 204 | 158 | 18 | 77% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 3.95 | 4.21 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 39 | 200 | 868 | 157 | 121 | 14 | 77% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 3.95 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Guerra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 16.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.89 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 183 | -0.51 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 89 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 87 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 87 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 87 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 86 |
| Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 86 |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 86 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 85 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 14.9% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.02 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 128 | +0.23 | 4.43 | 225 | 85 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.55 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 59 | +0.96 | 4.59 | 138 | 83 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.31 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .289 | 7.22 | 13.9% | -0.3% | 19 | +1.91 | 3.66 | 117 | 83 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 83 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 82 |
| Nick Hull R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 82 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 82 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 60 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 1.07 | 4.97 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |