Cameron Nelson

OF Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+COL	43	.282/.349/.410	1	2	64	—	.250/.302/.375
2026	22	ACOL	368	.254/.410/.401	7	21	76	—	.197/.317/.301
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBCOL	521	.200/.304/.308	9	12	77	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCOL	136	.216/.316/.345	3	3	80	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	215	.218/.318/.352	5	5	82	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed58

Whiff%57

wOBA48

wRC+43

K%42

ISO40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRiver Town (age 24) · Brian O'Grady (age 24) · Nolan Fontana (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .301 / .305

PA320

HR5

SB7

K%28

BB%12

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE71

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	43	39	11	2	0	1	3	11	1	2	0	282	349	410	759	128	370	26	7	342	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	368	287	73	11	5	7	70	94	6	21	6	254	410	401	811	146	351	26	19	368	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	43	40	10	2	0	1	2	15	1	2	0	250	302	375	677	125	333	35	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	368	309	61	9	4	5	48	128	6	21	6	197	317	301	618	104	303	35	13	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	349	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	201	313	304	617	103	317	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	411	326	84	13	5	8	73	105	7	23	6	258	404	402	806	144	353	26	18	365	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	351	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	199	313	302	615	103	306	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	351	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	199	313	302	615	103	306	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	0%	521	449	90	16	3	9	61	147	6	12	3	200	304	308	611	108	273	28	12	282	77	-14	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	30%	453	393	80	14	3	8	52	126	5	11	3	204	306	318	624	114	275	28	11	286	80	-11	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	44%	488	423	87	16	3	9	56	134	6	12	3	207	307	324	632	117	276	27	11	289	82	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	508	440	92	17	3	10	57	138	6	12	3	209	308	328	636	120	276	27	11	291	83	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	52%	517	448	94	17	3	10	58	140	6	12	3	209	308	330	637	120	277	27	11	291	83	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	53%	517	449	94	17	3	10	57	140	6	11	3	209	306	329	635	120	276	27	11	290	82	-11	+1	-1	-3	+11	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	511	444	93	17	3	10	56	140	6	10	3	207	303	322	626	116	275	27	11	286	80	-12	+1	-1	-3	+11	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	30%	136	117	25	4	1	3	16	38	2	3	1	216	316	345	661	129	289	28	12	301	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	44%	215	185	41	7	2	5	25	59	3	5	1	218	318	352	669	133	290	27	12	304	82	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	258	224	50	9	2	6	29	70	3	6	2	220	318	356	674	136	291	27	11	305	83	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	52%	271	236	51	9	2	6	30	74	3	6	2	221	318	357	675	136	291	27	11	306	83	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	53%	276	241	53	10	2	6	30	75	3	6	2	221	316	356	673	135	291	27	11	304	82	-6	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	268	234	51	9	2	6	29	73	3	6	2	218	313	349	662	131	289	27	11	300	80	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1424	1237	271	48	11	32	159	389	17	32	10	219	316	353	670	134	291	27	11	304	81	-31	+2	-1	-9	+31	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	124	22	5	15	73	178	8	15	5	219	318	356	674	136	291	27	11	304	81	-14	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3725	3222	665	118	24	68	423	1051	46	98	26	206	307	321	628	115	281	28	11	287	81	-74	+7	-2	-20	+72	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	116	21	4	12	74	183	8	17	5	206	307	322	629	116	281	28	11	287	81	-14	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Jimmy Walsh'12-'17 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,100 PA	3.2	2,100	6	92	232*	326*	393*	-12	+5	5.0	5.0
/162	664	2	29	-3.9	+1.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Herbie Moran'08-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,518 PA	3.8	2,518	2	103	236*	329*	348*	-18	-17	1.0	1.0
/162	664	1	27	-4.7	-4.5	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.6	1,744	33	40	207	303	324	-10	+0	0.2	0.3
/162	664	13	15	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cameron Nelson (OGILVIE)	23	25→30	38→43	55→60	71	198/301/305	107	273	5	7	28%	12%	77	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→60	54→50	47	194/271/309	115	261	10	14	28%	9%	65	-1.2	193/272/317	124	269	12	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45	40	52→50	60	209/326/308	98	294	7	14	28%	14%	86	+0.3	210/308/299	89	309	4	9	29%	12%	77	-0.3	186/292/310	124	256	11	12	29%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Clark Elliott 2024 · A	23	42→40	36→45	51→50	49	196/281/257	61	262	4	12	25%	9%	57	-1.8	207/307/309	102	286	9	13	28%	10%	80	-0.2	198/314/306	108	278	10	16	29%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	218/294/306	88	309	7	13	29%	9%	73	-0.6	202/287/334	132	324	13	21	38%	10%	77	-0.3	193/290/335	142	306	15	26	38%	11%	76	-0.4
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	41→40	51→50	49	207/290/305	98	284	8	18	28%	10%	72	-0.7	201/264/300	99	312	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Alex Iadisernia 2024 · A	23	38→37	46→50	52→55	43	196/263/328	132	261	14	16	30%	7%	67	-1.1	197/263/295	98	277	8	16	30%	7%	59	-1.7	178/248/250	72	257	3	19	30%	7%	42	-2.0
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	213/278/313	100	287	7	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	208/259/299	91	298	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	170/204/219	49	257	0	15	32%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Gavin Cross 2024 · A	23	37→40	47→50	55	42	190/264/327	138	277	14	18	35%	8%	68	-1.0	203/255/336	133	283	15	23	32%	6%	65	-1.2	200/247/333	133	277	16	26	33%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	43→46	42→50	50	44	203/288/312	110	308	9	12	34%	9%	73	-0.6	210/288/341	131	299	12	11	31%	9%	79	-0.2	201/279/334	133	279	12	10	30%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Sherman Johnson 2013 · A	23	45→49	39→45	52→50	53	213/301/306	94	282	6	9	25%	11%	76	-0.4	219/297/329	110	279	8	12	23%	9%	79	-0.2	210/291/324	114	260	9	14	22%	10%	73	-0.6
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2

Cameron Nelson

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps