Paul Bonzagni
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%20.4%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 2.38 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 2.38 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 89 | 372 | 95 | 29 | 6 | 73% | 4.0 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 89 | 372 | 95 | 29 | 6 | 73% | 4.0 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 3.64 | 2.82 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 3 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 67% | 3.1 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 2.2% | 4.82 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 3 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 67% | 3.1 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 2.2% | 4.82 | 2.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 47 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 56 | 338 | 1426 | 302 | 142 | 46 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.33 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 84 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 96 | 44 | 10 | 53% | 3.2 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 3.68 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 33 | 200 | 846 | 175 | 80 | 17 | 53% | 3.2 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Bonzagni (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 203 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 86 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 86 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 85 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 84 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 83 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 82 |
| Thomas Ponticelli R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.73 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.29 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 163 | +0.56 | 2.59 | 367 | 81 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 81 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 81 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 81 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 80 |
| Chase Centala R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 80 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .337 | 6.11 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +2.41 | 3.70 | 418 | 80 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 79 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.52 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .257 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 3.7% | 127 | -0.50 | 4.07 | 378 | 79 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 79 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 64 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 1.20 | 4.62 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |