Paul Bonzagni

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#967ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	9	0	11	2.38	3.81	21.3%	10.6%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.82
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	16	89	3.64	2.82	25.5%	7.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.77
2025	23	A+TEX	3	2	9	4.82	2.89	33.3%	11.1%	—	K 33.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.91
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.47	4.47	22.2%	9.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTEX	5	5	28	4.56	4.55	22.5%	9.6%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTEX	6	6	38	4.57	4.58	22.6%	9.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

CompsShohei Tomioka (age 25) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Sean Harney (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.38	3.82	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.38	3.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.64	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.64	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	1.6%	3.64	2.82	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.91	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.91	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	64	271	61	26	8	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.43	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	60	254	57	25	8	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	57	239	54	23	7	100%	6.3	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	52	220	49	22	7	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	28	118	27	11	4	100%	5.6	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	3.2%	4.56	4.55	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	38	160	36	16	5	100%	6.3	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.2%	4.57	4.58	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	43	182	41	18	6	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.66	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	43	182	40	18	6	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.5%	4.73	4.79	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	150	635	143	62	21	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.28	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	82	28	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		34	18	110	464	96	44	10	53%	3.2	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	2.1%	3.61	3.69	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	33	200	846	175	80	18	53%	3.2	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	2.1%	3.61	3.69	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 9 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.81 (+0.89)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.215	×1.250	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 64 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.89 (+1.00)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.48%	—	×0.740	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.180	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.008	×1.300	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 25 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.47 (+0.84)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.69%	—	×0.770	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.50%	—	×1.150	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.014	×1.250	2.26%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 10 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.16 (+0.91)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.180	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.082	×1.300	2.73%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Bonzagni (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.47	22.5%	12.8%	181	+0.00	—	—	—
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	81
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	80
Cole Sands R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP-	4.38	21.3%	8.9%	3.5%	.358	3.04	25.4%	19.1%	196	-1.34	2.28	474	79
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	78
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	78
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	78
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	77
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	77
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	22.4%	9.8%	1.18	4.49
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*