Paul Bonzagni — OGILVIE

Paul Bonzagni P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%20.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.38	3.82	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.38	3.82	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.38	3.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.64	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.64	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	89	372	95	29	6	73%	4.0	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	1.6%	3.64	2.82	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.91	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.91	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	3	2	9	45	15	5	1	67%	3.1	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	2.2%	4.82	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TEX	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	81	342	72	33	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.50	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	81	342	73	32	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.46	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	80	337	79	29	10	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.31	4.21	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	78	327	76	28	10	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	3.1%	4.31	4.30	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	74	312	72	28	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.2%	4.38	4.43	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	294	66	27	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.52	4.61	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	65	274	61	26	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.6%	4.70	4.81	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	35	148	31	14	5	100%	5.8	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.62	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	54	228	49	21	7	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	61	22	8	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	3.2%	4.43	4.33	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	64	24	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.43	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	63	24	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.4%	4.51	4.56	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	63	266	60	25	10	100%	6.3	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.66	4.75	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	55	24	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.9%	4.85	4.96	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	402	1699	382	154	58	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.22	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	77	29	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		34	18	110	464	96	44	10	53%	3.2	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	2.1%	3.61	3.69	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	33	200	846	175	80	18	53%	3.2	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	2.1%	3.61	3.69	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Bonzagni (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.4%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.39	21.9%	12.7%	242	-0.21	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	86
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	86
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	85
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	85
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	80
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	74	22.1%	9.2%	1.20	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93