Leodarlyn Colon — OGILVIE

Leodarlyn Colon P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%19.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	8	1	16	71	19	6	1	12%	2.0	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	2.1%	2.76	4.06	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	8	1	16	71	19	6	1	12%	2.0	26.8%	8.5%	18.3%	1.4%	2.76	2.67	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	1	9	55	6	11	2	10%	0.9	7.4%	25.0%	-17.6%	5.1%	11.57	8.43	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	1	9	55	6	11	2	10%	0.9	7.4%	25.0%	-17.6%	5.1%	11.57	8.43	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	10	1	9	55	6	11	2	10%	0.9	10.9%	20.0%	-9.1%	3.6%	11.57	8.14	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	10	44	202	35	24	4	71%	3.2	11.8%	14.9%	-3.1%	2.8%	3.65	5.55	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	10	44	202	35	24	4	71%	3.2	11.8%	14.9%	-3.1%	2.8%	3.65	5.55	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	10	44	202	35	24	4	71%	3.2	17.3%	11.9%	5.4%	2.0%	3.65	4.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	0	16	73	18	11	1	0%	1.1	16.8%	18.8%	-2.1%	1.4%	4.60	4.86	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	0	16	73	18	11	1	0%	1.1	16.8%	18.8%	-2.1%	1.4%	4.60	4.86	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	0	16	73	18	11	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	15.1%	9.6%	1.4%	4.60	3.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	3	24	101	21	13	1	16%	1.2	12.8%	14.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	3.80	3.87	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	19	3	24	101	21	13	1	16%	1.2	12.8%	14.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	3.80	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	WSH	5	1	5	20	7	3	1	20%	1.1	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	5.0%	5.06	4.79	—
2026	21	A RAW	WSH	14	2	18	81	14	10	0	14%	1.3	17.3%	12.3%	4.9%	0.0%	3.44	3.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	177	37	23	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.2%	7.6%	2.9%	5.13	5.00	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	18	12	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.2%	7.6%	2.9%	5.13	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	87	18	11	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.2%	7.6%	2.9%	5.13	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	107	29	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.2%	7.6%	2.9%	5.13	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		65	15	109	502	66	80	11	23%	1.7	13.1%	15.9%	-2.7%	2.2%	4.36	5.22	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	27	200	918	121	146	20	23%	1.7	13.1%	15.9%	-2.7%	2.2%	4.36	5.22	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leodarlyn Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	19.2%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.00	20.8%	7.6%	42	-0.43	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	82
Matthew Swain R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.9%	13.9%	1.6%	.362	5.19	20.6%	7.5%	115	+0.82	4.37	175	82
Cre Finfrock R 2018 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	17.9%	16.5%	1.1%	.286	4.63	23.0%	11.3%	38	+0.36	4.27	103	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	82
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	82
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	82
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	82
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	82
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.4%	13.7%	1.13	5.21
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99