Elvis Soto
P
Salem Red Sox
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 174 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 15 | 0 | 24 | 95 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 3.42 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 15 | 0 | 24 | 95 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.6% | 9.5% | 23.2% | 2.1% | 3.42 | 2.72 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 21 | 3 | 86% | 3.5 | 16.1% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 4.28 | 4.39 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 21 | 3 | 86% | 3.5 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 4.28 | 3.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.82 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 68 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 12 | 72 | 298 | 54 | 37 | 7 | 41% | 2.5 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 4.51 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 33 | 200 | 828 | 150 | 102 | 21 | 41% | 2.5 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elvis Soto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.20 | 23.9% | 15.1% | 30 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 86 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 84 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 82 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 82 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Yon Castro R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .297 | 4.53 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 167 | +1.32 | 3.21 | 274 | 80 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 80 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 79 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 79 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 78 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 78 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 78 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 77 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 77 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 77 |
| Ben Anderson R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 77 |
| Julian Garcia R 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.15 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .314 | 5.03 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 177 | +1.88 | 1.61 | 328 | 76 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.15 | 4.29 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |