Julian Garcia
P
Louisville Bats
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10292vR 83
ERA3.59
FIP3.59
K%25.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%16.9%
ROS IP9
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 28 | 8 | 78 | 313 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 29% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 2.54 | 3.15 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 28 | 8 | 78 | 313 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 29% | 2.8 | 30.0% | 8.0% | 22.0% | 1.0% | 2.54 | 2.15 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 126 | 519 | 120 | 37 | 14 | 96% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 3.58 | 4.56 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 126 | 519 | 120 | 37 | 14 | 96% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 3.58 | 3.52 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 8 | 58 | 286 | 59 | 35 | 13 | 36% | 2.6 | 16.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 8.43 | 6.19 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 8 | 58 | 286 | 59 | 35 | 13 | 36% | 2.6 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 8.43 | 5.81 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 17.8% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 8.86 | 7.39 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.2% | 16.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.86 | 6.85 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 3 | 16 | 59 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 5.3 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 1.61 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 3 | 16 | 59 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 5.3 | 35.6% | 6.8% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 1.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 28 | 2 | 46 | 183 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 7% | 1.6 | 33.2% | 8.8% | 24.4% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 0 | 29 | 120 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.66 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 820 | 205 | 102 | 34 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 4.08 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 43 | 345 | 1459 | 307 | 148 | 49 | 37% | 2.9 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.47 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 25 | 200 | 847 | 178 | 86 | 29 | 37% | 2.9 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.50 | 24.0% | 13.9% | 20 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 68 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 67 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 67 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 66 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 66 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 65 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.02 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +1.49 | 3.53 | 135 | 64 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 64 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 64 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 63 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 63 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 63 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.26 | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.29 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 44 | +1.03 | 3.26 | 493 | 63 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 62 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 62 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 62 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 116 | 61 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 61 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 61 |