Julian Garcia

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	AAPHI	13	0	21	8.86	6.85	23.2%	16.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 17.8% · FIP 7.56
2025	30	AACIN	3	3	16	1.12	1.23	35.6%	6.8%	—	K 28.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 1.61
2026	31	MIX2 levels	54	2	82	3.09	3.66	29.5%	9.6%	0.9	K 27.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	32	MLBCIN	39	0	41	3.97	4.21	25.5%	10.0%	0.2
2028PROJ82% MLB	33	MLBCIN	32	0	34	4.29	4.50	24.4%	10.4%	0.0
2029PROJ78% MLB	34	MLBCIN	21	0	22	4.58	4.79	23.5%	10.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%54

FB Velo21

Form3.58 ERA (proj 3.97) · K 22.4% (proj 25.5%) · BB 9.3% (proj 10.0%) · last 90d · 28 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Sergio Santos (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.97

FIP4.21

K%25.5%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.267

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	28	8	78	313	94	25	3	29%	2.8	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	1.3%	2.54	3.13	—
2018	23	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	28	8	78	313	94	25	3	29%	2.8	30.0%	8.0%	22.0%	1.0%	2.54	2.15	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	126	519	120	37	14	96%	5.5	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.4%	3.58	4.49	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	126	519	120	37	14	96%	5.5	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.58	3.52	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	8	58	286	59	35	13	36%	2.6	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.3%	8.43	6.29	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	8	58	286	59	35	13	36%	2.6	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	4.5%	8.43	5.81	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	13	0	21	99	23	16	6	0%	1.6	18.8%	17.8%	1.0%	6.9%	8.86	7.56	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	13	0	21	99	23	16	6	0%	1.6	23.2%	16.2%	7.1%	6.1%	8.86	6.85	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	28.8%	7.5%	21.4%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	28.8%	7.5%	21.4%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	30	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	35.6%	6.8%	28.8%	0.0%	1.12	1.23	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	82	322	95	31	11	4%	1.5	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	3.4%	3.09	3.83	+0.7
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	82	322	95	31	11	4%	1.5	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	3.4%	3.09	3.83	+0.7
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	82	322	95	31	11	4%	1.5	29.5%	9.6%	19.9%	3.4%	3.09	3.66	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	0	46	179	41	19	7	0%	1.4	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	3.9%	3.13	4.53	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CIN	39	0	41	173	44	17	5	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.9%	3.97	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	43	18	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.50	+0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	CIN	27	0	29	121	28	13	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.8%	12.6%	3.5%	4.58	4.79	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	32	0	34	144	35	15	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.50	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	CIN	21	0	22	93	22	10	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.8%	12.6%	3.5%	4.58	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	0	102	417	98	44	15	0%	1.2	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.6%	3.83	4.42	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	0	200	815	192	86	29	0%	1.2	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.6%	3.83	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		143	43	380	1598	333	162	55	30%	2.7	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.19	4.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	840	175	85	29	30%	2.7	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.19	4.50	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 36 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.00 (+0.49)K% 37.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.76%	—	×0.860	32.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×0.900	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 16 IPFIP 0.95 → 1.61 (+0.66)K% 35.6% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.59%	—	×0.810	28.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.100	7.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.021	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.95 → 1.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 21 IPFIP 6.51 → 7.56 (+1.05)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.810	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.16%	—	×1.100	17.78%
HR / BF /BF	6.06%	÷1.051	×1.200	6.92%

Result: FIP 6.51 → 7.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 36 IPFIP 6.12 → 6.79 (+0.67)K% 18.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.86%	—	×0.880	16.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.57%	—	×1.050	17.40%
HR / BF /BF	4.57%	÷0.957	×1.100	5.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 6.12 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 16 IPFIP 5.24 → 5.27 (+0.03)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×1.100	5.18%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.344	×1.200	5.25%

Result: FIP 5.24 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 97 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.78 (+1.14)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.770	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.150	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.949	×1.250	4.08%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 29 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.65 (+0.42)K% 19.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.70%	—	×0.810	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.100	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.182	×1.200	1.54%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALakewood BlueClaws · 78 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.13 (+1.02)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.03%	—	×0.740	22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.99%	—	×1.180	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.966	×1.300	1.29%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	25.5%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.62	24.0%	13.5%	70	+0.41	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	69
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	299	69
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	68
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	68
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	68
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	68
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	67
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	67
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	67
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	66
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	66
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	66
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	65
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	65
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	64
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	64
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	42	24.2%	10.4%	1.30	3.92
Louis Coleman ('18)	1.4	46	23.4%	10.8%	1.17	3.51
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*