Julian Garcia
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.10
FIP4.10
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.2%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%15.3%
IP13
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 28 | 8 | 78 | 313 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 2.54 | 3.12 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 22 | 126 | 519 | 120 | 37 | 14 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 3.58 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 22 | 8 | 58 | 286 | 59 | 35 | 13 | 16.5% | 13.4% | 5.3% | 8.43 | 6.31 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 13 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 18.8% | 17.8% | 7.0% | 8.86 | 7.61 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 3 | 16 | 59 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 1.61 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CIN | 13 | — | 13 | 53 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 15 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 25.5% | 10.2% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 41 | 301 | 1289 | 250 | 134 | 44 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.65 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 27 | 200 | 856 | 166 | 89 | 29 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.65 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.20 | 23.9% | 14.8% | 20 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 88 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 79 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 76 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 75 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.