Julian Garcia — OGILVIE

Julian Garcia P Cincinnati Reds

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.50

FIP3.50

K%26.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%18.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	28	8	78	313	94	25	3	29%	2.8	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	1.3%	2.54	3.13	—
2018	23	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	28	8	78	313	94	25	3	29%	2.8	30.0%	8.0%	22.0%	1.0%	2.54	2.15	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	126	519	120	37	14	96%	5.5	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.4%	3.58	4.49	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	126	519	120	37	14	96%	5.5	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.58	3.52	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	8	58	286	59	35	13	36%	2.6	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.3%	8.43	6.29	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	8	58	286	59	35	13	36%	2.6	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	4.5%	8.43	5.81	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	13	0	21	99	23	16	6	0%	1.6	18.8%	17.8%	1.0%	6.9%	8.86	7.56	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	13	0	21	99	23	16	6	0%	1.6	23.2%	16.2%	7.1%	6.1%	8.86	6.85	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	28.8%	7.5%	21.4%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	28.8%	7.5%	21.4%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	30	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	3	3	16	59	21	4	0	100%	5.3	35.6%	6.8%	28.8%	0.0%	1.12	1.23	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	0	44	170	40	17	7	0%	1.4	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	4.1%	3.07	4.51	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	52	2	80	313	94	29	11	4%	1.5	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	3.5%	3.05	3.84	+0.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	52	2	80	313	94	29	11	4%	1.5	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	3.5%	3.05	3.84	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	CIN	21	2	36	143	54	12	4	10%	1.7	37.8%	8.4%	29.4%	2.8%	3.03	2.51	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	CIN	31	0	44	170	40	17	7	0%	1.4	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	4.1%	3.07	4.64	-0.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	CIN	31	0	44	170	40	17	7	0%	1.4	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	4.1%	3.07	4.64	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	7	2	1	0%	1.1	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.8%	3.50	3.50	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.8%	3.50	3.50	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	86	340	101	31	12	—	—	29.8%	9.2%	20.6%	3.5%	3.08	3.82	+1.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	50	212	101	31	12	—	—	47.6%	14.7%	32.9%	5.5%	5.27	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	128	0	135	569	140	53	19	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.4%	4.34	4.43	+0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	118	0	124	522	125	50	19	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.53	4.66	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	122	0	128	540	133	50	18	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.4%	4.34	4.43	+0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	112	0	118	498	119	48	18	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.53	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		271	0	296	1233	299	118	44	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.5%	14.7%	3.6%	4.21	4.21	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	834	202	80	30	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.5%	14.7%	3.6%	4.21	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		141	43	378	1589	331	160	55	30%	2.7	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.19	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	840	175	84	29	30%	2.7	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.19	4.50	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	26.5%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.54	24.3%	14.8%	258	+0.68	—	—	—
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	74
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	66
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,134	62
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	31	SW	3.98	26.9%	7.8%	3.9%	.259	3.13	29.2%	20.8%	171	-0.85	2.53	827	62
Carlos Villanueva R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	22.0%	7.6%	2.6%	.259	4.73	19.0%	15.9%	74	+1.11	3.62	135	62
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	62
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	62
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	61
Fernando Salas R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.8%	6.1%	4.1%	.256	3.90	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.39	2.71	288	60
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	60
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	60
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	60
Clayton Mortensen R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	31	SU	4.31	21.1%	9.7%	3.2%	.355	4.59	23.2%	9.0%	51	+0.28	4.31	221	60
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	60
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	60
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	59
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	59
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	59
David Hernandez R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	24.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.324	3.03	25.5%	19.3%	162	-0.78	2.60	268	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	135	25.1%	9.2%	1.25	4.23
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97