Robby Porco — OGILVIE

Robby Porco P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 RHP 6'8" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.1%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	38	0	59	258	65	42	3	0%	1.6	19.1%	18.9%	0.2%	1.5%	3.94	4.70	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	38	0	59	258	65	42	3	0%	1.6	19.1%	18.9%	0.2%	1.5%	3.94	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAD	15	0	26	108	28	16	2	0%	1.7	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	1.9%	4.56	3.80	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	23	0	34	150	37	26	1	0%	1.5	24.7%	17.3%	7.3%	0.7%	3.48	3.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	57	0	60	255	58	31	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.68	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	59	0	62	261	61	29	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	63	264	63	28	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	63	264	64	27	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	59	0	62	261	63	27	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	29	0	30	127	29	15	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.68	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	41	0	43	182	43	20	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	51	22	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	52	0	55	232	56	24	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	53	0	56	236	57	25	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	234	989	235	106	29	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.04	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	90	25	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		38	0	59	258	49	49	4	0%	1.6	19.1%	18.9%	0.2%	1.5%	3.94	4.70	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	870	166	164	13	0%	1.6	19.1%	18.9%	0.2%	1.5%	3.94	4.70	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Porco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.1%	13.8%	2.9%	—	4.51	23.4%	12.2%	185	-0.47	—	—	—
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	90
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	90
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	90
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.54	22.4%	7.7%	110	-0.08	4.45	161	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	88
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	88
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	88
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	88
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	87
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	23.5%	11.2%	1.12	4.57
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84