Jason Reitz

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP A peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	12	11	36	3.00	4.38	17.6%	10.5%	—	K 12.2% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	9	9	52	5.47	5.47	15.1%	12.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	4	4	23	5.22	5.12	17.4%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	36	5.01	4.91	18.8%	10.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsBryce Warrecker (age 22) · Dane Acker (age 23) · Tommy Mace (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%15.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3045

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	36	153	27	16	4	92%	3.0	12.2%	12.9%	-0.8%	3.6%	3.00	5.67	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	36	153	27	16	4	92%	3.0	12.2%	12.9%	-0.8%	3.6%	3.00	5.67	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	36	153	27	16	4	92%	3.0	17.6%	10.5%	7.2%	2.6%	3.00	4.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	9	9	52	220	33	28	7	100%	5.8	15.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.0%	5.47	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	54	227	39	26	7	100%	5.4	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	5.22	5.12	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	230	43	25	7	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.8%	7.9%	3.0%	5.01	4.91	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	230	45	25	7	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.83	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	226	44	24	7	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.85	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	17	11	3	100%	5.8	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	5.22	5.12	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	36	152	29	16	5	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.8%	7.9%	3.0%	5.01	4.91	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	36	19	5	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.83	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	38	21	6	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	624	119	68	19	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.0%	4.96	4.52	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	92	26	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.0%	4.96	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		12	11	36	153	19	20	5	92%	3.0	12.2%	12.9%	-0.8%	3.6%	3.00	5.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	61	200	850	103	110	30	92%	3.0	12.2%	12.9%	-0.8%	3.6%	3.00	5.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Reitz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	15.1%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.95	18.6%	7.6%	162	-0.52	—	—	—
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	84
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	82
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	80
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	80
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	79
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	79
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	78
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	77
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77
Allen Webster R 2013 · 6.05 FIP	23	SP	6.05	15.9%	12.4%	5.0%	.309	4.66	14.0%	4.3%	167	-1.39	3.95	267	77
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	76
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	76
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	76
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	76
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	5.09
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*