Lucas Kelly

P Everett AquaSox

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+SEA	5	6	7.50	7.93	22.2%	18.5%	—	K 22.2% · BB 18.5% · FIP 7.63
2026	23	MIX2 levels	41	54	4.64	2.31	37.6%	13.5%	—	K 29.5% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	64	67	4.41	4.41	28.6%	14.5%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSEA	28	29	4.29	4.22	28.5%	12.9%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSEA	43	45	4.24	4.21	28.3%	12.6%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control45FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Ernst (age 24) · Eduard Santos (age 25) · Zac Leigh (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%28.6%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—45

CTRL—45

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.63	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.63	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	5	0	6	27	6	5	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	7.4%	7.50	7.93	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	237	89	32	3	0%	1.3	29.5%	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	4.64	3.40	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	237	89	32	3	0%	1.3	29.5%	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	4.64	3.40	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	54	237	89	32	3	0%	1.3	37.6%	13.5%	24.1%	1.3%	4.64	2.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	64	0	67	283	81	41	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	82	37	8	0%	1.0	28.5%	12.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	81	36	8	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.6%	15.7%	2.8%	4.24	4.21	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	67	283	79	35	8	0%	1.0	28.0%	12.5%	15.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.25	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	76	34	8	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	28	0	29	122	35	16	3	0%	1.0	28.5%	12.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	54	24	5	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.6%	15.7%	2.8%	4.24	4.21	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	62	27	6	0%	1.0	28.0%	12.5%	15.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.25	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	65	29	7	0%	1.1	27.8%	12.5%	15.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	215	96	22	0%	1.1	28.1%	12.6%	15.5%	2.8%	4.27	3.88	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	238	106	24	0%	1.1	28.1%	12.6%	15.5%	2.8%	4.27	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		46	0	60	264	76	41	6	0%	1.3	28.7%	15.6%	13.1%	2.1%	4.92	3.83	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	875	251	137	19	0%	1.3	28.7%	15.6%	13.1%	2.1%	4.92	3.83	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	28.6%	14.5%	2.7%	—	4.23	28.3%	15.6%	203	-0.18	—	—	—
Nick Ernst R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	30.5%	15.3%	2.0%	.292	5.05	21.9%	7.3%	60	+1.49	3.56	117	91
Eduard Santos R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.02	2.04	138	88
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.7%	5.8%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	86
Frank Francisco R 2004 · 3.30 FIP	24	SU	3.30	27.8%	12.0%	1.8%	.254	3.78	18.3%	5.6%	59	+0.48	2.92	369	86
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	86
Brad Boxberger R 2012 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	27.5%	14.2%	2.4%	.284	3.44	33.4%	23.7%	150	-0.47	2.63	478	86
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	85
Craig Brooks R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	24	SU	3.23	27.1%	14.6%	1.0%	.274	4.82	27.5%	12.3%	112	+1.59	3.23	229	85
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	85
Magnus Ellerts R 2024 · 3.56 FIP	23	SU	3.56	28.1%	13.7%	2.0%	.284	4.28	25.9%	6.8%	64	+0.72	3.56	161	85
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	84
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	84
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	83
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	83
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	83
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	83
Johnathan Lavallee R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	26.2%	14.9%	1.7%	.245	4.50	21.2%	8.8%	95	+0.78	3.72	210	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	28.2%	13.0%	1.09	4.30
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Marshall Bridges ('59-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	49	26.7%*	12.3%*	0.88*	4.15*