Johan Contreras

C FCL Yankees

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 218 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	131	.200/.389/.260	0	1	38	—	.131/.290/.168
2024	19	ROKDSL NYY Yanke…	47	.167/.255/.238	1	0	-21	—	.091/.149/.091
2025	20	ROKNYY	72	.182/.250/.273	1	0	-33	—	.074/.125/.088
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBNYY	182	.175/.234/.243	2	2	35	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBNYY	23	.180/.241/.258	0	0	40	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

ISO45

Chase%13

wRC+8

wOBA7

BB%5

Speed5

CompsRyan Scott (age 22) · Arturo De Freitas (age 22) · Chuck Moorman (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj PA

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.173 / .233 / .240

PA32

HR0

K%39

BB%6

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	0	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	0	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	57	11	2	0	1	4	23	0	0	0	193	246	281	527	88	299	38	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	107	14	4	0	0	18	44	6	1	1	131	290	168	458	37	219	34	14	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	4	0	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	91	149	91	240		170	47	6	137	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	238	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	57	11	2	0	1	4	23	0	0	0	193	246	281	527	88	303	38	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	0	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	107	14	4	0	0	18	44	6	1	1	131	290	168	458	37	222	34	14	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	4	0	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	91	149	91	240		182	47	6	137	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	217	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	0	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	57	11	2	0	1	4	23	0	0	0	193	246	281	527	88	299	38	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	106	14	4	0	0	18	44	6	1	1	132	290	170	460	38	219	34	14	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	4	0	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	91	149	91	240		170	47	6	137	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	238	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	4	0	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	91	149	91	240		170	47	6	137	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	238	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	182	167	30	5	1	2	11	71	2	2	1	175	234	243	477	68	288	39	6	220	35	-14	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	66	61	11	2	0	1	4	25	1	1	0	180	240	256	496	76	290	38	6	227	40	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	180	241	258	499	78	289	39	4	229	40	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	182	217	227	445	45	308	39	4	229	18	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	622	113	28	0	0	28	254	0	0	0	182	217	227	444	45	307	39	4	229	18	-46	+0	+0	+12	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	409	367	50	10	0	2	33	172	9	2	1	136	225	180	405	44	249	42	8	195	18	-7	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	79	16	0	3	52	273	14	3	2	136	223	178	401	43	248	42	8	195	18	-48	+1	+0	+12	+14	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 72 PAwOBA .236 → .120 (−116)K% 43.1% → 62.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.06%	÷1.001	×1.440	—	—	61.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	3.43%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.99%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷1.056	×0.820	—	×0.995	17.66%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷1.043	×0.720	—	×0.995	5.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.008	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷2.059	×0.780	—	×0.995	1.08%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .236 → .120; ISO .091 → .032; BABIP .324 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 47 PAwOBA .228 → .137 (−91)K% 38.3% → 46.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.30%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	46.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.64%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.995	7.39%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.015	×0.680	—	×0.995	16.67%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.021	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.952	×0.470	—	×0.995	2.05%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .228 → .137; ISO .071 → .032; BABIP .261 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 131 PAwOBA .316 → .225 (−91)K% 27.5% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.48%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	33.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.08%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.95%
HBP% /PA	4.58%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.23%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷0.961	×0.680	×1.030	×1.008	16.07%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.996	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	5.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.463	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 193, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 99, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .316 → .225; ISO .060 → .038; BABIP .312 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 61 PAwOBA .377 → .217 (−160)K% 31.1% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.15%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	38.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.01%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.11%	÷1.023	×0.680	—	×1.022	24.55%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.057	×0.600	—	×1.022	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.608	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.66%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 222, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .377 → .217; ISO .164 → .060; BABIP .471 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Contreras (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	173/233/240	67	288	0	0	39%	6%	35	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Scott 2017 · A	22	33	36→40	47→30	36	159/226/223	64	286	4	5	43%	7%	28	-3.9	165/233/228	63	271	4	4	37%	7%	32	-3.6	132/213/189	57	213	5	2	38%	8%	15	-1.5
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→40	45→40	34	175/221/253	78	272	7	4	37%	5%	32	-3.6	185/240/265	80	303	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.8	138/183/216	78	244	10	0	46%	5%	8	-1.0
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	178/229/260	82	291	7	5	40%	5%	38	-3.2	191/228/268	77	268	5	3	30%	4%	38	-3.2	183/221/256	73	257	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/242	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	32	-3.6	182/235/282	100	271	11	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Jose Izarra 2024 · A	22	40→33	39→40	49→50	34	181/247/264	83	326	7	8	44%	6%	46	-2.6	184/256/269	85	312	7	11	40%	8%	51	-2.3	163/241/233	70	252	5	16	34%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Matt Whatley 2019 · A	23	37	39→40	46→50	34	178/235/261	83	296	6	6	40%	6%	40	-3.0	187/262/259	72	265	5	15	29%	8%	50	-2.3	172/233/253	81	229	10	8	29%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	35→33	40→50	46→40	37	175/233/264	89	270	9	3	37%	6%	40	-3.0	181/243/302	121	279	12	4	37%	7%	53	-2.1	156/227/293	137	222	18	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/254/264	79	299	6	6	38%	7%	49	-2.4	181/257/264	83	307	7	5	40%	7%	51	-2.3	157/235/235	78	282	8	3	44%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Francisco Garcia 2024 · A	21	36	39→40	43→50	33	175/237/259	84	291	7	5	40%	5%	41	-3.0	177/232/258	81	289	6	5	39%	5%	38	-3.2	143/196/212	69	231	6	4	39%	4%	15	-1.4
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	37	38→40	46→45	39	180/237/267	86	270	4	6	33%	6%	42	-2.9	212/279/317	105	298	8	7	29%	8%	70	-0.9	218/298/344	126	289	12	7	27%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jairo De La Rosa 2008 · A	22	37→33	39→40	43→45	31	184/217/268	84	284	7	8	37%	4%	34	-3.5	206/242/301	95	306	9	6	34%	4%	51	-2.2	207/238/296	89	297	10	3	33%	4%	45	-1.3
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Francisco Hernandez 2022 · A	22	36	38→40	45→50	31	162/223/236	74	331	6	9	50%	6%	30	-3.8	182/245/263	81	301	6	14	38%	7%	45	-2.7	173/238/253	81	266	6	17	35%	7%	37	-1.6
✕Luis Pineda 2024 · A	22	36	41→40	40	34	181/229/268	87	286	10	4	39%	5%	39	-3.1	199/246/292	93	336	9	5	41%	6%	51	-2.3	187/241/275	88	313	8	2	41%	6%	43	-1.5
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	37→33	37→40	47→50	31	179/219/250	71	280	4	7	37%	3%	31	-3.7	213/252/298	85	304	6	10	30%	4%	54	-2.0	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Anthony Hermelyn 2017 · A	23	35	39→40	41→30	40	173/239/254	82	274	7	3	37%	8%	40	-3.0	197/259/281	84	282	7	4	30%	8%	53	-2.1	189/254/256	68	258	5	0	27%	8%	42	-1.4
✕Antonio Gomez 2024 · A	22	41	39→40	43→30	34	194/243/275	81	316	7	3	39%	5%	46	-2.6	188/239/282	94	306	8	6	39%	6%	46	-2.6	157/211/255	98	248	10	5	39%	6%	28	-1.1
✕Emilio Gustave 2017 · A	22	39	40→45	46→45	36	186/249/279	94	299	8	7	38%	6%	50	-2.3	189/240/278	89	299	8	7	37%	5%	46	-2.6	174/220/252	78	271	7	7	37%	4%	30	-1.5
✕Domnit Bolivar 2011 · A	22	36→37	41→45	48→45	32	181/221/275	94	285	9	8	39%	4%	37	-3.3	203/252/303	100	290	9	9	32%	5%	55	-1.9	208/259/305	98	285	9	9	29%	6%	56	-1.0
✕Mateo Gil 2022 · A	22	41→33	41→45	44→45	34	202/240/301	99	299	9	8	35%	4%	51	-2.3	190/233/302	112	276	11	5	34%	5%	49	-2.4	170/213/284	114	239	12	3	34%	5%	35	-1.8