Johan Contreras — OGILVIE

Johan ContrerasC FCL Yankees

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 218 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .258 / .263

PA6

HR0

K%34

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	0	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	152	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	104	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	45	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	0	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	50	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	58	12	2	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	207	246	293	539	86	356	46	5	227	40	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	109	15	4	0	0	16	52	6	1	1	138	282	174	457	37	262	40	12	222	36	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	5	0	0	1	3	26	0	0	0	114	170	182	352	68	209	55	6	140	-19	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	239	62	3	120	-33	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	58	12	2	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	207	246	293	539	86	379	46	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	0	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	109	15	4	0	0	16	52	6	1	1	138	282	174	457	37	263	40	12	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	5	0	0	1	3	26	0	0	0	114	170	182	352	68	235	55	6	140	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	217	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	0	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	58	12	2	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	207	246	293	539	86	356	46	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	108	15	4	0	0	16	52	6	1	1	139	282	176	458	37	262	40	12	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	5	0	0	1	3	26	0	0	0	114	170	182	352	68	209	55	6	140	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	239	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	108	15	4	0	0	16	52	6	1	1	139	282	176	458	37	262	40	12	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	5	0	0	1	3	26	0	0	0	114	170	182	352	68	209	55	6	140	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	239	62	3	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		288	33	0	243	50	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	153	138	27	5	1	2	12	50	2	2	1	196	270	290	560	94	289	33	8	256	59	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	278	251	52	9	2	5	21	89	4	3	1	207	279	319	598	112	291	32	8	265	65	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	368	331	68	12	2	7	29	116	5	4	1	205	279	317	597	112	292	32	8	271	70	-13	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	422	380	78	14	2	8	33	132	6	4	2	205	279	316	595	111	292	31	8	275	72	-14	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	455	410	85	15	2	9	36	142	6	5	2	207	281	320	600	112	292	31	8	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	470	424	88	16	2	10	37	147	6	5	2	208	281	325	606	118	292	31	8	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	476	429	89	16	2	10	38	149	6	5	2	207	281	324	605	117	291	31	8	275	72	-16	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	472	425	87	16	2	9	38	149	6	4	2	205	279	315	595	111	290	32	8	273	71	-16	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	466	419	85	15	2	9	38	148	6	4	1	203	279	313	591	110	289	32	8	270	69	-17	+0	-2	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	208	283	312	596	104	291	32	8	248	59	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	135	122	25	5	1	2	10	43	2	1	0	205	276	311	588	107	292	32	7	258	65	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	194	174	37	7	1	4	15	61	3	2	1	213	286	333	620	121	293	31	8	265	70	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	231	208	44	8	1	5	18	72	3	2	1	212	284	332	616	120	294	31	8	268	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	253	228	49	9	1	6	20	79	3	3	1	215	287	342	629	127	294	31	8	270	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	259	233	49	9	1	6	21	81	3	3	1	210	284	335	619	124	293	31	8	270	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	260	234	49	9	1	6	21	82	3	3	1	209	283	333	616	124	293	32	8	269	72	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	252	227	47	9	1	5	20	80	3	2	1	207	280	322	602	115	292	32	8	267	71	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	245	220	45	8	1	5	20	78	3	2	1	205	280	318	598	114	290	32	8	264	69	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1882	1694	355	66	8	40	149	593	24	19	7	210	283	329	612	119	295	32	8	266	66	-66	+1	-2	+34	+41	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	123	23	3	14	51	205	8	7	2	210	282	332	614	121	295	32	8	266	66	-23	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3877	3492	697	125	17	71	306	1275	55	37	15	200	275	306	581	107	290	33	8	265	66	-125	+2	-4	+64	+77	1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	117	21	3	12	51	214	9	6	3	200	274	308	582	108	290	33	8	265	66	-23	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.9	1,949	37	19	207	278	320	+35	+24	2.1	2.1
/162	664	13	6	+11.9	+8.2	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Contreras (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	187/258/263	77	288	1	1	34%	7%	50	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	40→45	48→30	38	195/255/282	87	294	7	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/262	84	256	7	3	32%	6%	40	-3.0	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→50	44→45	37	186/262/264	78	301	7	6	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/269/325	121	300	13	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	42	-2.9	200/264/305	105	311	11	4	37%	7%	61	-1.5	205/282/349	144	303	16	3	35%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	41	39→40	44→65	38	195/256/276	80	309	6	7	37%	6%	51	-2.2	207/280/301	94	303	7	30	31%	7%	67	-1.1	200/278/292	91	290	6	42	30%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	39→31	42→45	46→30	38	189/254/293	104	302	8	3	38%	7%	55	-1.9	184/249/284	100	318	10	2	43%	6%	51	-2.2	242/289/361	119	320	16	1	29%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Brendon Davis 2018 · A	21	40→43	40→50	41→50	37	192/252/284	92	311	8	5	39%	7%	52	-2.2	193/254/271	78	300	6	4	35%	7%	50	-2.3	194/266/353	159	252	19	9	30%	7%	71	-0.6
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	40	41→50	48→40	35	192/245/289	98	307	8	5	39%	6%	50	-2.3	206/273/352	146	297	16	6	34%	7%	76	-0.4	199/268/348	150	286	16	5	34%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Narbe Cruz 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	45	41	202/279/277	74	301	5	7	32%	7%	61	-1.5	207/259/292	85	288	7	6	29%	5%	56	-1.9	206/258/296	90	291	8	6	30%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	189/270/254	65	297	3	5	34%	10%	53	-2.1	192/278/273	81	283	5	4	31%	10%	60	-1.6	178/270/257	78	255	6	2	30%	10%	51	-0.9
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	55	-1.9	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	59	-1.7	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	64	-0.5
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	205/264/287	82	287	5	8	29%	5%	57	-1.8	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	143/191/216	73	246	8	0	44%	5%	11	-1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps