Johan Contreras — OGILVIE

Johan ContrerasC FCL Yankees

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 218 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†44

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .258 / .263

PA68

HR1

K%34

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	58	11	2	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	190	230	276	505	86	345	46	5	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	0	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	108	15	4	0	0	17	53	6	1	1	139	290	176	466	37	273	40	13	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	44	5	0	0	1	3	26	0	0	0	114	170	182	352	68	235	55	6	141	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	72	68	5	1	0	0	2	45	2	0	0	74	125	88	213	15	217	62	3	114	-55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	0	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	NYY	—	68	62	11	2	0	1	5	23	1	1	0	177	250	258	508	81	288	34	7	242	44	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	NYY	34%	153	138	27	5	1	2	12	51	2	2	1	196	270	290	560	94	290	33	8	256	54	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	NYY	48%	278	250	50	9	1	5	22	89	4	3	1	200	275	304	579	104	291	32	8	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB	NYY	53%	368	331	68	12	2	7	29	116	5	4	1	205	279	317	597	112	292	32	8	271	65	-14	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.3
2030	25	MLB	NYY	55%	422	380	78	14	2	8	33	132	6	4	2	205	279	316	595	111	292	31	8	274	68	-15	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.4
2031	26	MLB	NYY	56%	455	410	85	15	2	9	36	143	6	5	2	207	281	320	600	112	292	31	8	276	69	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2032	27	MLB	NYY	55%	470	423	88	16	2	10	38	148	6	5	2	208	283	326	609	118	292	31	8	276	69	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2033	28	MLB	NYY	55%	476	428	89	16	2	10	39	150	6	5	2	208	283	325	608	117	291	32	8	275	69	-17	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.5
2034	29	MLB	NYY	53%	472	424	87	16	2	9	39	150	6	4	2	205	281	316	597	111	291	32	8	273	67	-17	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.3
2027	22	MLB	NYY	34%	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	18	1	1	0	208	283	312	596	104	291	34	8	247	48	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	NYY	48%	135	122	25	5	1	2	10	43	2	1	0	205	276	311	588	107	292	32	7	257	55	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	NYY	53%	194	174	37	7	1	4	15	61	3	2	1	213	286	333	620	121	294	31	8	263	60	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2030	25	MLB	NYY	55%	231	208	44	8	1	5	18	72	3	2	1	212	284	332	616	120	294	31	8	267	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2031	26	MLB	NYY	56%	253	228	48	9	1	5	20	79	3	3	1	211	283	325	607	114	294	31	8	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB	NYY	55%	259	233	49	9	1	6	21	81	3	3	1	210	284	335	619	124	294	31	8	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2033	28	MLB	NYY	55%	260	234	48	9	1	5	21	82	3	3	1	205	279	316	595	111	293	32	8	268	63	-11	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.1
2034	29	MLB	NYY	53%	252	226	46	8	1	5	21	80	3	2	1	204	280	314	594	111	292	32	8	266	62	-11	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1637	1473	307	57	7	33	130	516	21	17	6	208	282	324	606	115	294	32	8	265	61	-71	+1	-1	+29	+46	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	122	23	3	13	52	205	8	7	2	209	282	325	607	116	295	32	8	265	61	-28	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	3473	3124	619	112	14	63	278	1154	50	34	14	198	274	303	578	105	289	33	8	264	60	-156	+1	-2	+62	+98	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	116	21	3	12	52	216	9	6	3	198	274	306	580	108	289	33	8	264	60	-29	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	18	3	2	6	19	0	0	0	327	393	491	884	164	471	31	10	393	159	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	131	100	20	6	0	25	36	6	1	1	200	389	260	649	60	312	27	19	322	105	+1	-0	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	47	42	7	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	167	255	238	493	71	261	38	11	234	37	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	72	66	12	3	1	4	31	2	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	324	43	6	242	44	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,704	32	17	207	278	320	+30	+20	1.5	1.6
	/162	664	13	7	207	278	320	+11.9	+7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Contreras (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	186/258/263	76	288	1	1	34%	7%	44	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→55	44→45	37	185/262/263	79	305	7	6	39%	6%	46	-2.0	203/269/331	128	302	14	5	36%	6%	66	-0.6	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	190/271/255	65	295	3	5	34%	10%	46	-2.0	197/283/279	82	287	5	4	30%	10%	58	-1.2	185/278/265	80	263	6	2	29%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	40	41→50	48→40	35	192/245/289	98	307	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.2	207/273/364	157	295	18	6	35%	7%	76	+0.1	199/268/360	160	283	18	5	35%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Narbe Cruz 2022 · A	21	43	37→40	45	41	202/278/276	74	302	5	7	32%	7%	56	-1.3	208/260/292	84	290	6	6	29%	5%	51	-1.7	208/260/295	87	295	8	6	31%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Brendon Davis 2018 · A	21	41→44	40→50	41→50	37	193/253/285	92	312	8	5	39%	7%	46	-2.0	192/253/268	76	303	5	4	36%	7%	42	-2.3	198/270/373	176	251	22	9	30%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2007 · A	21	40	36→45	45→50	36	190/231/257	67	286	3	5	34%	5%	28	-3.2	196/248/279	83	269	7	5	28%	6%	42	-2.3	226/262/325	99	269	14	12	22%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	34	-2.8	200/265/307	107	312	12	4	37%	7%	57	-1.2	212/288/371	159	311	18	3	35%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	301	9	13	31%	7%	61	-1.0	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Kevin Ahrens 2010 · A	21	41→46	38→45	47→40	41	198/251/277	80	281	5	3	30%	6%	43	-2.2	198/257/302	104	262	10	3	27%	7%	53	-1.5	214/270/332	118	266	11	3	23%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4