Donovan Zsak

P Lake County Captains

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 203 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ALynchburg Hil…	26	31	7.26	4.29	28.3%	18.4%	—	K 20.9% · BB 21.7% · FIP 5.27
2026	23	A+CLE	34	46	3.15	3.71	30.0%	16.0%	—	K 23.1% · BB 18.4% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	24	MLBCLE	23	24	5.40	5.40	22.9%	17.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCLE	17	18	5.14	5.04	23.3%	15.3%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDillon Larsen (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119128vR 136

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%22.9%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.49	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.49	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.51	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	21.7%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.26	5.27	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	21.7%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.26	5.27	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	28.3%	18.4%	9.9%	2.0%	7.26	4.29	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.5%	3.15	4.85	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.5%	3.15	4.85	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	30.0%	16.0%	14.0%	2.0%	3.15	3.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CLE	23	0	24	101	23	18	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	17.8%	5.0%	2.9%	5.40	5.40	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	40	0	42	176	41	27	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	17	0	18	76	18	12	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	18	12	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.14	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	134	22	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.14	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		67	0	86	395	91	80	8	0%	1.3	23.0%	20.2%	2.8%	2.1%	4.48	4.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	915	211	185	19	0%	1.3	23.0%	20.2%	2.8%	2.1%	4.48	4.87	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Donovan Zsak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	22.9%	17.8%	2.9%	—	5.04	23.3%	8.0%	42	-0.36	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	90
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	90
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	87
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	87
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	87
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	87
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	86
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	83
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.2%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.48	19.9%	5.1%	59	-0.81	3.00	158	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	81
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	81
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	81
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	81
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	81
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	80
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	80
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	80
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.35	22.0%	11.5%	163	-0.36	3.90	265	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	23.1%	16.2%	1.12	5.24
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*