Payton Graham

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP A peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	18	63	5.12	4.03	23.8%	12.1%	—	K 16.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.68
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	7	7	38	5.39	5.39	18.5%	14.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	4	4	25	5.14	5.04	19.9%	12.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	7	7	39	4.94	4.84	20.7%	11.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsDane Acker (age 23) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23) · Brandon White (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%18.5%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	63	281	67	34	7	95%	3.3	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.12	5.68	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	63	281	67	34	7	95%	3.3	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.12	5.68	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	63	281	67	34	7	95%	3.3	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	2.5%	5.12	4.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	7	7	38	160	30	22	5	100%	5.4	18.5%	14.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.39	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	247	49	31	8	100%	5.8	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.0%	5.14	5.04	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	59	250	52	28	8	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.0%	4.94	4.84	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	59	250	53	28	8	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.83	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	246	52	28	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	25	106	21	13	3	100%	6.2	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.0%	5.14	5.04	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	39	165	34	19	5	100%	5.6	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.0%	4.94	4.84	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	42	22	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.83	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	50	211	45	24	6	100%	6.2	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	161	678	141	78	21	100%	5.9	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.47	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	97	26	100%	5.9	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		19	18	63	281	45	42	10	95%	3.3	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.12	5.68	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	57	200	887	142	132	33	95%	3.3	16.0%	14.9%	1.1%	3.7%	5.12	5.68	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Graham (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	18.5%	14.0%	3.1%	—	4.89	20.6%	8.9%	177	-0.50	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	80
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	80
Allen Webster R 2013 · 6.05 FIP	23	SP	6.05	15.9%	12.4%	5.0%	.309	4.66	14.0%	4.3%	167	-1.39	3.95	267	80
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	79
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	79
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	78
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	78
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	20.4%	11.9%	1.18	5.00
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71