Gage Stanifer

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #236MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP47ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ATOR	19	17	60	6.34	4.56	23.2%	18.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 21.4% · FIP 5.65
2025	21	MIX3 levels	27	16	110	2.86	2.23	35.5%	12.8%	—	K 27.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 2.85
2026	22	MIX2 levels	31	19	101	4.83	4.06	30.7%	14.3%	—	K 24.5% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	17	17	90	4.97	4.97	26.4%	16.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBTOR	10	10	56	4.77	4.68	26.5%	14.1%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBTOR	17	17	98	4.60	4.50	26.6%	12.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control43Command41FB velo57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 71%

CompsAustin Hansen (age 22) · Dean Deetz (age 23) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%26.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.2%	6.33	4.78	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	24.4%	11.9%	12.4%	1.6%	6.33	3.43	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.8%	6.34	4.56	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.9%	2.86	2.23	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.83	5.12	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.83	5.12	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	30.7%	14.3%	16.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	17	17	90	380	100	61	12	100%	5.3	26.4%	16.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	128	538	143	76	16	100%	5.5	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	147	621	165	80	19	100%	5.9	26.6%	12.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.50	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	27	27	159	672	178	84	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	157	662	175	82	20	100%	6.0	26.4%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	152	642	169	81	20	100%	6.1	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	145	613	160	79	20	100%	6.0	26.1%	12.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	136	576	148	76	20	100%	5.9	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	127	537	136	72	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	56	236	63	33	7	100%	5.6	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	98	414	110	53	12	100%	5.8	26.6%	12.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.50	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	127	536	142	67	16	100%	6.0	26.6%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	134	566	149	70	17	100%	6.1	26.4%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	135	570	150	72	18	100%	6.1	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	132	557	145	72	18	100%	6.0	26.1%	12.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	126	532	137	70	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	119	502	127	68	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	156	927	3912	1023	505	126	100%	5.9	26.2%	12.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.30	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	221	109	27	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		88	59	313	1378	317	221	31	67%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	881	203	141	20	67%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Stanifer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	26.4%	16.2%	3.0%	—	4.54	26.5%	13.5%	434	-0.43	—	—	—
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	83
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	81
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	80
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	78
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	77
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	77
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	76
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	76
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	75
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	24.1%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.11	21.9%	9.9%	127	+0.34	3.23	337	75
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	138	26.2%	13.2%	1.23	4.68
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Bob Turley ('51-'63, 17 WAR*)	8.6	156	27.0%*	13.0%*	0.97*	4.22*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45