Brandon Decker — OGILVIE

Brandon Decker P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%17.3%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	1.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	1.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	0.8%	3.61	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.3%	2.82	4.17	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.3%	2.82	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	NYY	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.1%	1.8%	2.82	3.20	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	26	4	4	1	0%	1.0	17.3%	14.4%	2.9%	2.6%	5.28	5.28	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	57	244	62	27	5	—	—	25.6%	11.0%	14.7%	1.9%	3.09	4.28	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	74	0	77	326	60	43	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	2.6%	5.10	5.05	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	74	0	77	326	62	42	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	2.7%	5.00	4.97	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	72	0	76	321	61	41	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.7%	6.4%	2.7%	4.98	4.98	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	70	0	74	311	59	40	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	5.05	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	67	0	70	297	56	39	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.0%	5.8%	3.0%	5.11	5.18	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	63	0	66	280	52	37	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.3%	5.2%	3.2%	5.26	5.36	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	25	18	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	2.6%	5.10	5.05	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	49	0	51	215	41	28	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	2.7%	5.00	4.97	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	56	0	59	249	48	32	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.7%	6.4%	2.7%	4.98	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	59	0	62	262	50	33	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	5.05	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	59	0	62	262	49	34	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.0%	5.8%	3.0%	5.11	5.18	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	57	0	60	253	47	34	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.3%	5.2%	3.2%	5.26	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		311	0	326	1378	259	178	39	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.9%	5.08	4.72	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	109	24	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.9%	5.08	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		59	20	136	597	114	74	9	34%	2.3	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	1.6%	3.32	3.93	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	29	200	880	168	110	14	34%	2.3	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	1.6%	3.32	3.93	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Decker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	17.3%	14.4%	2.6%	—	5.00	18.7%	5.8%	230	-0.28	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	88
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	88
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	83
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	82
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	81
Adam Leverett R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	24	SW	4.09	15.4%	10.8%	1.7%	.309	5.03	15.1%	7.4%	186	+0.94	3.41	401	80
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	80
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	79
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	79
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	79
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.7%	248	-0.19	3.67	383	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	73	18.6%	13.1%	1.09	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58