Brandon Decker
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.26
FIP5.26
K%17.3%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%3.2%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 85 | 379 | 92 | 41 | 3 | 68% | 3.4 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 3.61 | 3.90 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 85 | 379 | 92 | 41 | 3 | 68% | 3.4 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 0.8% | 3.61 | 2.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 21 | 2 | 33 | 140 | 39 | 13 | 3 | 10% | 1.6 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 49 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 5.26 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 100 | 424 | 88 | 53 | 11 | — | — | 20.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.3% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 54 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.09 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 101 | 68 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 4.61 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 160 | 107 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 19 | 117 | 519 | 99 | 63 | 9 | 41% | 2.6 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | 3.68 | 3.96 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 32 | 200 | 885 | 169 | 107 | 15 | 41% | 2.6 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | 3.68 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Decker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 17.3% | 14.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.99 | 18.7% | 6.0% | 203 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 86 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 86 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 84 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 81 |
| Raymar Navarro R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.2% | .332 | 4.29 | 11.8% | 1.0% | 41 | +0.17 | 4.12 | 108 | 81 |
| Brad Allen R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 81 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 81 |
| Dylan Spacke R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.23 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.74 | 13.6% | 0.2% | 52 | -0.49 | 2.08 | 205 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 80 |
| Engert Garcia R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.35 | 15.9% | 16.8% | 0.9% | .311 | 5.88 | 12.9% | -14.3% | 26 | +1.53 | 3.06 | 125 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 78 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 78 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 78 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 78 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 18.4% | 13.1% | 1.04 | 5.08 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |