Shai Robinson — OGILVIE

Shai RobinsonSS Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .270 / .255

PA4

HR0

K%37

BB%11

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	13	1	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	77	294	77	371		143	35	24	217	33	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	71	235	71	307		128	53	18	152	-11	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	71	235	71	307		200	53	18	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	13	1	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	77	294	77	371		143	35	24	217	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	71	235	71	307		128	53	18	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	71	235	71	307		128	53	18	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						291	25	0	247	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	150	132	25	4	1	2	16	53	1	2	1	189	282	280	562	91	292	35	11	256	60	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	52	47	8	1	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	170	250	255	505	85	292	35	10	252	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	52	47	8	1	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	170	250	255	505	85	250	35	10	252	52	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	99	12	0	12	62	225	0	12	0	168	248	250	498	82	248	35	10	252	52	-31	+2	+0	+7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	171	150	26	4	1	2	19	63	1	2	1	173	271	253	524	80	279	37	11	246	52	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	99	15	4	8	72	239	4	8	4	174	271	256	527	82	278	37	11	246	52	-31	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shai Robinson (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	179/270/255	76	291	1	1	37%	11%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	174/222/255	81	277	7	4	39%	5%	34	-3.5	184/241/265	81	306	8	5	40%	6%	44	-2.8	141/191/216	75	260	9	0	47%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	39→45	48→45	45	184/268/268	85	290	5	5	36%	9%	55	-1.9	177/255/277	100	266	8	5	34%	9%	52	-2.2	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	212/274/306	94	301	9	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	206/268/289	83	286	8	16	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Willy Diaz 2016 · A	22	39	38→40	43→40	46	187/275/268	81	281	6	3	33%	9%	58	-1.7	189/257/267	78	337	4	5	41%	7%	50	-2.3	169/224/243	75	318	2	4	44%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→34	40	49→55	33	186/229/277	91	285	8	9	37%	4%	41	-3.0	175/226/265	90	273	8	12	37%	5%	38	-3.2	148/203/228	80	231	8	13	38%	5%	19	-2.4
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/255/265	79	301	6	6	38%	7%	49	-2.4	185/264/273	88	311	8	5	40%	8%	55	-1.9	163/244/248	85	289	9	3	43%	7%	40	-1.2
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	183/249/251	68	277	3	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	179/238/250	71	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Jesus Chirinos 2023 · A	22	41→35	42→40	46→40	40	189/263/282	93	335	11	3	43%	9%	56	-1.9	192/272/291	99	347	10	4	43%	10%	61	-1.5	178/267/274	96	318	10	2	43%	10%	54	-1.1
✕Robertico Medina 2016 · A	22	35	39→40	51→45	40	167/256/251	85	295	7	9	42%	9%	47	-2.5	187/276/261	74	337	5	6	41%	10%	57	-1.8	149/259/185	36	298	2	3	44%	13%	32	-1.3
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	32→37	40→45	48→30	34	164/217/255	91	263	8	4	40%	6%	32	-3.7	193/231/313	120	266	14	3	32%	4%	51	-2.3	193/233/284	91	269	10	0	31%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	41→38	39→40	48→50	36	192/247/284	92	313	5	8	38%	6%	49	-2.4	192/264/291	99	321	8	8	39%	8%	59	-1.7	178/263/269	91	283	7	11	36%	9%	51	-1.6
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	39	39→45	47→45	38	186/242/277	91	282	4	6	34%	6%	47	-2.6	215/284/323	108	302	8	7	29%	8%	73	-0.6	225/307/355	130	299	13	7	27%	10%	87	+0.1
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	180/259/284	104	282	9	8	37%	8%	55	-1.9	203/277/297	94	309	7	5	34%	7%	65	-1.2	203/279/289	86	310	6	2	34%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	36→32	37→40	47→50	31	177/217/248	70	278	4	7	37%	3%	30	-3.8	212/252/296	84	302	6	10	30%	4%	53	-2.1	214/250/302	88	318	6	14	33%	3%	53	-1.2
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	34→33	40→50	46→40	37	174/232/263	89	269	9	3	37%	6%	40	-3.1	181/243/301	120	279	12	4	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/228/294	140	225	19	5	40%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→35	39→50	49→30	41	203/264/289	86	290	7	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	197/250/365	168	291	23	3	39%	6%	71	-0.8	177/231/332	154	254	22	1	39%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Gilbert Gomez 2014 · A	22	43→37	36→40	40→50	43	198/268/263	65	304	3	7	34%	8%	53	-2.1	182/262/260	78	284	4	8	34%	9%	51	-2.3	156/247/238	82	240	4	8	33%	10%	39	-1.5
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	183/257/279	96	281	10	6	36%	8%	53	-2.1	199/261/302	103	329	8	6	39%	7%	59	-1.6	183/243/303	120	312	8	3	41%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Connor Pavolony 2023 · A	23	39	42→40	48→40	48	183/285/284	101	297	9	6	38%	11%	66	-1.1	172/251/249	77	287	6	6	39%	8%	45	-2.7	135/210/192	57	223	4	2	38%	8%	14	-2.1
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	177/228/259	81	289	7	5	40%	4%	36	-3.3	191/228/268	77	268	5	3	30%	4%	38	-3.2	183/221/256	73	258	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8