Shai Robinson — OGILVIE

Shai RobinsonSS Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .267 / .255

PA51

HR1

K%37

BB%10

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	14	1	0	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	71	235	71	307		200	53	18	146	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	13	1	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	77	294	77	371		143	35	24	217	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	MIN	—	51	46	8	1	0	1	5	19	0	1	0	174	255	261	516	87	291	37	10	246	46	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIN	34%	150	133	25	4	1	2	15	53	1	2	1	188	275	278	553	90	292	35	10	255	53	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	MIN	46%	269	238	45	7	1	4	27	93	2	3	1	189	277	277	554	88	293	35	10	261	58	-13	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	MIN	34%	52	47	8	1	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	170	250	255	505	85	292	35	10	251	50	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	MIN	46%	124	110	21	3	1	2	12	43	1	1	0	191	276	291	567	100	293	35	10	257	55	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	176	157	29	4	1	3	17	61	1	2	0	185	269	280	549	96	277	35	10	255	53	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	108	15	4	11	63	225	4	7	0	186	271	283	554	97	279	35	10	255	53	-34	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	487	431	79	12	2	7	50	174	3	6	2	183	273	269	542	86	286	36	10	254	52	-26	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	105	16	3	9	67	232	4	8	3	183	272	268	540	85	285	36	10	254	52	-35	+0	+0	+7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	17	13	1	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	77	294	77	371		143	35	24	217	25	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	227	3	2	190	274	279	+2	+6	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	9	7	190	274	279	+7.1	+17.6	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shai Robinson (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	179/267/255	76	291	1	1	37%	10%	46	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	39→45	48→45	45	184/268/268	85	290	5	5	36%	9%	50	-1.8	175/256/274	99	265	8	5	34%	9%	46	-2.0	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	173/222/254	81	276	7	4	39%	5%	24	-3.5	183/241/264	81	308	8	5	40%	6%	36	-2.7	115/169/126	12	224	0	0	46%	5%	-33	-1.4
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	301	9	13	31%	7%	61	-1.0	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Jesus Chirinos 2023 · A	22	40→33	41→40	46→40	40	183/258/270	88	330	10	3	44%	9%	46	-2.0	186/266/281	95	341	10	4	43%	10%	52	-1.6	171/260/264	93	310	10	2	44%	10%	44	-1.2
✕Willy Diaz 2016 · A	22	39	38→40	43→40	46	187/275/268	81	281	6	3	33%	9%	53	-1.5	189/257/267	78	337	4	5	41%	7%	43	-2.2	169/224/243	75	318	2	4	44%	5%	20	-1.2
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	38→36	36→45	47→40	40	182/248/249	67	278	3	8	34%	7%	35	-2.8	175/232/242	67	239	6	4	28%	6%	27	-3.3	194/263/331	137	266	18	1	33%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	31→35	40→50	48→30	34	163/215/254	91	259	8	4	39%	5%	22	-3.7	193/230/321	128	266	15	3	33%	4%	46	-2.0	194/236/296	102	269	12	0	32%	4%	39	-1.2
✕Robertico Medina 2016 · A	22	35	39→40	51→45	40	167/256/251	85	295	7	9	42%	9%	40	-2.4	187/276/261	74	337	5	6	41%	10%	51	-1.7	149/259/185	36	298	2	3	44%	13%	23	-1.3
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	176/227/256	80	293	7	5	40%	4%	27	-3.3	191/228/270	79	271	5	3	30%	4%	30	-3.1	181/219/257	76	259	5	0	31%	4%	21	-1.8
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	39	39→45	47→45	38	186/242/277	91	282	4	6	34%	6%	40	-2.4	215/284/323	108	302	8	7	29%	8%	69	-0.4	225/307/355	130	299	13	7	27%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	33→31	40→50	47→40	37	170/225/259	88	261	8	3	37%	6%	27	-3.3	174/236/291	117	279	12	4	40%	7%	41	-2.3	158/222/310	152	235	22	4	42%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/255/265	79	301	6	6	38%	7%	43	-2.2	180/259/263	83	314	7	5	41%	7%	44	-2.1	156/236/234	78	290	8	3	45%	7%	25	-1.3
✕Alex Lavisky 2013 · A	22	36	42→40	46→30	35	185/231/286	100	277	11	3	36%	5%	37	-2.7	201/245/297	96	268	10	3	28%	5%	46	-2.0	192/236/276	85	241	10	1	24%	4%	34	-0.9
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	41→40	46→40	41	184/265/285	101	288	8	8	36%	8%	53	-1.5	205/278/297	92	316	7	5	34%	7%	60	-1.0	204/278/288	84	318	5	2	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Gilbert Gomez 2014 · A	22	42→35	36→40	40→50	44	195/267/261	66	302	3	7	34%	8%	46	-2.0	181/259/261	80	287	4	8	35%	9%	43	-2.2	157/243/243	86	247	4	8	35%	10%	29	-1.5
✕Joe Munoz 2016 · A	22	40→37	43→45	45→40	39	195/256/298	103	298	11	5	37%	7%	51	-1.7	214/278/333	119	314	11	6	33%	7%	69	-0.4	198/260/313	116	283	9	5	32%	6%	53	-0.9
✕J.V. Martinez 2021 · A	22	39→34	42→45	44→30	40	193/252/295	103	276	9	3	32%	6%	49	-1.8	199/255/310	111	282	10	4	31%	6%	53	-1.5	184/241/297	113	256	10	1	31%	6%	42	-1.0
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	184/257/280	96	282	10	6	36%	8%	47	-1.9	201/263/302	101	330	8	6	38%	7%	55	-1.4	188/249/306	119	317	7	3	40%	7%	46	-0.7
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	42→39	39→40	47→50	36	194/247/287	94	320	6	8	39%	6%	44	-2.1	192/262/293	101	323	8	8	40%	7%	53	-1.5	180/261/273	93	288	8	11	37%	8%	45	-1.5